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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
I will be off work Tuesday into Wednesday morning for a family funeral.
Have you signed up for the AWARE emails? I send these out before events that could produce severe weather or winter weather.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monday into Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into Monday night.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain over the next few days could cause some water issues in commonly flooded areas. Low-land flooding, fields, ditches, and streams. Widespread flash flooding is not expected.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Monday, January 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
** I will be off work Tuesday into Wednesday morning for a family funeral.**
Monday Forecast: Thickening clouds with showers and thunderstorms. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage through the day from west to east
Timing of the precipitation: After 5 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 15 to 30 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:35 PM
Moonset: 3:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday, January 3, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely early in the day and then a chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Most numerous during the AM hours.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming southwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the morning hours. Monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 35° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 35° to 40°°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 35° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Evening wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:10 PM
Moonset: 4:24 AM
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Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 25° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 2:51 AM
Moonset: 5:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, January 5, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~38° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~38° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 33° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:39 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday, January 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of late-night showers or a snow flurry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:39 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, January 7, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? LOW Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:29 PM
Moonset: 8:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Sunday, January 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 6:28 PM
Moonset: 8:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 6th: I am closely monitoring Monday into Tuesday. A few of the thunderstorms could be severe with damaging wind and hail. There is a low level risk of tornadoes. There remain questions about dew points. The severe weather risk will be higher if dew points reach the middle 60s.
Monitor updates over the next 48 hours. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.
- Locally heavy rain.
- A few storms could be severe with damaging wind and hail. Monitor updates.
- Cooler mid to late week.
Weather advice:
Monitor weather updates Monday into Tuesday. We are in a risk of severe weather.
Current Weather Discussion
** I will be off work Tuesday into Wednesday morning for a family funeral. **
I hope everyone had a nice New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
I will be off Tuesday for a family funeral.
I will be working Monday into Monday night. We could have some severe weather, but it is a conditional risk.
What does conditional mean?
It means some ingredients are missing.
There are questions about dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture. Typically, during the winter months, dew points above 58 degrees could produce severe weather.
We are expecting lower 60s with this event. If dew points rise into the middle 60s then the severe risk increases.
There is quite a bit of data that shows dew points lowering ahead of the cold front.
Let me show you what some of the high resolution data indictes.
Notice the dew points spreading northward. Quite a few 60+ readings.
Then, something happens and the dew points crash. This is ahead of the line.
I believe the complex of showers and thunderstorms that moves through during the afternoon hours and some additional storms to our south are causing this depression in dew points.
This would be good news if it happens. It would substantially decrease the risk of severe weather. It is something that I am closely watching.
Multiple data sets show this.
We will have plenty of wind shear for thunderstorms to work with. Typical for winter.
Wind shear is the turning of wind with height and the increase of wind speed with height. It is one ingredient in severe weather.
CAPE values of 500 to 1000 are anticipated. This raises concerns.
One change in the forecast is to increase the risk of severe weather Tuesday for portions of the region. We are in a low-risk Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. A few additional thunderstorms may form right along the cold front.
At this time, it appears the Tuesday afternoon risk would mainly be across Kentucky. Although, we will need to monitor southern Illinois and northwest Tennessee.
These storms will form right ahead of the cold front. Temperatures Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 60s. The atmosphere will be unstable.
The only question about Tuesday is lift. Will there be enough forcing along the cold front for new thunderstorm development, and will the morning line of thunderstorms work the atmosphere over to the point that it can’t recover. If it doesn’t recover, then severe weather chances will be low.
Another aspect of this event will be locally heavy rain.
A widespread one to two inches is anticipated. Then, pockets of greater than two inches are likely. If thunderstorms train over the same area then some reporting stations could receive quite a bit of rain.
Flooding will be possible where the heavier totals verify.
Our last system underperformed in the rain department.
This system has an abundant amount of moisture to work with. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app for updates.
Here are some of the rain totals that models are showing.
You get the general idea. Bands of locally heavy rain. Some areas could exceed two inches. The training of showers and thunderstorms is where the greatest risk of flooding will occur.
Monitor updates.
I do have a chance of a light shower late Friday night into Saturday. At this time, that appears to be a minimal event.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers January 2nd through January 8th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 9th through January 15th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 13th through January 26th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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