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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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into www.weathertalk.com and then click the payment tab. Thank you
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. A chance of lightning today through Thursday night. Another chance Monday and Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. I am closely watching next Monday night through Tuesday night.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Not at this time. A
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. A thunderstorm will be possible. Higher rain chances far south vs north. Mainly the first half of the day. Patchy dense fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: None north to numerous far south.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher coverage the first portion of the day.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming North northeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? For most of the area, no. Far southern counties should have a plan B the first half of the day.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Widespread rain. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:34 PM
Moonset: 5:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast becoming east southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain ending west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Ending west to east.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 7:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Friday, December 09, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast to east 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of late night showers over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 1 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways over southeast Missouri
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:44 PM
Moonset: 8:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, December 10, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 12 AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 6:38 PM
Moonset: 9:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Morning clouds. Some clearing through the day.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:37 PM
Moonset: 10:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, December 12, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
Moonrise: 8:36 PM
Moonset: 10:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of intense storms. A bit early to know about that.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of intense storms. A bit early to know about that.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather radars
Moonrise: 9:36 PM
Moonset: 11:11AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through December 15th: I am watching next Monday night into Tuesday night. Severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out, but it is still a bit early for certainties. Monitor updates.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather continues.
- Locally heavy rain possible.
- Peak rain chances will be tonight into Thursday night.
- Mostly dry Friday. A few scattered showers possible Saturday and Sunday.
- Monitoring a large system early next week.
Weather advice:
Monitor the forecast over the coming weeks. An active weather pattern is developing.
Current Weather Discussion
Our unsettled weather pattern continues.
Portions of the region received locally heavy rain yesterday and last night. Many areas were damp, but did not pick up much in the way of measurable rainfall.
Here are some of the radar estimated rain totals.
Double click images to enlarge them.
When someone asks me how much rain will my county receive!
This is Marshall County over the past 24 hours. Almost none in some locations. Over an inch in others. It is always tricky forecasting rain totals from events like this. Got to love our regions weather.
Conditions will vary again today. See the local radars.
Rain chances will be mainly confined to the Missouri Bootheel and then east northeast along the Kentucky/Tennessee border and then southward.
North of there, small rain chances. Widespread clouds area-wide.
This has been a multi-day rain event, for some. Not all.
The good news, for those waiting on the rain, is that it will arrive tonight into tomorrow. Widespread rain is anticipated. Some embedded thunderstorms.
No severe weather concerns.
Rain totals between now and Friday morning will likely range from 0.70″ to 1.40″. Locally higher totals will be possible.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast. This takes us through Friday morning.
Double click the image to enlarge it.
Yesterday, dew points rose into the extreme levels for December.
The dew point in Murray, Kentucky, at 5 pm was 68 degrees. This is extremely rare in December. There were some 70 dew points in northwest Tennessee.
These type of dew points are more common during the summer months. Not winter.
December 10, 2021 produced dew points in the middle 60s. A few upper 60s were reported. Again, this is highly unusual.
Thankfully, we did not have a more organized storm system to tap into all of that potential energy. We dodged a bullet yesterday.
Tuesday’s dew point reading in Murray, Kentucky. 5 PM.
This graphic shows you how unusual it is to have these type of dew points in December.
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A cold front will push across the region Thursday night and Friday morning.
This will bring an end to our rain chances. At least temporarily.
Friday will deliver partly sunny sky conditions. Expect it to be dry.
I have increased Saturday’s rain chances. It now appears showers will likely push across the region. A few scattered showers will remain Saturday evening, the rain will end west to east as we move through Saturday night.
I have Sunday dry. Sunday night will likely be dry across the bulk of the region. Perhaps an isolated light shower over southeast Missouri.
A stronger storm system will push into the region Monday and Tuesday of next week.
The system continues to come into better focus. Highest rain chances will likely be Tuesday and Tuesday night.
We are going to have to monitor this system. Some of the data shows heavy rain and thunderstorms. Since this is in the long range, confidence remains low when it comes to the details.
The players for a severe weather event are certainly on the table. Whether that remains to our south southwest or includes our region will need to be monitored.
I will keep an eye on it and update daily.
I will be speaking in Cayce, Kentucky this coming Saturday.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 7th through December 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 14th through December 20th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers December 20th through January 2nd
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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