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Several area newspapers will have tornado book inserts. The book will tell the stories of those impacted by the December 10, 2021, tornado outbreak. Here are the dates for the different newspapers.
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Sunday to Sunday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Lightning is possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Locally heavy rain will be possible Tuesday afternoon and night. Perhaps some ditch flooding. Commonly flooded areas could have standing water.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time. Snow showers are possible this coming weekend. At this time, accumulation does not appear to be an issue.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Not at this time.
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly cloudy. Clouds may thin some during the afternoon. Patchy drizzle.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Patchy drizzle
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Dense fog possible. Watch bridges and overappses/elevated surfaces. Patchy dense fog can cause slick spots.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Watch for slick spots in areas of dense fog. Moisture can freeze on surfaces.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:37 PM
Moonset: 10:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, December 12, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Then, clearing. Becoming partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:36 PM
Moonset: 10:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy. Precipitation moving in from the west/southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous as the day wears on
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely during the late morning into afternoon/evening hours. Increasing coverage.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain. A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely before 2 AM vs after 2 AM. Decreasing coverage through the night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: S SE 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
Moonrise: 9:36 PM
Moonset: 11:11AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of morning showers. Becoming partly sunny. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before noon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: S SW 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over our eastern counties. I will keep a close eye on a second wave of low pressure that could develop across the Gulf of Mexico. If that were to develop then rain would need to be introduced to at least our southern and southeastern counties. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (east)
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: W 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:38 PM
Moonset: 11:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday , December 16, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Low confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cooler. I will keep a close eye on a second wave of low pressure that could develop across the Gulf of Mexico. If that were to develop then rain would need to be introduced to at least our southern and southeastern counties. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: W 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:36 PM
Moonset: 12:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday , December 17, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of snow flurries. Colder. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: W 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A snow flurry will be possible. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Saturday, December 18, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32 to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A snow flurry will be possible. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 22°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:30 AM
Moonset: 12:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through December 26th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Dense fog tonight.
- Widespread rain event Tuesday and Tuesday night.
- Colder as we move through the week. Snow flurries this weekend.
Weather advice:
Use caution tonight as dense fog develops. Freezing fog will be possible where temperatures fall below freezing.
Current Weather Discussion
No weather concerns today.
We will have widespread fog tonight. Temperatures will dip below freezing across portions of the area. Where this happens, there could be some patchy slick spots on bridges and overpasses.
Monday and Monday night will be the lull before our next rain maker.
A large storm system will wind up in the Central Plains Monday into Tuesday. This system will bring blizzard conditions to portions of Nebraska into the Dakotas.
Widespread winter storm watches blanket the Central and Northern Plains. That would be the blue zone.
Our region will be on the southeast side of the low pressure center. That means we are on the warm side.
Rain showers will develop Tuesday morning over southeast Missouri and will increase in both coverage and intensity.
You can see that on this graphic.
Tuesday afternoon. Previous six hour rain totals. Rain will push west to east.
Thursday night into early Wednesday morning. Previous six hour rain total potential.
The rain will shift east into the afternoon and evening hours. Overspreading our region.
There will be locally heavy downpours with this system. I am expecting a widespread 0.6 to 1.2″ of rain. There is the possibility of higher totals.
I was forecasting a widespread on to two inches. The system appears to be speeding up just a tad. That could lower the rain totals.
One note of interest is the potential for a second wave of low pressure to develop across the Gulf of Mexico. This would then move northeast into the Appalachian Mounts. If that happens, then it would throw additional rain showers into our region. Especially our southern and southeastern counties.
Confidence on this happening is low. I am monitoring it. For now, I have left off rain chances for Thursday.
The EC model shows the potential.
These are ensembles. Ensembles are the same model ran over and over again with slightly different beginning variables.
Some of the ensembles show the second low. Some do not.
The EC ensembles showing where a center of low pressure would track is also showing this idea.
See the second group of L’s to our south southeast? That is a new center of low pressure. What we call a secondary low.
I will keep an eye on it. Worse case, we increase rain chances Wednesday into Thursday.
Seasonably cold air will move into the region Friday into the weekend.
This cold push of air will arrive on gusty west northwest winds. That will make it feel colder.
Highs by the weekend may struggle to reach forty degrees. Brrr.
I can’t rule out some snow showers. The bulk of the snow showers would be over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
You can see that on the GFS model. Light blue would be snow flurries or snow showers.
In the long range, I continue to watch several systems before and around Christmas.
The GFS model shows these systems from time to time. This is in the extended long range. Thus, confidence in the details will remain low.
December 20th GFS model map.
December 22nd. From time to time, the GFS shows a larger system around Christmas.
I am not forecasting snow, yet. I am simply watching trends in the different guidance packages.
Let me show you some charts.
It is likely that several cold waves will impact our region in the extended long range.
Just how cold is the question. And, will there be some snow.
Check out the GFS temperature anomaly maps. These maps show you how much above or below temperatures could be. I say could because it is in the extended long range.
This one is in the short range. Check out the warmer air ahead of the cold front Tuesday. Warm air pulling northward and colder air moving southward (behind the low).
By this weekend, temperatures will have fallen below average. Highs may struggle to reach forty degrees.
We move farther out in time. December 22nd. Cold air remains in the region.
December 23rd. Brrr.
Christmas Day. Bitterly cold air on the GFS.
Let’s monitor trends!
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 9th through December 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 16th through December 22nd
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers December 23rd through January 5th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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