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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low-risk. There is a low end risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary concern appears to be a few reports of strong wind gusts. I will monitor this. Monitor updates moving forward. If upper level winds and moisture return were a tad higher, then the risk would be more substantial.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Sunday, October 09, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Nice.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 70° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 6:27 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:37 PM
Moonset: 6:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Monday, October 10, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° / South IL 78° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 78° to 80° / West KY 78° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 6:25 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 7:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Tuesday, October 11, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered showers (mainly over Missouri and Illinois). Warm. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 5% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over Missouri and Illinois
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 6:24 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A small chance of showers towards Ste Genevieve and Mt Vernon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most
Timing of the rain: After 1 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 55° to 58° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:31 PM
Moonset: 8:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly during the afternoon. I will need to monitor the timing of the cold front. Data varies by about 6 to 12 hours. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time, but more likely during the afternoon and evening.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 80° to 82° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:23 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 48° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:02 PM
Moonset: 9:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, October 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of morning showers. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: During the morning hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:21 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy dense fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° / SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 34° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Light northwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 PM
Moonset: 10:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, October 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:20 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 36° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 38° / South IL 36° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 36° to 38° / West KY 36° to 38° / NW TN 36° to 38°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:20 PM
Moonset: 11:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 72° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:18 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:09 PM
Moonset: 12:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:17 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 33° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 1:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
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Today through October 15th: I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will pass through the region. This front will deliver a band of showers and thunderstorms.
A few of the storms could produce strong and gusty winds. There is a low-end risk of a severe thunderstorm with winds gusting above 60 mph. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Dry. Fire conditions are enhanced.
- Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday morning (mainly Wednesday afternoon/night).
- A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday PM.
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Weather advice:
Avoid burning brush and leaves. Fire conditions are becoming an issue in many areas.
Monitor updates concerning Wednesday’s thunderstorm chances.
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Current Weather Discussion
It has been a chilly weekend. At least at night and during the morning hours.
Saturday morning and this morning delivered widespread 30s to the region. A few locations even dipped below 32 degrees.
Frost was reported in many counties.
We will have quite a bit of sunshine the rest of today. Cool temperatures, but at least the sun will make things feel a bit warmer.
Dry conditions are anticipated today into Monday night.
Gusty winds will be an issue over the coming days. That will combine with low humidity levels and produce an enhanced fire danger.
Once again, if you must burn fields or brush, then use care. There have been numerous fires over the past few weeks. The fire departments have been quite busy. Let’s not add to the problem.
A few showers will be possible Tuesday. This will occur as an upper level system swings through the region. It will combine with some Pacific moisture. The end result will be a few showers over primarily Missouri and Illinois. I did include shower chances in those areas. I left the rest of the region dry. For now, at least.
Either way, it is a light rain event. Rain totals of a trace to 0.15″.
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Wednesday into the weekend.
The GREAT news is that we have a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms this week. FINALLY. For many locations, it has been a month since more than 0.10″ of rain has fallen. A few locations shorter than that.
It is dry dry dry. Severe drought conditions continue to spread.
So, this is great news.
A cold front will push across the region Wednesday into Thursday.
Some moisture will return ahead of this front on southerly winds. Dew points will finally begin to rise. This will combine with some upper level energy to produce a band of showers and thunderstorms.
The peak chances will be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Model guidance differs on the exact timing of the frontal passage by six to eight hours. Thus, monitor updates if you have plans Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of the cold front. That line will then sweep west to east across the region.
There is just enough wind shear and moisture to add thunderstorms to the forecast. A couple of the storms could be intense with locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.
Remember, severe thunderstorms need a few ingredients.
Wind shear is one of them. Wind shear is when winds increase with height. Wind shear is wind turns directions with height. During the autumn and winter months, wind shear tends to be high. Jet stream is zipping along.
Moisture is another ingredient. Higher dew points. Typically, during the autumn and winter months you look for dew points of 58 degrees or higher. Anything in the 60s is considered considerable.
I am forecasting dew points to rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s along the front. The warm sector isn’t large. Fairly thin.
CAPE is another ingredient. CAPE is basically energy that thunderstorms tap into. Typically, during the autumn and winter months, you have low CAPE.
CAPE appears minimal with this event. Perhaps 200 joules or less.
Lift is another one. The cold front will provide lift.
This graphic shows you lift. Quite a bit of lift along the front.
If wind shear and moisture were just a tad higher, then I would be more concerned about severe weather. As it stands, the conditions are marginal for severe thunderstorm development.
As always, monitor updates. A few days ago it appeared that it would be a stretch to even get lightning out of this system. So, there has been an increase in the intensity since a few days ago.
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** UPDATED GRAPHICS **
Winter outlook graphics.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Temperature
Precipitation
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers October 7th through October 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers October 15th through October 21st
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers October 21st through November 3rd
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows the top analogs. Let me pull this graphic out from the above one.
Analogs are years that are similar to the current one. We use analogs to determine how this year might act compared to recent years with similar conditions.
Typically, in our region, snowfall totals are lower during La Nina winters.
The bottom three USA graphics indicate that possibility. Last year delivered below average snowfall totals (for most of our area).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows you the temperature outlooks from a variety of super models.
The first four USA graphics are temperature outlooks. All four are warmer than average for our local area. Orange and yellow.
The second four USA graphics are precipitation outlooks. Typical for a La Nina winter, we are seeing the risk of average to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.
Only one model shows below average precipitation. On the precipitation graphics (the bottom four USA images) green is above. Yellow is below.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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Previous outlook graphics
Preliminary winter outlook. Temperatures and precipitation.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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