Wednesday, September 7, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates. I can’t rule out an intense storm or two with downburst winds. Widespread severe weather is unlikely.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Slow moving storms can always cause brief issues in poor drainage areas. I will be monitoring Saturday and Sunday.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

Wednesday, September 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Some patchy morning fog. Becoming mostly sunny. A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / South IL 82° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? AM fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:14 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:02 PM
Moonset: 2:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday, September 8, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:12 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:41 PM
Moonset: 4:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Friday, September 9, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Patchy AM fog. Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances during the afternoon. The best chance of precipitation (which isn’t all that great to begin with) will be across Kentucky and Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Primarily after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Light east northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in morning fog. Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 7:11 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:14 PM
Moonset: 5:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Saturday, September 10, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Higher chances across the eastern and southeastern two-thirds of the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 7:10 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:43 PM
Moonset: 6:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Sunday, September 11, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:08 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:10 PM
Moonset: 7:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Monday, September 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Nicer. Most likely dry, but I will need to monitor the departure time of the Sunday cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:07 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Pleasant. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? .
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:37 PM
Moonset: 8:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click the tab below.

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Today through September 12th: Organized/widespread severe weather is unlikely. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.

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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Mild weather.
2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Weather advice:

Well, we have a couple of very nice days ahead of us. Today will be nice. Tomorrow will be nice.

Great temperatures. Nice humidity levels. Low dew points. What else could you ask for! Yes, well…some rain. Some of you still need more rain. I keep trying!

We have some weather changes on the way.

An upper level low will approach our region from the south. This will begin Friday and Friday night.

This upper level low will slowly pivot north and east. This will bring increasing clouds by Friday and Friday night. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, as well.

Precipitation chances will likely be confined to Kentucky and Tennessee Friday afternoon and evening. Perhaps a few into Missouri and Illinois Friday night.

Widespread rain is unlikely Friday. Scattered showers and storms.

A cold front will approach the region Saturday and Sunday. This will push into the region from the west.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage and intensity Saturday and Sunday. Locally heavy rain is likely with high PWAT values.

PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.

You can see those high digits on this map.

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms could produce one to three inches of rain per hour. This could cause local water issues in poor drainage areas and commonly flooded areas. That would primarily be Saturday and Sunday.

At this time, severe weather appears unlikely. One can’t ever rule out isolated downburst winds.

The good news is that once that system departs (Sunday night/Monday morning) cooler air will filter into the region. Cooler and drier air. Lower dew points.

Dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside.

You can see the dew point animation below. Notice the lower digits pushing into the region Sunday night and Monday?

A nicer air-mass.

The preliminary winter weather outlook has been posted.

Another La Nina winter. That could mean increasing chances for milder temperatures. This usually means a higher risk of severe weather, as well.

La Nina winters tend to favor sleet and freezing rain. That doesn’t mean it won’t snow. It is just a matter of probabilities for different weather conditions.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather radars.

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Weather Discussion

Our weather has been dominated by a slow moving upper level low. That is why we have experienced the clouds and scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Some locations have received no measurable rain over the past few days. Other locations have exceed 5.5″. Once again, a wide range of rain totals.

Flash flooding has been reported in some counties.

The good news is the upper level low is slowly slipping southward. We should start to see the rain chances lowering. I guess that is good news for those who don’t want the rain. It is bad news for those still waiting on rain.

Rain chances will be lower Tuesday and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the bulk of the rain chances will have ended. That will leave us with some sunshine.

Dry conditions are likely Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Another system will push into our region Friday and Saturday. This will bring increasing rain chances from southeast to northwest (opposite of the way it usually is). A weak cold front will interact with an incoming upper level low (pushing in from the south southeast).

Expect the highest shower and thunderstorm chances to arrive Saturday and Saturday night. Lower chances by Sunday.

Sunday night into next Tuesday should be dry and pleasant. Cooler temperatures. Lower dew points.

As a reminder, we typically see an uptick in tornado activity from mid-October through the end of November. Some of our deadlier outbreaks have occurred during the autumn and winter months.

Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app downloaded on your phone. Make sure your subscription is up to date.

You can check your subscription by going to www.weathertalk.com

These are the different product screens in the app.

Here is an example of the rapid-fire tornado messages that I send out.

Let’s keep that in the back of our mind. The weather will become increasingly active as we push deeper into the autumn months.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.