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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Saturday through Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, August 31st, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:39 AM
Moonset: 9:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, September 1st, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:44 AM
Moonset: 10:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, September 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90° / SE MO 88° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 88° to 90°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:22 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:54 PM
Moonset: 10:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, September 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a scattered showers and thunderstorm. Chances will be higher during the afternoon hours vs the morning hours. Heat of the day storms. I would not cancel any plans. Monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the afternoon heat of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90° / SE MO 88° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 88° to 90°
Winds will be from the: East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:21 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but ending.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:05 PM
Moonset: 11:40 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Sunday, September 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a scattered showers and thunderstorm. Chances will be higher during the afternoon hours vs the morning hours. Heat of the day storms. I would not cancel any plans. Monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 11 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm. Mainly during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:15 PM
Moonset: :
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday, September 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Primarily after 11 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mainly during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:20 PM
Moonset: 12:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through September 5th: Organized severe weather is unlikely.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Drier and less humid air has arrived.
- Patchy fog during the morning hours.
- Becoming more humid this weekend into early next week.
- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend.
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Weather advice:
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather radars.
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Weather Discussion
Living in a corn field does have some advantages. The sunsets are nice. The wildlife comes right up to the house.
Here was last night sunset and this mornings sunrise at The Weather Observatory.
Quiet weather has arrived.
I know some of you still need rain. I suppose a trade-off to less humid air is worth something.
Unfortunately, it appears today through at least Friday will be dry. Those in need of rain will have to wait.
The good news is that it is less humid today. The muggy air has pushed south of our region. Finally.
Yes, temperatures will be hot over the coming days. Highs may hit 90 degrees. But, it won’t be as muggy. We take what we can get.
It has been a long summer. An odd summer. We have been in severe drought. That severe drought then turned into flooding in some areas.
I received 11.5″ of rain in June and July. Then August hit and it was dry for most of the month. I will end up with about two inches of rain for the month. Most of that fell the first two days and then Monday. The rest of the month was basically dry.
We will see how all of this impacts agriculture. We will know yields over the coming months.
As mentioned above, dry weather will be with us through the work week. High pressure will dominate our region weather.
The high will shift eastward Saturday and Sunday. That will allow dew points to rise. A bit more moisture with push into the region from the south.
This opens the door to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday through at least Tuesday.
Peak chances will be during the afternoon hours. This is during the peak heating of the day. Cumulus clouds will bubble up and produce precipitation.
I would not cancel any weekend plans. I would monitor weather forecast updates and the Beau Dodson Weather radars. Expect some precipitation on the radars both days.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will wane each night with the loss of heating.
It does not appear that severe weather will be a major concern. A few storms could produce gusty winds or isolated downburst winds. Downburst winds can briefly exceed 50 mph. Usually in very small areas.
It will be warm and a bit more humid both Saturday and Sunday. That will linger into early next week.
As a reminder, we typically see an uptick in tornado activity from mid-October through the end of November. Some of our deadlier outbreaks have occurred during the autumn and winter months.
Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app downloaded on your phone. Make sure your subscription is up to date.
You can check your subscription by going to www.weathertalk.com
These are the different product screens in the app.
Here is an example of the rapid-fire tornado messages that I send out.
Let’s keep that in the back of our mind. The weather will become increasingly active as we push deeper into the autumn months.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
Double click on images to enlarge them.
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Early AM Energy/Agriculture Report.
This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am
The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.
Double click this image to make it larger.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers August 31st through September 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers September 8th through September 14th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers September 13th through September 26th
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
October Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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Autumn Forecast
Temperatures
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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