10 PM Update
Rain, sleet, and snow is spreading across the area. Some light accumulation tonight. Slushy accumulation. I can’t rule out someone ending up with an inch or so of snow.
Temperatures are marginal for snow.
Watch bridges and overpasses.
Also,
The high resolution NAM model came in tonight fairly far north with the low Tuesday and Wednesday. A northern track would keep our region in rain with some snow over our northern counties. That would be northern portions of southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois.
The track of the low pressure center is key to whether we do or do not have snow.
I keep monitoring the data. I will know more Sunday night.
There is the satellite image of the system in question.
Satellite view. This will move southeast over the next 72 hours.
Still too early for an actual forecast. Stay tuned.
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Snow probabilities tonight. The Missouri Booth——-eel and northwest Tennessee and then northeast into Todd County have the lowest chance of snow.
Spotty sleet tonight, as well.
Saturday, January 21, 2023
Day one through three:
Rain and snow will develop Saturday night (tonight) into Sunday morning.
A slushy light accumulation of snow is possible. Watch bridges and overpasses, as they freeze first.
Lows tonight will range from 32 to 36 degrees.
Temperatures Sunday will rise into the forties.
Day four through seven:
A winter storm is forecast to impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Some snow accumulation is possible, but it is too early for certainties.
Temperatures may be marginal for accumulation. With that said, if the snow falls heavy enough then accumulation will occur.
Rain will develop in areas above freezing. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monitor updates. I will know more Sunday night.
Snow flurries or snow showers will be possible late Friday night and Saturday.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app over the coming days.
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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Saturday to Saturday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I will be watching another storm system next Tuesday into Wednesday. There are uncertainties about the storm track.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I will be watching another system next Tuesday into Wednesday.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. Colder air is possible behind a storm system next Tuesday and Wednesday.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Monitor. Some slushy snow accumulation is possible tonight and Sunday morning. None to an inch. Temperatures will be marginal for snow accumulation.
Another chance of snow arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Heavy snow is possible across portions of the region. This is highly dependent on storm track. Stay tuned.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Possible. Light freezing rain is possible Saturday night and Sunday night. At this time, impacts do not appear to be significant. Remember, it only takes a little freezing rain to cause problems on bridges, overpasses, and elevated surfaces. I will keep an eye on another system towards the middle of next week. Storm track is still in question.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Saturday, January 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few high clouds moving in during the afternoon. Patchy morning fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:08 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Increasing clouds. Rain showers spreading into the region from the southwest. Rain may mix with snow with light slushy accumulation possible.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: After 5 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Slushy snow accumulation.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:18 AM
Moonset: 4:55 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Sunday, January 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Rain may briefly mix with snow before 10 AM. Slushy accumulation possible in a few areas.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of an evening rain shower.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, January 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:10 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:46 AM
Moonset: 7:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of afternoon showers. Spreading southwest to northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars (see bottom of this page)
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 5:11 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Becoming windy. Rain and snow likely. Precipitation may be heavy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 35° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: East 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:19 AM
Moonset: 8:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain and snow. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. A chance of snow flurries or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset: 9:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, January 26, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 5:12 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:13 AM
Moonset: 11:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:14 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:39 AM
Moonset: :
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 28th: Not at this time.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Cool today. Increasing clouds from the southwest.
- Rain and snow chances tonight.
- Monitoring a larger system Tuesday into Wednesday.
Weather advice:
Monitor the risk of rain or a wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday night.
Monitor the risk of a weather event towards the middle of next week.
Current Weather Discussion
A calm day ahead. No weather concerns through 3 PM.
A storm system, taking shape to our southwest, will push into the region tonight.
There will be just enough moisture for light rain and snow to develop.
We do have some dry air aloft. There might be some virga on radar. Virga is where it appears to be raining/precipitating on radar, but nothing is hitting the ground. It evaporates.
With time, the atmospheric column will moisten up and precipitation will make it to the ground.
It will be just cold enough for a rain rain/snow mix. I can not rule out a dusting to an inch of slushy accumulation.
Here is the system on the Hrrr model guidance.
Most data shows accumulation, but ground temperatures will make it difficult for much in the way of accumulation.
I suppose if the snow comes down heavy enough, that a few spots pick up more than an inch of snow.
Either way, temperatures Sunday will rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Any snow that does fall will melt.
Be careful on bridges and overpasses. They freeze first.
Showers end Sunday afternoon.
Some lingering clouds Sunday night and Monday.
Our next storm system, that we have been talking about for a while, will arrive Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
This is a dynamic storm system with quite a bit of energy.
There is the potential for heavy snow and sleet over portions of our region. Locally heavy rain, as well.
We will need to monitor the track of the area of low pressure. That is going to be key to our forecast.
This system is still off the Canadian Coastline. Until it is better sampled, confidence won’t increase in the fine details of the forecast.
If this system is 25 to 50 miles farther north or south, then the forecast will change for your location.
The best I can do is tell you that a winter storm will impact our region.
Highest impacts will be in the snow and sleet zone.
Locally heavy rain is also possible with this event. Let’s monitor updates moving forward.
I will be posting videos and updates.
I will have a Facebook Live and Facebook thread Sunday night at 7 PM. I will try and stream it to another source, as well.
Another system arrives next weekend. A clipper type system with snow showers possible. The weather continues to look active into February.
Notice how the track of the low impacts who receives snow, freezing rain, sleet, and plain rain/storms.
Ensembles are trending a bit colder with more snow.
What are ensembles?
Here is the EC mean of its ensembles
Here are some ensembles (snow totals).
Canadian model
GFS American Model
EC European Center Model
EC European Model
Here is the Canadian model mean
Let’s look at some probabilities from the different models.
What is the chance of one inch or more of snow?
Canadian
EC model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers January 20th through January 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 27th through February 3rd
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers February 3rd through February 16th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
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March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
May Temperature Outlook
May Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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