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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today. A small chance Saturday into Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low risk. There is a small risk today from the Missouri Bootheel into and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line. The concern will be a thunderstorm producing gusty winds.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some areas may miss out on the rain. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 80° to 82° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms may produce gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy before midnight. Clearing overnight. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms (mainly eastern counties). Ending west to east early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 45° to 48° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:02 PM
Moonset: 9:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, October 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. High fire danger. Use care if you must burn fields.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 68° / South IL 65° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:21 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy dense fog. Patchy frost.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 34° to 38° / West KY 38° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the: Light northwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 PM
Moonset: 10:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, October 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48° / West KY 48° to 50° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:20 PM
Moonset: 11:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Chances are higher the further south you travel.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 78° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 78° to 80° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No,, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 48° / South IL 45° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No,, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:09 PM
Moonset: 12:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly the first half of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No,, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Clearing and colder. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 36° to 38° / West KY 35° to 38° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 1:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, October 17, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:16 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. A frost and or freeze will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 34°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and or freeze will be possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 2:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Tuesday, October 18, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 52° to 55° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:14 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. A frost and or freeze will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 32° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 34°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and or freeze will be possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 3:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
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Today through October 22nd: There is a small chance of a severe thunderstorm today across the Missouri Bootheel and then east along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line. The concern will be gusty winds. Small hail is also possible with the most intense thunderstorms. Areas north of there have an even smaller risk.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Finally. Some showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.
- Mild days. Cool nights.
- Fire conditions. Use care.
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Weather advice:
Avoid burning brush and leaves. Fire conditions are becoming an issue in many areas.
Thunderstorms are possible today. A few storms will produce lightning and gusty winds.
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Current Weather Discussion
Finally! After more than thirty days (for most of the region), we have a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. Even with a decent shot, some areas may still miss out. Keep that in mind. That has been the going forecast.
Hope for the best. We need this rain.
Rain totals aren’t going to be a drought buster. Expect none for some and then up to 0.40″ in spots. Thunderstorms can always produce locally higher totals.
A cold front is approaching the region from the west. This front will move west to east across the region today.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is slowly spreading northward ahead of the frontal boundary.
You can see that on these dew points maps. Dew point is a measure of moisture. A necessary ingredient for showers and thunderstorms.
The current map
Later today
Finally, post frontal (notice how the moisture rapidly falls behind the front). A cold front acts like a plow.
All of this sets the stage for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Sadly, some will likely not receive much in the way of measurable rainfall. But, we take what we can get.
Here was the 6 AM radar. You can see precipitation starting to develop. Some of this was virga. Rain that was not reaching the ground.
That solid band to our west is the real deal. The southeast Missouri precipitation is also likely reaching the ground. The precipitation over our eastern counties is likely virga.
The front will quickly push off to the east this evening and tonight. Clouds will clear and cooler air will filter into the region.
If the winds subside, then some patchy fog will develop, as well. That would be late tonight. That is especially true of areas that receive a bit of rainfall.
Thursday and Friday will be dry and cool/mild. Nothing extreme. Winds will range from 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph both days.
Humidity levels will be low both days. That will combine with gusty winds to produce a higher than usual fire danger. If you must burn fields or brush, then please use extreme care. Your local fire department will thank you!
Check out these relative humidity levels tomorrow and Friday. Below 20%. That is bad for field fires. Again, use care.
Thursday relative humidity levels. Double click on images to enlarge them.
Friday relative humidity levels. Double click on images to enlarge them.
A weak system will approach from the south Saturday and Sunday. A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible during this time-frame.
Chances will spread south to north with this system. Low-end chances.
The chances will be low near Mt Vernon, Illinois, and highest from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Even there, chances are on the low-end.
I do expect a few echoes on radar. Don’t expect much. Hopefully, some of you receive some rain.
Otherwise, both Saturday and Sunday will deliver partly sunny sky conditions. Mild temperatures. Breezy, at times. Again, use care if you are burning fields or leaves.
Guidance is mixed on what happens Monday and Tuesday.
I am forecasting colder air to filter into the region from the north. This colder air should bring a chance of frost and/or a freeze Monday night/Tuesday morning. I will keep an eye on Tuesday night, as well. Either way, it will turn colder.
Some of you have already had a frost/freeze. Other locations have not. You will want to protect your sensitive plants.
Here is the GFS for next Tuesday. That indicates well below normal temperatures. The blue and pinkish colors.
Could some locations drop into the 20s? Possible.
The GFS low temperature forecast. GFS is a model. This is probably too warm. I think it will be colder.
Tuesday morning
Wednesday morning
Updated Winter Forecast
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers October 12th through October 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers October 19th through October 25th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers October 21st through November 3rd
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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