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Several area newspapers will have tornado book inserts. The book will tell the stories of those impacted by the December 10, 2021, tornado outbreak. Here are the dates for the different newspapers.
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Lightning is possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not expecting flash flooding. Locally heavy rain will be possible Tuesday afternoon and night. Perhaps some ditch flooding. Commonly flooded areas could have standing water.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. Friday night.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time. I am watching Sunday night into Monday night. For now, this appears to be a light precipitation event.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Not at this time.
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers over our western counties. Showers will first move into southeast Missouri and southeast Illinois. Spreading eastward with time.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None far east. Becoming numerous far west.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely during the late morning into afternoon/evening hours. Increasing coverage.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Mainly western counties (southeast MO and southwest IL). Decreasing chances middle and eastern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely before 3 AM vs after 3 AM. Decreasing coverage through the night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast becoming southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
Moonrise: 9:36 PM
Moonset: 11:11AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A few scattered morning showers. Rain redeveloping during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early becoming numerous again during the afternoon.
Timing of the precipitation: Scattered early in the day. Increasing coverage during the afternoon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: W SW 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Rain ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: W 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:38 PM
Moonset: 11:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday , December 16, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: SW 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:36 PM
Moonset: 12:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday , December 17, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: W 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow flurries. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Saturday, December 18, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow flurries. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:30 AM
Moonset: 12:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, December 19, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Increasing high clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely after 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Hazardous road conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:39 AM
Moonset: 1:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through December 26th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain!
- Windy conditions.
- Colder as we move through the week. A slight chance of snow flurries.
- Watching a system Sunday night/Monday.
Weather advice:
Monitor updates. An active weather pattern over the new few weeks. Several chances of precipitation.
Current Weather Discussion
Good day, everyone.
Rain showers will move into southeast Missouri later today and that rain will overspread the region tonight.
I did slow the timing of the system by a few hours.
Infra-red satellite shows a band of showers and thunderstorms to our west. Those bright colors in Oklahoma and Texas are high cold cloud tops. Thunderstorms.
Radar shows heavy snow in Colorado into the Dakotas. A band of rain ahead of the cold front from Iowa into Texas.
This rain will push into the region later today and especially tonight.
Double click graphics to enlarge them.
We will have gusty southerly winds today and tonight. Occasional wind gusts will top 30 mph.
Radars will begin to show precipitation as we move through the afternoon hours. By this evening and tonight, widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will be advancing across our region.
The Hrrr model shows that precipitation.
5 PM this evening. Rain will move into our western counties. Spreading eastward.
8 PM tonight.
12 AM tonight.
5 AM tomorrow
Tomorrow afternoon. Rain redevelops as a wave of low pressure moves along the front.
Rain will exit tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.
Temperatures will turn cooler by Thursday and cold by Thursday night into the weekend.
Highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Lows will drop into the 20s. Nothing extreme, but certainly colder than today.
A few snow flurries will be possible Friday and Saturday.
Another storm system approaches the region by Sunday night into Monday night. This system has the potential to spread light precipitation back into the region.
It may be cold enough for snow Sunday night into Monday night. I will need to fine tune the timing of that system.
The model data does not agree on totals or even placement of the heavier precipitation.
Some of the data shows light precipitation. Some data shows heavier precipitation.
For now, I am monitoring trends in the guidance. It is too soon to know if snow will accumulate.
I am watching another system around Christmas. For now, that is in the extended long range. There isn’t any confidence in model guidance that far in advance.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 13th through December 19th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 20th through December 26th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers December 27th through January 9th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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