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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Thursday and Friday. Another chance Monday into Monday night and perhaps Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday/Monday night. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor next week in case heavier rain develops. Some overland field flooding is likely if rain totals exceed a couple of inches. Ditches, as well. Some rises on area streams.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 15 mph. Gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of patchy light rain or drizzle late. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:21 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, December 29, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 11:21 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Tapering coverage late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:12 PM
Moonset: 12:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A few showers will be possible. The bulk of the rain event will be over.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16mph. Gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:38 PM
Moonset: 1:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday, January 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 AM
Moonset: 2:18 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday, January 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Thickening clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 9 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 25 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:35 AM
Moonset: 3:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 2nd: Severe weather is possible Monday into Monday night. At this time, I am tracking a cold front and area of low pressure that will move into our region. This places us in the warm sector. I can’t rule out severe weather. It is too soon to know the extent of the severe weather threat.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a day six outlook.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Black ice this morning. Be careful.
- Warmer weather today into the weekend.
- Widespread rain develops tomorrow into Friday night. Becoming scattered Saturday.
- Showers and thunderstorms return next Monday and Monday night. Locally heavy rain.
- Monitoring the risk of severe weather next week.
Weather advice:
Watch out for icy road conditions.
Current Weather Discussion
I promised you can active weather pattern and that is what we are getting.
Precipitation chances every few days.
First, let’s talk about black ice.
We do have black ice this morning in some areas. Use caution, as you have been over the last few days.
Today will be the last day of any ice threat. Thankfully.
Our historic cold blast is ending and here comes spring!
Temperatures area going to rise into the 50s and 60s over the coming days and that will linger into early next week.
Of course, when it warms up this much in winter we do take note and we do pay attention. That typically means heavy rain and even storms.
Our rain chances will begin to ramp up tonight. Scattered or patchy drizzle will be possible late tonight into tomorrow morning. Some fog, as well.
Then, rain chances will rapidly increase Thursday evening and night and that will linger into Friday and begin tapering off Friday night into Saturday.
I have low end rain chances for your Saturday. The bulk of the event will be over.
Expect widespread 0.6 to 1.2″ of rain from tonight through Saturday. Locally higher totals are possible.
Here is what the WPC has put out for rain totals.
Clouds will linger into Sunday.
We are going to have gusty winds today into at least Friday. Winds will occasionally gust above 30 mph. Mostly from the south southeast.
That is what will bring the warm air northward from the Gulf of Mexico.
Relatively calm and mild weather Saturday and Sunday. A tad cooler than the next few days but still above seasonal averages.
Typically our high temperatures are near 40/42 degrees and overnight lows are around freezing. Those are averages for this time of the year.
Another storm system rapidly winds up Sunday night to our west southwest.
That system will then move into the Missouri Valley Monday and Monday night. This will bring a strong cold front sweeping eastward into our region.
Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms will accompany the front.
There are some signals for severe thunderstorms (as mentioned above). The signal, however, is still six days out. That is a long way out in weather-land.
Let’s not overly stress on this, yet. We have several days to monitor it.
The GFS and EC do show dew points rising into the 60s. That is one ingredient for severe thunderstorms.
I always watch for 58 degrees and above during the winter months for the threat of severe weather. Anything in the 60s is plenty moisture for storms.
EC dew point map for Monday night.
]GFS dew points Monday night.
Both models show 850 mb low level jet wind fields increasing, as well.
That is another ingredient. Wind shear. Strong low level jet winds can help fuel thunderstorms.
EC model 850 mb winds Monday night.
GFS mode. 850 mb winds Monday night. Low level jet feeding moisture northward.
I will be on top of it and updating as we move forward.
A few showers may linger into Tuesday, but the bulk of the event may be over by then.
No winter in sight.
I am watching the middle and end of January and especially as we move into February for harsher winter weather. We shall see. That is a long way off, as well!
Winter isn’t over. This is just a roller-coast ride of temperatures.
Rain totals through next Tuesday will range from 1 to 2″ with some locations possibly receiving over 3″.
The WPC has posted this graphic. This covers both rain events. This will fluctuate some, but you get the general idea.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 28th through January 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 4th through January 11th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 10th through January 23rd
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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