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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. A 60%-70% chance for thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible in some areas. Very low confidence on tonight’s forecast. The heaviest storms could remain in northern Arkansas and Tennessee. Then another band over parts of southern IL and northwest KY.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. Winds will vary a bit in direction because of the stationary front over the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium/high on there being heavy rain in the region. Confidence is low when it comes to the placement of that heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Could be some issues with rain. Monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Thursday – A few morning showers and thunderstorms possible. Mild. Below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the 70’s and 80’s
Winds: Southwest at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming more west/northwest during the afternoon hours at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Risk is very small.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. A small chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. With the front nearby winds will shift around a bit. South winds south of the front and northerly winds north of the front.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should not have any problems
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm in the area.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: Southeast at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay. A couple of storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Friday night – A slight chance for an evening thunderstorm. Otherwise, partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: North and northeast at 5 mph. Calm winds at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps a few evening storms. Most areas should be okay.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Warm. Summery.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s to around 90 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild. Not too bad for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Increasing clouds with a 30%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and a bit more humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s to lower 90’s. Questions on high temperatures. If thunderstorms form or there is a cloud shield from any storms on Saturday night to our north then temperatures would be impacted. Keep this in mind.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Sunday night – Some clouds. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Heavy rain possible tonight into Thursday morning. Monitor radars and warnings
2. Perhaps mostly dry Thursday night and Friday. Low chances for storms.
Heavy rain fell over parts of the region on Tuesday into Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ were common across much of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee. Parts of southern Illinois also picked up some heavy rain, although some areas missed out completely.
We have several batches of rain and storms that are forecast to move through the region tonight into Thursday morning. Locally heavy rain continues to be a concern.
Instability has been kept down today because of clouds and rainfall. This could help us tonight with keeping thunderstorms from reaching maximum potential. Hopefully this will reduce rainfall totals.
With that said, any storms that train over the same areas could produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. VERY low confidence on Wednesday nights forecast. The heaviest rain may remain over northern Arkansas into western Tennessee. Then scattered heavy rain over southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
Some spots picked up 3-5″ of rain on Wednesday morning over western Kentucky. In particular the Trigg, Lyon, and Christian County area. Extreme southwest Kentucky reported 1-3″ of rain on Wednesday morning. Parts of southeast Missouri had pockets of greater than 3″. This was within the forecast numbers.
Thursday into Friday will provide the opportunity for a few scattered storms. But, widespread precipitation is not anticipated.
Friday night into Saturday night is forecast to be dry and warm. At one time I was forecasting a cold front to cool us down by Friday into the weekend. That front has been pushed back about 48 hours. Now it appears it won’t arrive until early next week. Then we should cool down a bit as high pressure builds in from the north.
Current watches and warnings (click map for details)
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. How is the weekend shaping up?
At this time, it appears that Saturday should be dry. Highs in the 80’s. Sunday, models are attempting to push another wave through the region. If this happens then additional thunderstorms could occur. Again, heavy rain would be possible. My confidence on the Sunday forecast is low. Hopefully I can gain some confidence from the data over the coming day or two.
A cold front pushes through the region on Sunday night and Monday. At this time, I believe cooler and drier air will arrive by early next week. This is 36 to 48 hours later than expected in my forecast three or four days ago. The front is slower in moving into the area.
Data indicates that much of next week might actually end up dry. Again, confidence is low. This is a fast moving pattern. It doesn’t take much energy to pop thunderstorms. Ripples or waves of low pressure moving in from the northwest. Shortwaves. So, whether much of next week ends up dry or not will depend on this shortwaves pushing through the northwest flow.
Data also indicates normal to below normal temperatures for much of next week. Let’s see if we can pull that off.
My September forecast is for drier than normal with above normal temperatures.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals will continue to vary greatly over the region. Thunderstorms can drop 1-3″ of rain per hour. Some places may not pick up much rain tonight into Thursday. Other areas could experience flash flooding.
It is amazing how long we have been in this pattern. It started in June. It lasted through July. And now…August.
Slow moving thunderstorms are my main concern for rainfall totals.
I will be glad when this pattern is over and we can return to a normal rainfall map that shows you what to expect. Just not happening, yet.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO. Thunderstorms are possible over the coming days. Some storms could be on the heavy side. I can’t completely rule out a severe thunderstorm, but the risk appears very low. Flash flooding is a possibility in a few locations.
Wednesday night: Thunderstorms are possible.
Thursday: Thunderstorms are possible.
Friday: We may still have to deal with thunderstorm chances on Friday, as well.
Saturday and Sunday: RIGHT NOW it appears thunderstorm chances will be nil on Saturday and small on Sunday. But, data is mixed on this subject (especially for Sunday). Monitor updates.
The main concern for Wednesday night into Thursday will be pockets of heavy rain. Flash flooding will be possible in some of my forecast counties. Rainfall totals could exceed 2-4″. It is impossible for a forecaster to pinpoint where that will occur (in a pattern like this). All it takes is a couple of thunderstorms to train over the same areas. Monitor radars and warnings.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
