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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
Temperatures and precipitation chances are going to vary from north to south through Sunday. Keep that in mind.
Areas north of the cold front will be several degrees cooler than areas to the south. This makes for a complicated AREA-WIDE general forecast.
See the written forecast details further down in the blog for each section of the region.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through next Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Storms could be locally intense with high wind gusts.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain, which can quickly flood roadways and ditches.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. The good news is it won’t be every day this week. Highest chances of heat index values above 100 degrees will be Tuesday and Wednesday. It will vary from north to south in the region. I will monitor next Sunday and Monday.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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July 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will vary greatly from north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~4 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 90° to 92°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances late at night over our northern and northeastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~4 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated south to numerous far north
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 70° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:54 AM
Moonset: 6:23 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 26, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. A wide range of temperatures north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~4 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated south to scattered north.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 96° / SE MO 88° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 88° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 94° to 96°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:41 AM
Moonset: 7:13 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 27, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures may vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~4 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 86° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~4 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:35 AM
Moonset: 7:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures may vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~4 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~4 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:35 AM
Moonset: 7:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through August 5th: Thunderstorms over the next seven days could produce scattered reports of wind damage. Monitor forecasts and your Beau Dodson Weather app for updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled week of weather.
- Best chances of rain this summer.
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Weather advice:
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Thunderstorms are likely over the next several days. A few could become severe with high wind gusts.
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Weather Discussion
The good news is that this week won’t be as consistently hot and muggy as last week. That doesn’t mean we won’t have hot periods. It just won’t be as bad day to day to day to day.
A very complicated forecast through next Monday.
The complicated part will be forecast where and when it will rain across our region.
Generally speaking, between now and next Monday, most areas should have three to five chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will vary greatly north to south, as well.
Both precipitation and temperatures will be highly dependent on the placement of a cold front and warm front.
Cooler north of the front. Hot and muggy with excessive heat potential south of the front.
I did my best in the daily forecast at the top of the blog. See the hand written portion.
Numerous disturbances will push across our region over the next seven days.
You can see those on this 500 mb vorticity map. The colors represent the disturbances and lift. Lift will help produce showers and thunderstorms.
Double click images to enlarge them.
It will certainly be a forecast headache for each 12-hour time period over the coming days.
It won’t rain all of the time, of course. There will be intervals of showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rain is likely.
For example, last night more than four inches of rain fell across portions of southwest Indiana. A county or two away received almost no rain. Feast or famine type of activity.
Double click to enlarge this image. Check out southwest Indiana.
Here are the NWS radar estimates. What has already fallen.
Double click each image to enlarge it. Scale is on the left.
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Summer thunderstorms can produce an inch of rain in fifteen minutes.
Some of the storms could also produce high wind gusts. Lightning, of course.
Cooler temperatures are likely Friday into the weekend. That will be because of clouds, showers/thunderstorms, and a cold front.
That front should slide south of the region Saturday. It may return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday. That will boost temperatures again.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM). Double click on images to enlarge them.
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Early AM Energy Report.
Double click on images to enlarge them.
This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am
The highlighted area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers July 25th through July 31st
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers August 1st through August 7th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers August 5th through August 18th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Forecast
Temperatures
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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