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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Today into Friday. Another chance Monday into Monday night and perhaps Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday/Monday night. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain over the next few days could cause some water issues in commonly flooded areas. Low-land flooding, fields, ditches, and streams. Widespread flash flooding is not expected.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Thursday, December 29, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers. A thunderstorm possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 11:21 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming variable in direction 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers. A thunderstorm possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Tapering coverage late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Wind south of the front will be from the south winds north of the front from the north 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:12 PM
Moonset: 12:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A few showers will be possible. The bulk of the rain event will be over. I have lowered rain probabilities and may need to lower them more. Either way, the event ends Saturday.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:38 PM
Moonset: 1:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday, January 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 AM
Moonset: 2:18 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday, January 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Thickening clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 9 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 25 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:35 AM
Moonset: 3:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 2nd: Severe weather is possible Monday into Monday night. At this time, I am tracking a cold front and area of low pressure that will move into our region. This places us in the warm sector. I can’t rule out severe weather. It is too soon to know the extent of the severe weather threat.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a day five outlook.
This was their previous outlook.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Feel that milder air streaming northward this morning!
- Rain chances ramp up today into Friday night.
- Rain ending Saturday.
- Monitoring the chance of additional thunderstorms, some possible intense, Monday into Monday night.
Weather advice:
Monitor updates concerning next weeks severe weather threat.
Current Weather Discussion
Good day, everyone.
My aunt Debbie Dodson passed away last night. She was a wonderful person. I can hear her laughter even now. She was always the person who brightened up the room.
I will be taking off for her funeral. I don’t know the arrangements, yet. I suspect they will be this weekend.
We do have a severe weather event Monday and Monday night. I will be back for that.
Rest in peace, Debbie.
Let’s talk about our weather.
If you have walked outside this morning, then you can already feel the change in the atmosphere.
It is milder. It is a bit humid.
Here were the 7 AM conditions. Radar and temperatures.
Satellite
This is the change we have been talking about for several days.
Today into early next week will be mild. Some days will reach into the 60s for high temperatures!
Of course, as always, there is going to be rain when it warms up this much in the winter.
I was a bit surprised we didn’t have fog. Usually when the ground is cold and warm air rushes back into the region, we will experience thick dense fog.
I have told everyone for months that we would likely go from one extreme to the next with this pattern.
We are about to do that.
Say goodbye to our drought conditions. We are about to swing towards much wetter than normal.
One rain event arrives today into tomorrow night.
The bulk of this event will be tonight into Friday night. A widespread 0.70″ to 1.40″ of rain is anticipated with pockets of one to two inches likely.
Here is what the WPC is forecasting
This takes us through 6 AM Sunday. This is event one.
You can see that band of higher totals right across our region.
System two arrives Monday and Monday night. This system will bring additional widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Locally heavy rain.
We will have to watch the severe weather threat, as well. It is still a bit early to know about that subject.
Here are the rain totals from now through next Wednesday. This graphic covers both events.
As you can see, the WPC has pockets of greater than four inches. We will see if that verifies. Either way, a lot of rain is on the way for the region.
Some flooding can’t be ruled out. Mainly areas that usually have issues.
As far as the severe weather concerns.
This system will arrive higher dew points to work with (the Monday one).
Typically, I watch for dew points of 58 and above when forecasting severe weather during the winter months.
That is enough fuel for thunderstorm development.
Wind fields will also be strong.
The 850 mb low level jet will increase Monday and Monday night.
Wind shear is another ingredient when forecasting severe weather.
Both the GFS and EC model show the 850 mb winds taking up as the system pulls through the region.
You can see the area of low pressure on this graphic.
The low will push from Kansas into Nebraska and eventually Iowa. Deepening as it moves northeast. This is a signal for severe weather.
The low is pretty far northwest. This raises some questions on the extent of the severe weather threat.
Bottom line:
We will continue to monitor trends in the guidance. For now, that is all we are doing.
It is a bit early for certainties on whether we will have severe weather.
It needs to be monitored.
I will be sending out app updates as necessary.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This is the system next Monday and Monday night.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This is the system next Monday and Monday night.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 29th through January 4th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 5th through January 12th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 10th through January 23rd
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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