Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Friday, September 23, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Friday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds. A  chance of a shower over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (north)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°  /  SE MO 68° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Northeast to east 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways (north)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset:  6:51 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.  A chance of a late night shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain:  Amy given point of time, but more likely late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58°  /  SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° /  South IL 52° to 55°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 52° to 55°  /  West KY 52° to 55° /  NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the:  East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:16 AM
Moonset:  6:10 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Saturday, September 24, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Some clouds.  A chance of mainly morning showers.  A slight chance of a thunderstorm.  Thunderstorms possible in the afternoon over southern Missouri se into NW Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Timing of the rain:  Mainly before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86°  /  SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° /  South IL 82° to 85°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 82° to 85°  /  West KY 82° to 84° /  NW TN 84° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning risk.  Hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset:  6:49 AM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62°  /  SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 66° /  South IL 58° to 60°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 60°  /  West KY 58° to 62° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars (see bottom of the page)
Moonrise: 5:17 AM
Moonset:  6:35 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday, September 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium  confidence
Sunday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.   A chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°  /  SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° /  South IL 80° to 82°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 80° to 82°  /  West KY 82° to 84° /  NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest becoming northwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset:  6:48 AM
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Sunday  night Forecast:  Partly cloudy early.  Clearing overnight.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°  /  SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° /  South IL 48° to 52°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 48° to 52°  /  West KY 50° to 52° /  NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset:  7:00 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Monday, September 26, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 72° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset:  6:46 AM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°  /  SE MO 45° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 44° to 48°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48°  /  West KY 46° to 48° /  NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
Moonset:  7:24 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Tuesday, September 27, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Tuesday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° /  South IL 74° to 78°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 78°  /  West KY 74° to 78° /  NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset:  6:45 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°  /  SE MO 45° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 44° to 48°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48°  /  West KY 46° to 48° /  NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset:  7:51 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Wednesday, September 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° /  South IL 74° to 78°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 78°  /  West KY 74° to 78° /  NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset:  6:45 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°  /  SE MO 45° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 44° to 48°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48°  /  West KY 46° to 48° /  NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:36 AM
Moonset:  8:21 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click the tab below.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through October 4th:   Organized/widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Isolated secere storms Saturday PM over southern Missouri.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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None

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Current Weather Discussion

We are waking up to some clouds over portions of the region.  Cool temperatures.

You can see the early morning temperatures on this graphic.  Some 40s!  The Weather Observatory dipped down to 48 degrees.

I had to add a few more clouds to the forecast today.  Clouds are being stubborn.  Clouds will be thicker over the northern half of the region vs the south.  Thinner clouds as you travel southward.

A weak wave is moving across our northern counties.  This could bring a shower or two, as well.  The rest of the region should remain dry today.

The graphic above shows some of those showers well to our north northwest.

Local radars are picking up on some scattered light showers, as well.

The main concern will be the northern couple of counties in my forecast area.  More towards Perry County, Missouri eastward towards Evansville, Indiana.  From there northward there will be some widely scattered showers.  No severe risk.

We will have to deal with intervals of clouds into Sunday.  Decent temperatures.

Several weak disturbances and fronts will find themselves placed across our region.

That equals widely scattered showers tonight into mainly Saturday morning.  Another chance Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

We need rain.  Drought conditions continue to worsen, as you are aware.

Here are the latest drought monitor maps.

Double click the graphics to see them better.

Be careful if you must burn leaves, brush, and debris.  Several counties have burn bans in effect.

Dry conditions are anticipated Sunday night into much of next week.  Cooler temperatures Sunday night into next week, as well.  Autumn air.

Tropical depression nine has formed in the Caribbean.

This system will move west northwest over the coming days.  It will eventually turn north northeast.

Many of you are asking me about a possible tropical system towards the end of the month.  Many of you will be on fall break and on vacation.

The National Hurricane Center is now tracking the system.  It has strengthened into a tropical depression.  The next level up would be a tropical storm and then a hurricane.  Each is based on wind speed.

Landfall in Florida is possible as early as next Wednesday and Thursday.

Gusty winds could arrive as early as Tuesday night across portions of the state.

This is the potential path of the eye of the storm. Remember, a hurricane is not a point on the map.

Rain bands spread outward hundreds of miles. Heavy rain, gusty wind, and tornadoes can occur well away from the eye.

This map shows you the current forecast path. The thick black line is where the eye could pass.

The center is simply the center point of the cone.

Don’t focus on just the line.  Focus on the cone.  The cone is where the center could pass.  Then, you still have to deal with heavy rain, wind, and tornadoes away from the center.

This system is still developing and adjustments are possible.

It is forecast to become a hurricane. We will have to see if it hits Cuba and weakens or if it misses the island.

Follow the National Hurricane Center’s advisories here https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The track, thus far.  This is where it has already tracked.

Many guidance packages favor a more easterly track.

These are model ensemble tracks for the center.  There is a bit of a spread.  Same with the cone mentioned above.  There is a spread.

I will continue to watch trends and update the graphics.

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Join us for Surviving the Storm. Thursday, September 29 at 6:00 PM at the Hickman County Extension Office.

We will review the December 2021 Tornado, lessons learned, and disaster preparedness tips.

Justin Jackson, Hickman Office of Emergency Management Director, will overview the Hickman County tornado damage and response.

Door Prizes (including five Midland 120 NOAA Weather Radios) and Light Refreshments are provided.

This free event is sponsored by the Hickman County Office of Emergency Management and Hickman County Extension.

https://www.facebook.com/events/962061578018048/?ref=newsfeed

As a reminder, we typically see an uptick in tornado activity from mid-October through the end of November.  Some of our deadlier outbreaks have occurred during the autumn and winter months.

Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app downloaded on your phone.  Make sure your subscription is up to date.

You can check your subscription by going to www.weathertalk.com 

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Early AM Energy/Agriculture Report. 

This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am

The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.

Double click this image to make it larger.

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers September 23rd  through September 29th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers September 30th  through October 6th

Click on the image to expand it

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  78 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″

This outlook covers October 7th through October 20th

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Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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