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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday, Saturday night, Sunday, Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. There is a risk of severe weather Saturday afternoon and night. The primary concern would be high wind and hail. I will monitor next week. For now, confidence in severe weather is low.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Thunderstorms this time of the year can produce torrential downpours. Pockets of brief flash flooding can’t be ruled out. Avoid flooded roadways.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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May 20, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Windy. Mostly sunny. Hot. Boaters use care on area lakes.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 20 to 40 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong wind gusts. Boaters use care on area lakes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Friday night Forecast: A few late night clouds. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over our far northwest counties (closer to St Louis).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most.
Timing of the rain: After 4 AM near St Louis
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:24 PM
Moonset: 9:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 21, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind and hail. Chances will be higher towards evening into Saturday night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 12 PM. Becoming numerous as we move through the afternoon and evening hours.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds. Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce strong wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the radars.
Moonrise: 1:12 AM
Moonset: 11:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 22, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cooler. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:50 AM
Moonset: 12:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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May 23, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:23 AM
Moonset: 1:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 24, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 78° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 2:50 AM
Moonset: 2:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 3:15 AM
Moonset: 3:37 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through May 24th: There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary concern.
I will monitor next Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, confidence in severe weather is low.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Windy and hot today. Wind advisory.
- Additional showers and storms Saturday/Saturday night (peak chances will be Saturday night).
- A few remaining showers Sunday.
- Unsettled next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Severe thunderstorms raked portions of our region Thursday. Numerous reports of damaging wind and hail were received across northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. At least one or two tornadoes were also reported.
Southwest Indiana was hit hard by large hail, as well.
Today will be a quiet weather day (thunderstorm-wise). It will be quite windy. Boaters should use care. Winds will occasionally gust to 40 mph.
It will be hot today with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
The good news is that we will be precipitation free today and likely tonight, as well.
A strong cold front will push towards the region Saturday and Saturday night. This front will usher in cooler weather and stormier conditions.
For the most part, Saturday morning and early afternoon will likely be dry.
A few models pop scattered showers and thunderstorms during the mid-afternoon hours across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. There is no model consensus on this. Check radars from time to time if you see clouds thicken.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will rapidly expand by late afternoon and especially Saturday night. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region during this time-period.
Locally heavy rain and lightning will accompany the frontal passage. A few storms could produce high winds and quarter size hail. There is a risk of severe weather. Monitor updates.
The frontal boundary will push across the region by Sunday. Sunday will be quite a bit cooler and less humid. Some clouds and showers will linger into Sunday, as well.
By Sunday night, the precipitation will be exiting the region. It will push off to the east.
Monday will be dry. A decent weather day.
A few showers may drift back into the region late Monday night. Nothing major.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Lightning. The severe weather risk will depend on just how unstable the atmosphere becomes. For now, the risk appears low. Monitor updates. It is that time of the year.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely linger into Wednesday night, as well.
There is conflicting data as to whether shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into Thursday and Friday. I will monitor trends.
Temperatures will hover near normal next week. With enough clouds and precipitation, temperatures may end up slightly below average. Either way, nothing extreme.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers May 20th through May 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers May 27th through June 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers June 3rd through June 19th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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