Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

.

May 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Windy.   A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° /  South IL 72° to 75°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75°  /  West KY 72° to 75° /  NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Gusty winds. Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could be intense during the afternoon over mainly western Kentucky and Tennessee.  The further east and southeast you travel the greater the risk of a few intense storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset:  7:47 PM
.

Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms during the evening (mainly KY/TN).  Chances shifting south and east during the evening hours.  A few storms during the evening could be intense over Kentucky and Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 760%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Mainly before 10 PM.  Chances shift south and east with time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° /  SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° /  South IL 52° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° /  West KY 52° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  A few evening storms could be intense over KY/TN.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 7:35 AM
Moonset: 10:50 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

May 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  The bulk of the day will be dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 1 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 74° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  After midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° /  SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 58° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 11:45 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

May 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 80%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /  the rest of South IL ~ 70%  /  West KY ~ 70%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%  /  NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°  /  SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° /  South IL 74° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 76° to 80°
Winds will be from the:   South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
.

Thursday night Forecast:   A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 80%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% /  the rest of South IL ~ 80%  /  West KY ~ 80%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80%  /  NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° /  SE MO 56° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 58° /  South IL 56° to 58° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° /  West KY 56° to 58° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 9:04 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

May 6, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:   Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72°  /  West KY 70° to 72° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lighting.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset:  7:49 PM
.

Friday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
Moonrise: 9:57 AM
Moonset: 12:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

May 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  A slight chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 10%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset:  7:50 PM
.

Saturday night Forecast:   Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° /  SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° /  West KY 52° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 1:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

May 8, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:   Mostly sunny.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80°  /  SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° /  South IL 75° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80°  /  West KY 75° to 80° /  NW TN 75° to 80°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset:  7:51 PM
.

Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
Moonset: 1:59 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

.

.

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Today through May 8th:  There is a small risk of a severe thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.  The risk will mainly be gusty wind and hail.

There is a larger risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night.  Some of the storms could produce damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.  Monitor updates.

.

.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

.

Forecast Discussion

Today

Thunderstorms pushed through the area overnight.  Some of the storms produced 45 mph wind gusts, nickel size hail, torrential rain, and frequent vivid lightning.  There was one report of quarter size hail in northwest Tennessee.

A couple of shallow-rooted trees fell over in eastern Calloway County during an evening storm.  It appears to have been downburst wind gusts.

Otherwise, the storms remained below severe levels.  There were several severe thunderstorm warnings between 9 PM and 3 AM, but it appears the storms never quite achieved the strength to produce severe reports.   I sent out an alert before 8 PM warning my subscribers that a few storms could be intense overnight.

We still have some showers in the region as of this writing (7 AM).  A couple of lightning strikes, as well.  Nothing extreme.

We will have gusty winds today.  Boaters use caution.  Winds will gust above 30 mph.

A system will push across the region today into this evening.  A few more thunderstorms could develop this afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center believes there could be an isolated severe weather risk over mainly western Kentucky later today.  Overall, the risk appears small.  I am not overly concerned.  As always, monitor updates and your Beau Dodson Weather app.

The main concern will be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  The eastern portions of western Kentucky.

Otherwise, plan on some scattered precipitation today into early evening.  See the radars.

The rain showers will come to an end tonight.

Some patchy fog is possible tonight.

.

Wednesday and Wednesday night

No significant weather concerns Wednesday.  It will be dry the first half of the day.  Then, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day.  The chances will be a bit higher over Missouri and Illinois.  Still, expect most of the day to be dry across the area.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night as our next weather system approaches the region.

.

Thursday into Sunday

Thursday is shaping up to be an active weather day.  We may have to deal with severe thunderstorms.

We have a warm front that will lift through the region early in the day.  Scattered thunderstorms are likely along the warm front.  Some of those storms could become severe.

Another round of storms will race through the region Thursday night.  This is likely to be a long squall line that will extend from the Missouri Valley to the Gulf of Mexico.  We call this a QLCS event.

This QLCS event could produce all modes of severe weather.  That includes damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.

This event is still 48+ hours away.  Thus, the smaller details will need to be worked out.

That would include whether the morning activity influences what happens later in the afternoon and overnight hours.  Sometimes, morning showers and thunderstorms can stabilize the atmosphere just enough to prevent a larger event later in the day.  This remains a question.

The FV3 model shows showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning.  This will muddle the waters, if true.

6 AM future-cast radar from the FV3 model.  That would be quite a bit of cloud cover and precipitation in the region.

The dew point maps.

10 AM dew points.  Higher dew points are moving northward along the warm front.  Dew point is a measure of moisture.  It is one ingredient when predicting severe weather.

I typically look for upper 50s to 60s (or higher).  That is plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to feed off of.

Late afternoon dew points.  You can see much higher dews have pushed into the region.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a level one, two, and three severe weather risk.  This event is still 48+ hours out.  Adjustments in their outlook are likely.

Here is what it looked like as of 7 AM Tuesday.

Stay tuned.  Have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.  Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather app.  Make sure your account at www.weathertalk.com is active.

A few showers and thundershowers are possible Friday and Friday evening.

Most likely dry Saturday (small shower chance).

Dry Sunday into Monday.

.

April numbers are in.

There were some big rain totals!  Double click on the image to enlarge it.

.

.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

.

 

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

.

.

.

Double click on images to enlarge them

.

 

.

 

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 3rd through May 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
.
This outlook covers May 10th through May 16th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

.

.

.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

.

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  81 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers May 30th through May 30th

Precipitation outlook

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

.