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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday – Perhaps some morning patchy fog. Partly to mostly sunny. Clouds will linger along the KY/TN border as a thunderstorm complex pulls away to the south. Also the Bootheel area of southeast Missouri. But, sun should break through there later, as well. Mild and nice conditions for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: East/southeast at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay. Very small chance for a storm.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No impacts expected.
Friday night – Patchy fog possible. Mostly clear and present. Nice camping weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: North and northeast at 5 mph. Calm winds at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% in the evening
What impact is expected? Should not be any impacts from the weather
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Patchy cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Warm. Summer weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild. Not too bad for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Increasing clouds with a 30%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and a bit more humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s to lower 90’s. Questions on high temperatures. If thunderstorms form or there is a cloud shield from any storms on Saturday night to our north then temperatures would be impacted. Keep this in mind.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Sunday night – Some clouds. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest late. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Monday night – Some clouds. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph during the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case there are a few storms.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. No major concerns for Friday or Saturday. A couple of storms possible on Friday
2. Another system Sunday night?
Perhaps some patchy fog the next couple of nights. A lot of moisture in the ground over parts of the area.
Friday will be calm and mild. Just a small chance for a popup thunderstorm. Friday night will be a nice camping night!
Saturday and Saturday night should bring calm weather. Warm. But, nothing unusual.
I am watching a weak system around Sunday night (maybe Sunday afternoon). This system will move in from the north and northwest. It could produce a few thunderstorms. Right now confidence is low to medium on this part of the forecast.
Another cold front early next week should usher in nicer air for Tuesday into perhaps Thursday. We will have to see beyond that.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. How is the weekend shaping up?
At this time, it appears that Saturday should be dry. Highs in the 80’s. Sunday, models are attempting to push another wave through the region. If this happens then additional thunderstorms could occur. Again, heavy rain would be possible. My confidence on the Sunday forecast is low. Hopefully I can gain some confidence from the data over the coming day or two.
A cold front pushes through the region on Sunday night and Monday. At this time, I believe cooler and drier air will arrive by early next week. This is 36 to 48 hours later than expected in my forecast three or four days ago. The front is slower in moving into the area.
Data indicates that much of next week might actually end up dry. Again, confidence is low. This is a fast moving pattern. It doesn’t take much energy to pop thunderstorms. Ripples or waves of low pressure moving in from the northwest. Shortwaves. So, whether much of next week ends up dry or not will depend on this shortwaves pushing through the northwest flow.
Data also indicates normal to below normal temperatures for much of next week. Let’s see if we can pull that off.
My September forecast is for drier than normal with above normal temperatures.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Friday into Sunday should be dry. Perhaps another wave of precipitation around Sunday afternoon into Monday. Scattered 0.25″-0.50″ of rain. Locally heavier if storms occur.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. A couple of storms possible on Friday
Friday: A small thunderstorm chance. Should be dry over most of the area.
Saturday and Sunday: RIGHT NOW it appears thunderstorm chances will be nil on Saturday and small on Sunday. But, data is mixed on this subject (especially for Sunday afternoon and night). Monitor updates.
Monday: A chance for a few thunderstorms
Tuesday: Not expecting storms
Wednesday: Not expecting storms
Thursday: Not expecting storms
No major concerns.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
