3:36 AM
Highest wind gust at The Weather Observatory has been 46 mph.
Cape Girardeau 52 mph.
Carbondale, Illinois 62 mph.
3:35 PM
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY 326 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern White County in southeastern Illinois... Northeastern Pope County in southern Illinois... Northeastern Williamson County in southern Illinois... Saline County in southern Illinois... Hamilton County in south central Illinois... Southeastern Franklin County in south central Illinois... Northwestern Gallatin County in southern Illinois... * Until 415 AM CST. * At 325 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near West Frankfort to near Carrier Mills to 6 miles northeast of Dixon Springs, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Thompsonville around 330 AM CST. Harrisburg around 335 AM CST. Eldorado and Galatia around 340 AM CST. Mcleansboro around 345 AM CST. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Equality, Norris City and Ridgway. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
9 PM
Thunderstorms will continue to advance across the region tonight. Once again, a few storms could produce high wind.
I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm warning or two.
The tornado risk remains very low.
There will be widespread strong and gusty winds tonight. Wind gusts of 20 to 45 mph will be common-place as the low deepens to our north.
Then, pockets of greater than 45 mph can’t be ruled out.
I sent out an app message earlier concerning the overall storm and wind concerns. Unless something new develops then I won’t send any late night messages out.
If something specific or higher end develops, then I will send out messages.
I will monitor it.
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No changes to ting forecast.
Strong and gusty winds tonight. Gusts above 50 mph not out of the question. This could bring down power lines and tree branches. These will be non-thunderstorm winds.
Showers and thunderstorms could also produce high winds.
Be weather aware.
Rain totals continue to point to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois receiving the heaviest amounts.
As of 3 PM, this is what has fallen. Double click to enlarge.
Here is tonight’s technical discussion for the region.
This is what I am thinking, as well.
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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Strong wind gusts tonight could exceed 45 mph.
My two minute weather video update
Beau’s AM Weather. Longer version.
If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.
Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today into early Thursday morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could become severe Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Widespread strong wind gusts are possible even without thunderstorms. Damaging wind, small hail, and a short lived tornado will be the concern.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Likely. Locally heavy rain Wednesday and Wednesday night could cause commonly flooded areas to have issues. Field flooding, stream and creek flooding, and some ditches will overflow. The risk is highest across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time. Flurries are possible or light snow showers Friday evening.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, February 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 64° Wide range north to south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the weather radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Windy. Wind gusts above 50 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely before 3 AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 25 to 50 mph. Gusty. Becoming west.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High winds. Wet roadways. Lightning. Flooding. A few storms could be intense during the overnight hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the weather radars.
Moonrise: 8:20 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, February 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Windy, at times. A slight chance of a shower. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Higher gusts during the morning hours.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Windy. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated very late at night
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:20 PM
Moonset: 8:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, February 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Low Confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 2 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for black ice (low risk).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 10:20 PM
Moonset: 9:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, February 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset: 9:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, February 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Milder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: West becoming southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 5:32 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: PM
Moonset: 10:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, February 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 5:33 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:26 AM
Moonset: 10:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through February 10th: Thunderstorms Wednesday night could produce damaging wind, small hail, and a short-lived tornado.
CAPE is lacking. CAPE is energy that storms tap into. Wind shear will be strong. Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction with height.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild and windy today into tonight.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms today into tomorrow morning.
- Locally heavy rain possible. A flood watch has been issued for all of southeast Missouri. Illinois could be added to the watch, as well.
- Rain and rain/snow chances late Thursday night into Friday evening.
Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways this week. If they develop Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Monitor the risk of severe weather Wednesday night.
Several graphics from the NWS
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Current Weather Discussion
An active 24 hours ahead of us.
The weather continues to be active. It has been this way since mid-December when the pattern flipped from drought to frequent precipitation events.
An area of low pressure will push across Oklahoma today into Missouri. This low will rapidly deepen tonight as it moves into the Great Lakes.
This will produce a tight wind gradient across our region. Frequent wind gusts above 40 will likely occur late tonight into early Thursday morning. Some gusts above 50 mph are also possible.
Hrrr model guidance. It is showing a windy night ahead of us.
Gradient winds are caused by falling and rising pressure. Your home barometer will show sharp falls and rises with this system.
Expect a windy night. Don’t be surprised if you are awoken by the strong wind gusts. Secure loose items.
Here is the Hrrr model’s idea of wind gusts tonight from Poplar Bluff eastward.
Another aspect of this system will be locally heavy rain.
The heaviest rain totals will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A widespread one to three inches of rain is likely in this area. Then, tapering rain amounts as you move towards the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. That means lower totals from Evansville and Owensboro south southwest towards the LBL area of western Kentucky into northwest Tennessee.
There will be a sharp gradient of rain totals with this system.
The HRRR model shows that quite well.
Double click on this image to enlarge it.
Check out some of the totals being spit out by the Hrrr model. Now, don’t take this as gospel. Models are for guidance. I want you to take the general idea, however, of where the heaviest rain is likely to fall with this event. And, where the lower totals are anticipated.
As far as the threat of severe thunderstorms. The SPC does have us in a marginal risk zone. The lowest risk.
The light green zone is where lightning is possible, but sub-severe. The dark green is the marginal risk zone.
We are lacking CAPE with this event. CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into. Without CAPE you can’t have severe weather.
Thus, this raises questions on the extent of the threat.
The bottom line is that thunderstorms tonight could produce locally very strong wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Even showers, without lightning, could produce some big wind gusts, as well.
Let’s keep an eye on it.
You can see the Hrrr future-cast radar. It shows a thin line of storms late tonight. Sometimes, these thin lines of thunderstorms can produce high wind gusts.
Double click on images and animations to enlarge them.
Keep your Beau Dodson Weather Talk handy tonight. Keep the weather radios on, as well. Then, have a couple of additional sources for information.
The system will pull away from the region late tonight and early Thursday morning. This will keep the chance of rain centered on today into the Thursday morning hours of midnight to 3 AM.
A couple of wrap-around showers will be possible tomorrow. Overall, Thursday should be mostly dry.
A fast moving system will push across the region Friday. This will bring additional showers chances. The rain may mix with wet snow, as well.
Dry Saturday and Sunday.
I am watching another big rain event next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Busy weather ahead!
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers February 7, 2023 through February 13, 2023
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 14th through February 20th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 33 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers February 21st through March 3rd
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
Double click images to enlarge them.
February Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
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March Temperature Outlook
Double click images to enlarge them.
March Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
April Temperature Outlook
Double click images to enlarge them.
April Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
May Temperature Outlook
Double click images to enlarge them.
May Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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