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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Saturday and Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. A strong thunderstorm or two will be possible Saturday and Sunday. The threat of actual severe weather is going to be low.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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August 19, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 88° / SE MO 85° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 885° to 88° / South IL 85° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 88° / West KY 85° to 88° / NW TN 85° to 88°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. Mild. A nice night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 62 to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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August 20, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Mainly over northwestern portions of the area. Towards Perry County, Missouri into the Mt Vernon, Illinois area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over our northern counties
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: Light south southwest wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:10 AM
Moonset: 3:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 21, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Endning north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the rain: Mainly the first half of the night.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:50 AM
Moonset: 4:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 22, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light north wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:35 AM
Moonset: 5:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 23, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:28 AM
Moonset: 5:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 24, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Light east wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:24 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Light east wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:24 AM
Moonset: 7:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through August 24th: Unlikely. I can’t rule out a strong thunderstorm Saturday or Sunday. Overall, the risk of severe weatheris low.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Nice weather today and for most of Saturday.
- Thunderstorm chances this weekend.
- Next week is shaping up mild and dry.
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Weather advice:
None.
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Weather Discussion
We are waking up to a nice morning across the region.
It is going to be a great weather day. No concerns today for the bulk of the region.
Tonight will be nice for camping or outdoor activities. Once again, no weather concerns.
The weather will begin to see a shift Saturday and especially Saturday night.
An upper level disturbance will push southward into the region. This will help in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center even has a low-level risk of damaging wind gusts over our far northern counties Saturday night.
The risk of severe weather is small. I am not overly concerned.
There will be some lightning and locally heavy downpours.
This system could spark a couple of showers and thunderstorms as early as Saturday afternoon over our far northern counties.
More likely, however, will be increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday night into Sunday night area-wide. Ending north to south late Sunday.
Rain totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.50″. Thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy totals. This does not appear to be another extreme rain set-up (like we have witnessed over recent weeks).
Some areas still need additional rain.
It has been fairly dry in some counties. Wet in others. That has been the story of the summer, thus far.
The risk of severe weather Sunday will be small, as well. Perhaps a couple of stronger storms. No tornado threat.
Remember, tornado season returns in October and November. We typically see more severe storms as we change seasons.
Of course, we can have tornadoes, year round. I always like to remind people of that.
Next week is shaping up to be dry and mild.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
Double click on images to enlarge them.
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Early AM Energy Report.
This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am
The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.
Double click this image to make it larger.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers August 19th through August 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers August 26th through September 2nd
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers August 30th through September 12th
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
Autumn Forecast
Temperatures
Precipitation
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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