Friday, December 30, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Today. Another chance Monday into Monday night and perhaps Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday/Monday night. Perhaps into Tuesday morning. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain over the next few days could cause some water issues in commonly flooded areas. Low-land flooding, fields, ditches, and streams. Widespread flash flooding is not expected.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

Friday, December 30, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming variable in direction 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers. A thunderstorm possible. Patchy drizzle and fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Tapering coverage late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming north 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:12 PM
Moonset: 12:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Saturday, December 31, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A few showers will be possible. The bulk of the rain event will be over. I have lowered rain probabilities and may need to lower them more. Either way, the event ends Saturday.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Early morning wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:38 PM
Moonset: 1:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Sunday, January 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 PM
Moonset: 2:18 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Monday, January 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Thickening clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage through the day from west to east
Timing of the precipitation: After 9 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 25 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:35 PM
Moonset: 3:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Tuesday, January 3, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of mainly morning showers and thunderstorms. I will need to monitor the timing of the front in case rain lingers longer into the day.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the morning hours. Monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 35° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 35° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 35° to 40°°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 35° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 2:10 PM
Moonset: 4:24 AM

Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 25° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 25° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~25° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 25° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 25° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 25° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 2:51 AM
Moonset: 5:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday, January 5, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~38° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~38° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 33° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 3:39 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click the tab below.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through January 2nd: Severe weather is possible Monday into Monday night. At this time, I am tracking a cold front and area of low pressure that will move into our region. This places us in the warm sector. I can’t rule out severe weather. It is too soon to know the extent of the severe weather threat.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a day four outlook.

Here is the new outlook

SPC has not budged an inch in our region in three days.

Here was their previous outlook. You can see how this evolves over time.

This was their previous outlook.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.

The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Rain event underway.
2. Rain chances diminish later tonight into tomorrow morning.
3. Dry Sunday. Mild.
4. Monitoring the chance of additional thunderstorms, some possible intense, Monday into Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Weather advice:

Monitor updates concerning next week’s severe weather threat.

Current Weather Discussion

Our much anticipated rain event is underway.

Widespread rain is on the weather radars this

The bulk of the rain was located over Missouri and Illinois with scattered rain over Kentucky and Tennessee.

National radar shows showers and thunderstorms all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. You can see quite a bit of lightning, as well.

Those southern thunderstorms may rob us of some moisture today. We will have to wait and see. Either way, our region will experience widespread showers today with even a rumble of thunder possible.

It will be mild today with southerly winds ahead of the front. Winds will eventually switch around and come out of the north as the front passes through.

Before all is said and done, we will have a widespread 0.70″ to 1.40″ of rain in the region. Locally higher totals.

The highest totals are still expected to be from the Missouri Bootheel into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps far western Kentucky.

Here is what the WPC is forecasting

This takes us through this first event.

Double click on images to enlarge them.

This current rain event will begin to diminish later today into tonight.

By Saturday morning all that will remain will be a few showers over primarily our eastern counties.

The rest of the area will be drying out.

Saturday will be mild by late December standards. Above average temperatures.

Sunday will be pleasant and dry. Mild for December. Nice weather for a BBQ!

System number two arrives Monday and Monday night. This system will bring additional widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Locally heavy rain.

We will have to watch the severe weather threat, as well. It is still a bit early to know about that subject.

Here are the rain totals from now through next Wednesday. This graphic covers both events. The current one and the next one.

As you can see, the WPC has pockets of greater than three inches.

Some flooding can’t be ruled out. Mainly areas that usually have issues.

Severe Weather Concerns

Confidence in the threat of severe thunderstorms remains low.

As noted, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a risk of severe thunderstorms next week. Primarily Monday afternoon into late Monday night/Tuesday morning.

This could be an overnight event.

There do, however, remain significant questions about the extent of the severe weather threat.

For now, the highest risk is in Arkansas.

There are differences in the model guidance packages about the placement of the area of low pressure.

The GEFS ensembles continue to be farther north with the track of the low. The EC ensembles continue to be farther south with the track of the low.

The track does matter.

The EC would imply a higher risk of severe weather in our local area.

The EC is clustered over northern Missouri and southern Iowa with the area of low pressure.

The GEFS is clustered a bit farther to the north.

All is all, the GEFS has been trending towards the EC guidance. Farther south southeast with the low. So, that means we need to monitor this.

This system will arrive higher dew points to work with (the Monday one).

Typically, I watch for dew points of 58 and above when forecasting severe weather during the winter months.

The GFS model shows dew points spreading northward into our region Monday into Tuesday morning.

The EC model also shows high dew points in our region ahead of the cold front.

I will have a better handle on the severe weather forecast by Saturday night and Sunday morning.

By then, I will have more confidence in the data packages.

For now, let’s keep monitoring this event. Stay tuned.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app. I will be sending out updates.

I will likely do an aware email today.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.

They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.

You can barely see them on these graphics.

.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the system next Monday and Monday night.

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the system next Monday and Monday night.

This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers December 30th through January 5th

Click on the image to expand it.

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
.
This outlook covers January 6th through January 13th

Click on the image to expand it

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″

This outlook covers January 13th through January 26th

Precipitation outlook

Monthly Outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

December Temperature Outlook

December Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

January Temperature Outlook

January Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

February Temperature Outlook

February Precipitation Outlook

Winter Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Temperature

Precipitation

The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.

La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.

Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE

La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North

No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.

The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.

As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.

I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.

We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.

What is the NAO? Click here for more information.

Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.

What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.

We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.

People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.

We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.

Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.

Here is what will influence the winter.

ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

Outlook thoughts.

Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.

That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.

Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **

Temperature

Precipitation

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.