10 AM Update
Some new snow maps. Different models. Different ideas.
If the snow if fluffier then my one to three inch forecast suddenly becomes three to five inches!
10:30 AM Radar. Blue is snow. Purple heavier snow. Green is rain. Temps.
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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Low risk. A low risk of thundersnow Thursday afternoon and evening.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Wind chill values will be bitterly cold behind the front Thursday through Sunday night. At times, wind chill temperatures will fall to -20 (or colder) degrees!
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Yes. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. For now, light accumulation of a dusting/1″ to 3″ appears likely. Pockets of 2″ to 4″ over northwest Kentucky. A flash freeze is likely behind the cold front Thursday. That means any moisture from the rain could freeze quickly on surfaces.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Monitor/low risk. Low risk Thursday.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Thursday, December 22, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Winter Storm Alert/Wind Chill Warning
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Thursday Forecast: Becoming windy. Scattered showers. Rain may change briefly to freezing rain, sleet, and then quickly change to all snow. Snow could be briefly heavy with near white out conditions at peak snow. Thundersnow possible. Some snow accumulation likely. Timing of the front is likely going to be late morning and early afternoon over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and then afternoon everywhere else. Rain first. Then snow.
Flash freeze likely behind the front. A flash freeze is where moisture from rain freezes after temperatures fall so quickly that the rain hasn’t had time to dry off of parking lots, driveways, and so on.
The cold air may hold off area-wide until after 11 AM (give or take).
A period of heavy snow is possible right along and behind the front. This will lower visibility with strong wind gusts. Do not get caught out in this storm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80% with 2 to 4″ of snow.
Southeast Missouri ~ 80% with 1 to 3″ of snow.
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80% with 1 to 3″ of snow.
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90% with 2 to 4″ of snow.
Southern Illinois ~ 90% with 2 to 4″ of snow.
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90% with 2 to 4″ of snow.
Far western Kentucky ~ 90% with 2 to 4″ of snow.
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90% with 2 to 4″ of snow.
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90% with 3 to 5″ of snow.
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90% with 1 to 3″ of snow.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 52° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 52° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast becoming south southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front. Perhaps icy roads if snow develops or remaining moisture freezes. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and finish your activates before the cold front arrives.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:
Winter Storm Alert/Wind Chill Warning
Cloudy with snow likely early. Thundersnow possible right behind the cold front (by that time it will be near our far eastern counties). Blowing snow where snow accumulates. Whiteout conditions where snow accumulates more than a few inches and/or falls at a moderate pace. Bitterly cold. High winds likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40% early
Southeast Missouri ~ 40% early
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40% early
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80% early
Southern Illinois ~ 80% early
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80% early
Far western Kentucky ~ 90% early
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90% early
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight. Ending west to east.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ -5° to 0°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 4°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 2° to 5°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ -5° to 0°
Southern Illinois ~ 0° to 5°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 2° to 5°
Far western Kentucky ~ 3° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 4° to 8°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 35 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -30° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Whiteout conditions where snow falls at a moderate pace. Lightning. Icy roads. Bitterly cold wind chill values. High wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:24 AM
Moonset: 3:51 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Friday, December 23, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Wind Chill Warning
Friday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 4° to 8°
Southeast Missouri ~ 5° to 10°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 8° to 12°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 5° to 10°
Southern Illinois ~ 6° to 12°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 6° to 12°
Far western Kentucky ~ 5° to 12°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 6° to 12°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 6° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 8° to 14°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -25° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front. Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ -5° to 0°
Southeast Missouri ~ -2° to 4°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 3° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ -5° to 0°
Southern Illinois ~ -2° to 0°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ -2° to 5°
Far western Kentucky ~ 2° to 5°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 2° to 5°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 2° to 5°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 3° to 6°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -20° to 0°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold temperatures.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 7:38 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Saturday, December 24, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 13° to 16°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 18°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 13° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 16°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 15° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 4°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 4°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 3° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 3° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 3° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 3° to 6°
Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -6° to 5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold temperatures.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:41 AM
Moonset: 6:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, December 25, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold morning hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds overnight. A chance of light snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10° to 15°
Far western Kentucky ~ 10° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick roads if snow develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 AM
Moonset: 7:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, December 26, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 20°
Southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 15° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 15° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 15° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 15° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 15° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 15° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 14° to 18°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:10 AM
Moonset: 8:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 9:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 35° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 35° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:21 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through December 30th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Bitterly cold air is on the way. Focus on impacts within this forecast. Cold temperatures.
- Rain likely and milder ahead of the front Thursday.
- Flash freeze likely behind the front with rapidly falling temperatures.
- Rain changing to snow Thursday afternoon and evening. Heavy snow possible briefly. Whiteout conditions possible at peak snow.
- Monitoring snow chances Sunday night and Monday.
Weather advice:
Monitor updates. An active weather pattern over the new few weeks. Several chances of precipitation.
Current Weather Discussion
Let’s go straight to the primary topic.
THIS AFTERNOON
- Scattered light rain blankets the area this morning. Drizzle/light rain. This is causing surfaces to become damp.
- The bitterly cold air is racing across Missouri as I type this (6 AM). It will reach southeast Missouri between 11 AM and 12 PM.
- The front will push across the entire area by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will fall like a rock behind the front. Highs in the 40s ahead of the front and in the single digits to teens behind the front.
- Light winds ahead of the front. Wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph behind the front.
- Rain will rapidly change to snow behind the cold front. Some accumulation likely. Blowing snow, as well.
- Icy road conditions will develop as the cold air pushes through the region.
- Near whiteout conditions where snow falls heavily.
THIS EVENING
- Snow continues but begins to taper from west to east.
- Wind chill values will fall below minus ten.
- Air temperatures will drop into the single digits.
- Icy road conditions.
TONIGHT
- Snow tapers off to flurries.
- Wind chill values of -10 to -25 degrees.
- Air temperatures of -5 to 5 above.
- Wind gusts above 40 mph.
FRIDAY
- Flurries possible.
- Bitterly cold with highs of 6 to 12 degrees.
- Wind chill temperatures of -25 to -5
FRIDAY NIGHT
- Bitterly cold wind chill values of 0 to -20.
- Air temperatures of -5 to 5 above.
Locally colder wind chill values are possible. It is rare to have a system with wind chills this low.
Here is the timing forecast for the cold air. Give or take.
A few graphics.
Icy roads, high winds, and bitterly cold temperatures are likely over a large section of the central and eastern United States.
This is a high impact travel event. This is a high impact cold event.
Signals are now 100% that the cold air will sweep across our region. It is coming. It has been well advertised.
You can see that cold air, as of 5 am, on the temperature map.
Double click the map to enlarge it.
Winds right behind the front will become strong and gusty.
Rain will fall this morning. We already have numerous reports of light drizzle and rain in the region.
This rain will mean wet pavements and roadways. That will turn to a thin layer of ice as temperatures fall.
How much snow is the question. Thundersnow is also possible.
Let’s dig right into this.
Once again, I remind everyone to focus on the impacts of the forecast.
The impacts will be
- Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values. Wind chill values of -5 to -25 are likely later today into Saturday morning.
- Busted pipes
- An increased risk of house fires
- Frost bite on exposed skin (15 to 30 minutes frost bite can occur)
- Harsh conditions for livestock and outside animals.
- Icy road conditions. Hazardous driving conditions. Near white out conditions where snow fall heavily for brief periods of time.
It will warm up ahead of the front. Don’t be surprised if some locations hit 45 degrees today! Then, temperatures will fall into the teens immediately behind the arctic cold front. Not soon after that, temperatures will fall into the single digits.
This will be a real shock to the system. You will walk outside one hour and only need a light jacket. The next hour you will need to be fully bundled up and shivering!
The cold air will arrive during the late morning into the afternoon hours. I am telling people to wrap up their non-important activates by 11 AM.
The front will first arrive over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. From 10 am to 1 pm. The front will sweep across the rest of the region between 12 PM and 5 PM.
Here is the high resolution Hrrr model shows for the colds arrival time. Give or take an hour or two. Give the model some room for error.
Again, you likely have most of Thursday afternoon to wrap up your activities.
Missouri View
And wind chill values
Rest of the region. I zoomed in for you.
And wind chill values
Here is the temperature anomaly map. How many degrees below average will we be?
This is the GFS model guidance. Average highs are around 40/42 degrees. Average lows are in the lower 30s.
WELL below average temperatures behind the cold front.
Rain totals of 0.00″ to 0.15″ will occur today ahead of the cold front. Not much, but just enough to perhaps wet the roadways. This will mean a thin layer of ice under the snow.
The rain will quickly change to freezing rain and sleet (That will last less than 15 minutes) and then snow. The snow will last several hours.
It appears that most areas will experience 3 to 6 hours of snow.
Locally moderate to heavy snow is possible. High winds will create low visibility. Where snow accumulates, there will be blowing and drifting snow.
Thundersnow is possible.
The front will first arrive in southeast Missouri and then push eastward rapidly. See graphics above.
Temperatures will fall 20 to 30+ degrees in one to two hour.
Some stats from yesterday. Incredible.
This will lead to a flash freeze. What is a flash freeze? A flash freeze occurs when temperatures fall so quickly that moisture left over form rain freezes on parking lots, driveways, sidewalks, and so on.
That moisture comes from the rain that feel in the milder air. This can cause slick spots.
I am forecasting a widespread one to three inches of snow.
Northwest Kentucky may end up with 3 to 5 inches of snow. I did increase snow totals a bit in that area. Perhaps a small portion of southeast Illinois, as well.
Otherwise, general snow totals of 1 to 3″ will be the going forecast. Whether it ends up being 1 to 3 or 2 to 4″ the impact will be the same.
Icy roads. Blowing snow.
The bitterly cold temperatures are a concern.
Check on elderly people. Make sure they are properly using space heaters and other heating devices. Typically, during this kind of cold weather we have an increased risk of house fires.
People are also trying to save money. Electric bills are higher than they were a year ago. Thus, some people may try new types of heating methods. Again, this can cause issues.
Exposed skin can get frost-bite quickly in temperatures like those being forecast. Make sure kids and adults cover fingers, ears, and exposed skin.
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Wind chill values could dip below -10. Bitterly cold temperatures.
That concern will be Thursday into Saturday night/Sunday morning.
All in all, this is a cold wave event. Perhaps some snow (no promises on the snow portion of the forecast).
Cold cold cold.
I am watching a fast moving system Sunday night into Monday. Light snow showers will be possible with it. Confidence continues to be low on that event. I did move it up twelve hours, as well.
A warming trend is expected towards the middle end of next week.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 22nd through December 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 29th through January 4th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 3rd through January 16th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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