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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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into www.weathertalk.com and then click the payment tab. Thank you
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Isolated lightning risk today. A higher chance as we move into Tuesday of next week. I will watch Monday night and Wednesday of next week. The focus is likely to be Tuesday and Tuesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. I am closely watching next Tuesday and Tuesday night.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Not at this time. A
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain. An isolated rumble of thunder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast becoming east southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Any remaining showers will come to an end. Patchy fog and drizzle developing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Ending west to east.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 9 PM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 7:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Friday, December 09, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Patchy fog and morning drizzle. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Patchy morning drizzle
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of late night showers over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 1 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways over southeast Missouri
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:44 PM
Moonset: 8:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, December 10, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:38 PM
Moonset: 9:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:37 PM
Moonset: 10:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, December 12, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain after midnight. A rumble of thunder possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
Moonrise: 8:36 PM
Moonset: 10:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of intense storms. A bit early to know about that.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: S becoming SW 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of intense storms. A bit early to know about that.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
Moonrise: 9:36 PM
Moonset: 11:11AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through December 15th: I am watching next Tuesday and Tuesday night. Severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out, but it is still a bit early for certainties. Monitor updates.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Widespread rain! Much needed rain.
- Updated drought maps (these maps won’t yet reflect the current rainfall).
- Showers Saturday.
- A storm system next week.
- Unsettled long range with multiple precipitation chances. Winter is that you?
Weather advice:
Monitor the forecast over the coming weeks. An active weather pattern is developing.
Current Weather Discussion
Good morning, everyone. I am running a bit behind this morning.
Widespread rain has pushed into the region. Beneficial rains.
Drought continues to be a widespread issue around our region.
Here are the latest drought maps.
Again, those don’t reflect today’s rain. That will be reflected in next weeks update.
Widespread rain will continue through the morning hours. Rain will become increasingly scattered this afternoon and end tonight.
Friday will be dry.
A few showers will move back into the region Friday night (late).
Shower chances continue to increase Saturday morning. Those will be in and out of here fairly rapidly. Decreasing rain coverage during the afternoon hours.
Saturday night through Sunday night is likely to be dry.
A large system is forecast to take shape across the central United States Monday into Tuesday.
This has been a much talked about system on Twitter and social media.
The concern is an outbreak of severe thunderstorms somewhere from Texas and Oklahoma into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Whether our region experiences severe weather is questionable. There are questions about how far north the higher dew points will move.
Dew points are a measure of moisture. Typically, during the winter months, we look for 58 degrees and above for dew point readings.
Dew points in the 60s are more than sufficient for severe weather.
I am closely monitoring trends. There is no point scaring people days and days in advance of a system. There are many systems that “appear” to be a concern, but then when we draw closer to the event it doesn’t materialize.
Winter storms are the same way. We just aren’t that good at forecasting these events days and days in advance.
Yes, we can give you a general idea 5, 6, and 7 days out. The details, however, don’t come into focus until we are closer to the event.
I am watching Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some of the data shows the system occluding and cutting off. That could mean rain lingers into Wednesday.
In the super long-range it appears the pattern will be active with several chances of rain or snow between now and the end of the month. Of course, details will need to be worked out. Monitor updates.
I will be speaking in Cayce, Kentucky this coming Saturday.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 8th through December 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 15th through December 21st
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers December 20th through January 2nd
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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