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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Saturday night into Sunday night. Focused on late Saturday night and Sunday during the day. Overall, chances are fairly low for lightning at your location.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Thursday, September 22, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of an isolated showers. Cooler air will filter into the region, as the day wears on. Gusty wind with the front, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:52 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 45° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 50° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph during the evening.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:13 AM
Moonset: 5:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday, September 23, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Nice.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 68° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Northeast to east 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 6:51 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Cool. A slight chance of a late night shower. Isolated.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:16 AM
Moonset: 6:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday, September 24, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a morning shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 11 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:49 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 66° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 60° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars (see bottom of the page)
Moonrise: 5:17 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, September 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 80° to 82° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming northwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:48 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 8 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 48° to 52° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Perhaps an isolated wet roadway.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset: 7:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Monday, September 26, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:46 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 45° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
Moonset: 7:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday, September 27, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 6:45 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 45° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 7:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday, September 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 6:45 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 45° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:36 AM
Moonset: 8:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through October 4th: Organized/widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Let’s all welcome our cooler air. Finally.
- Record high of 101 degrees in Paducah, Kentucky yesterday. Latest 100 degree reading dating back to the 1930s.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the weekend. Another cold front. Cooler behind that front.
- Hickman County severe weather presentation. September 29th. Come visit with me.
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Weather advice:
None
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Current Weather Discussion
WELCOME TO AUTUMN 2022! WE MADE IT.
It was a long summer. Hot and dry for many areas. Mixed in with the dry/drought conditions were sporadic rain events that produced extremely heavy downpours. Much of that ran off into ditches and creeks. Some soaked in.
It was an odd summer of extremes. That is now in the rear view mirror.
Wednesday was certainly a hot one. We promised you a heat wave. The weather delivered.
Here are some Tweets from the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service Office.
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Thankfully, the heat is over. For now, at least. Was that our last 90 degree+ reading? I can’t promise you that. Especially with the dry ground conditions. That makes it heat up faster.
The cold front is NOW moving across the region. As I type this! Cooler air is filtering into the region from the northwest.
The good news is that autumn is here. The lengthy heat waves are likely over. We will likely still have some warm days.
I have concerns about the October and November fire season. Field and brush fires will be a concern. Use care over the coming weeks.
Winds typically pick up during the autumn months. Gusty winds and low humidity levels combined with dry vegetation usually doesn’t end well.
There are already burn bans being implemented.
There are still a few showers in the region this morning. Mainly across southeast Missouri. An isolated shower can’t be ruled out today. The cold front and 850 mb front is still pushing through the region. Nothing major.
Dry conditions, for the most part, tonight into Saturday. There is a small chance of a shower tonight and early tomorrow morning, but it is barely worth mentioning.
A cold front will approach the region Saturday night into Sunday night. This front will bring increasing clouds and scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, I have lowered rain chances. We sure need rain.
The last rain of any significant, at The Weather Observatory, was in early September. It is dry.
Don’t expect much Saturday night into Sunday evening.
Dry conditions are likely Sunday night into next Wednesday.
It will warm up slightly Saturday and then cool back down Sunday into next week.
Autumn weather.
Many of you are asking me about a possible tropical system towards the end of the month. Many of you will be on fall break and on vacation.
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking the system. They give it a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane.
This is certainly concerning. The Gulf of Mexico waters are hot. Above average temperatures. Lot of fuel IF this thing can get going.
It is the southern X on this NHC map.
Unfortunately, guidance continues to show a possible tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Keep in mind, models do not handle tropical systems all that well. Especially true days in advance. They do better in the day one to three range.
For now, it is something that I continue to monitor.
You can see that here on the GFS American model. September 30th onward.
The latest data shows it further west than previous runs.
Take this with a grain of salt. Models just don’t do well with tropical systems days in advance.
Yesterday, the models took the system into Florida! Wild swings in the data.
We sure could use the rain. It would be a blessing for us, but bad news for others.
Let’s keep watching trends.
Many guidance packages favor a more easterly track.
The EC ensemble data shows a tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
All of those lows represent one run of the EC ensembles. There are dozens of EC ensemble members.
An ensemble is when the run the model over and over again with different beginning variables. The thought is that the more that agree, the higher the confidence in the overall forecast.
When the L’s are tightly clustered then confidence in the forecast is high.
You can see that the lows are scattered from southern Florida all the way to Mexico. Quite the spread.
The general idea for a tropical event is there.
The ensembles keep it further east than the operational GFS model.
I will continue to watch trends and update the graphics. Long way to go for this one.
Join us for Surviving the Storm. Thursday, September 29 at 6:00 PM at the Hickman County Extension Office.
We will review the December 2021 Tornado, lessons learned, and disaster preparedness tips.
Justin Jackson, Hickman Office of Emergency Management Director, will overview the Hickman County tornado damage and response.
Door Prizes (including five Midland 120 NOAA Weather Radios) and Light Refreshments are provided.
This free event is sponsored by the Hickman County Office of Emergency Management and Hickman County Extension.
https://www.facebook.com/events/962061578018048/?ref=newsfeed
As a reminder, we typically see an uptick in tornado activity from mid-October through the end of November. Some of our deadlier outbreaks have occurred during the autumn and winter months.
Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app downloaded on your phone. Make sure your subscription is up to date.
You can check your subscription by going to www.weathertalk.com
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Early AM Energy/Agriculture Report.
This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am
The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.
Double click this image to make it larger.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers September 22nd through September 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers September 29th through October 5th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers October 4th through October 17th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows the top analogs. Let me pull this graphic out from the above one.
Analogs are years that are similar to the current one. We use analogs to determine how this year might act compared to recent years with similar conditions.
Typically, in our region, snowfall totals are lower during La Nina winters.
The bottom three USA graphics indicate that possibility. Last year delivered below average snowfall totals (for most of our area).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows you the temperature outlooks from a variety of super models.
The first four USA graphics are temperature outlooks. All four are warmer than average for our local area. Orange and yellow.
The second four USA graphics are precipitation outlooks. Typical for a La Nina winter, we are seeing the risk of average to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.
Only one model shows below average precipitation. On the precipitation graphics (the bottom four USA images) green is above. Yellow is below.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Preliminary winter outlook. Temperatures and precipitation.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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