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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Marginal risk. There is a marginal (low-end) risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary concern appears to be a few reports of strong wind gusts. Monitor updates moving forward.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of scattered showers (mainly over Missouri and Illinois). Warm. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over Missouri and Illinois
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 78° to 80° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 6:24 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A small chance of showers towards Ste Genevieve and Mt Vernon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most
Timing of the rain: After 1 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:31 PM
Moonset: 8:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some areas may miss out on the rain. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 80° to 82° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms may produce gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly eastern counties). Ending west to east early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 45° to 48° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:02 PM
Moonset: 9:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, October 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. High fire danger. Use care if you must burn fields.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:21 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy dense fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 34° to 38° / West KY 38° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the: Light northwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 PM
Moonset: 10:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, October 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 40° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:20 PM
Moonset: 11:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the AM. Some PM clouds. A slight chance of a late afternoon shower. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if anything at all
Timing of the rain: After 3 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 7 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:09 PM
Moonset: 12:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Clearing and colder. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 36° to 38° / West KY 35° to 38° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 1:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, October 17, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:10 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 32° to 35° / West KY 32° to 35° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 2:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through October 15th: There is a chance of a severe thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. This is a low-end severe weather threat.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
- Mild days. Cool nights.
- Fire conditions. Use care.
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Weather advice:
Avoid burning brush and leaves. Fire conditions are becoming an issue in many areas.
Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. A few storms will produce lightning and gusty winds.
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Current Weather Discussion
Well, Monday was another dry sunny day. It was nice. Great autumn weather. Other than the drought.
We all know that we need rain. Thankfully, we will have some in the coming days. Most will. Some may miss out. Again.
A warm front is currently moving through the area. This front is producing a few showers over our northwest counties. Most of the region is dry.
You can see that on the 5 AM radar snapshot. Those showers are moving northeast.
The bulk of the region will remain dry today. Same as recent weeks.
The good news is that a stronger cold front is moving towards the region.
That front will enter the region tomorrow. It will bring showers and thunderstorms with it.
There should be just enough instability for a few of the thunderstorms to produce strong and gusty winds, small hail, heavy rain, and lightning.
There is a level one severe weather risk. The lowest level. A marginal risk. I don’t see this as being a big deal. There just is not enough in the way of severe weather ingredients to be overly concerned.
Here is that graphic from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The olive green color is the marginal risk zone. The light green is where general storms are possible (sub-severe).
A severe thunderstorm is one that produce 60 mph wind gusts, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Again, the risk is mainly for strong wind gusts. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm warning.
This does not appear to be a tornado risk event. That is the good news.
It is that time of the year. Our second season for severe thunderstorms. We normally see an uptick in severe weather during October and November.
Of course, severe weather can happen year-round. We all know this.
The precipitation chances will come to an end early Wednesday evening. The front will push off to the east.
Thursday will be breezy and cooler. The same for Friday.
Low humidity levels Thursday will mean a higher than average fire danger risk. Try and avoid burning fields and leaves.
A weak disturbance could bring a few showers to the region Saturday and Sunday. For now, I have low-end shower chances. Nothing major.
Rain totals would be on the light side. Meaning, 0.00 to 0.20″.
I don’t see a solid break in this dry pattern. There are signals on the long range models are cold fronts attempting to work their way into the region. The problem is that the Gulf of Mexico seems to be shut down for business.
That means a lack of richer gulf moisture. We need those higher dew points if we want to start seeing heavier rain events.
Until the pattern shifts, we are stuck in this mostly dry pattern with mild days and cool nights. Some cold fronts, but nothing significant.
I will keep watching for pattern changes. We just aren’t quite there, yet. It will come. It always does.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
And the next two weeks (double click on images to enlarge them)
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers October 11th through October 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers October 19th through October 25th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers October 25th through November 7th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows the top analogs. Let me pull this graphic out from the above one.
Analogs are years that are similar to the current one. We use analogs to determine how this year might act compared to recent years with similar conditions.
Typically, in our region, snowfall totals are lower during La Nina winters.
The bottom three USA graphics indicate that possibility. Last year delivered below average snowfall totals (for most of our area).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows you the temperature outlooks from a variety of super models.
The first four USA graphics are temperature outlooks. All four are warmer than average for our local area. Orange and yellow.
The second four USA graphics are precipitation outlooks. Typical for a La Nina winter, we are seeing the risk of average to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.
Only one model shows below average precipitation. On the precipitation graphics (the bottom four USA images) green is above. Yellow is below.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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Previous outlook graphics
Preliminary winter outlook. Temperatures and precipitation.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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