Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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May 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.  Highest coverage across southeast Missouri.  Lesser coverage as you travel north and east.
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° /  South IL 74° to 78°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°  /  West KY 74° to 78° /  NW TN 76° to 80°
Winds will be from the:  South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset:  7:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  A few storms could be intense.  Mainly over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee with a lesser risk further east/northeast.  Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary concern.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 80%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 70%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° /  SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 64° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Hail and gusty winds with a few storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:50 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°  /  SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° /  South IL 74° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 76° to 80°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could be intense during the afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset:  7:47 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms during the evening (mainly KY/TN).  Chances shifting south and east during the evening hours.  A few storms during the evening could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 760%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Mainly before midnight.  Chances shift south and east with time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  A few evening storms could be intense over KY/TN.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 7:35 AM
Moonset: 10:50 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 72° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  After midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 58° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 11:45 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° /  South IL 74° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the:   South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:   A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° /  SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 9:04 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 6, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:   Partly sunny. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72°  /  West KY 70° to 72° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset:  7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:57 AM
Moonset: 12:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny. A slight chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 10%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° /  South IL 74° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset:  7:50 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 1:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through May 8th:  A few storms could be severe this afternoon and tonight.  The primary concern will be across southeast Missouri and western Tennessee with lesser chances of severe storms as you move into Kentucky and Illinois.

The threat will mainly be damaging wind and hail.  The concern could linger well into the overnight hours/morning hours.  Be weather aware.  Overall, confidence in severe weather occurring is rather low.

Another risk of severe weather will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening.  This will mainly be across Kentucky and Tennessee.  Morning cloud cover and precipitation may help keep the atmosphere stabilized.  If that happens then the risk will be low.

Once again, confidence in severe weather developing Tuesday is low.

Another risk of severe weather will develop Thursday and Thursday night.   It is a bit early to know the extent of the Thursday risk.  There are indications that Thursday may deliver the highest risk of the week.  Monitor updates.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

Today

We are waking up to dry conditions across the region.

Radar shows a large area of showers and thunderstorms well off to our west southwest.  This is moving eastward.

You can see that on this static radar image from  7 AM

The numbers are the 7 AM temperatures.

As we move through the day, showers and thunderstorms will push eastward into southern Missouri and Arkansas.  A few of these storms could be intense, but the risk of severe weather will be low with this first round.

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible tonight.  There remain some questions about whether the atmosphere over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas will be able to recover from the morning clouds and precipitation.  If the atmosphere does not recover then the severe risk will be low.

If the atmosphere does recover, then damaging wind and large hail will be possible across portions of the region.  The risk is a bit higher over southern Missouri and the Bootheel into northwest Tennessee.

A lower risk across Illinois and Kentucky.

The risk tonight could continue into the wee morning hours.  Thus, leave your weather radio on, leave your Beau Dodson Weather app on, and have multiple ways of receiving severe weather information.

Overall, confidence in severe weather developing tonight is low.  Monitor updates, as always.

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Tuesday and Tuesday night

Low confidence on severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will likely deliver additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

One of those chances will be early in the morning.  The morning activity may leave quite a bit of cloud debris behind.  If that happens, then that will lesser the risk of severe weather later in the day across much of the region.

There are differing opinions on how high rain chances will be Tuesday.

If the morning activity exits quickly, then much of the day may end up dry.  At least until additional showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon and evening hours.

It is the afternoon and evening hour activity that could produce some reports of high wind and hail.  Again, that will be highly dependent on the atmosphere recharging from the morning activity.  That is definitely not a given.  Thus, monitor updates.

The risk Tuesday afternoon and evening will be highest across Kentucky and Tennessee.  See the day two severe weather outlook graphic (above).

Again, it is possible that the risk just does not materialize because the atmosphere won’t be able to recharge itself.  Confidence in severe weather Tuesday afternoon and night is low.

Let me show you the NSSL WRF model.

Notice the morning hours have scattered showers and thunderstorms. Clouds.  Some models have more and some models have less activity early Tuesday morning.

And then a lot of models show new activity forming in the afternoon.  It is possible that this forms further east and southeast.  If that happens then our severe risk is very low Tuesday afternoon and night.

Evening  future-cast radar.  5 PM.  It would be this activity that would pose the threat of severe weather.

Here are the CAPE maps for Tuesday.

CAPE is energy that fuels thunderstorms.

You can barely see some surface CAPE Tuesday morning (early).

Then, notice the placement of the afternoon CAPE.  It is further across our eastern and southeastern counties.  Where this CAPE develops will be key to whether there is a threat of severe weather during the afternoon and evening.

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Wednesday into Friday

Wednesday will be dry.  A little cooler, but nothing extreme.  It should be the pick day of the work-week.

Another system will push towards the region Wednesday night.  This will deliver additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

Depending on how much activity lingers into Thursday morning, there could be another round of heavy thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a risk of severe thunderstorms during this time-period.  Perhaps a higher end risk if everything comes together.

A cold front will push across the region Thursday.  That will occur as an area of low pressure passes to our north.  That places us in the warm sector.  The warm sector is where severe weather typically occurs.

It is a bit early to know if Thursday’s weather will turn severe.  There is a risk.  Thus, monitor updates moving forward.

Here is the Thursday afternoon CAPE map.

A few showers will linger into Friday and perhaps Friday night.  Friday will be cooler, as well.

There is a tiny chance of showers lingering into Saturday.  Plan on Saturday and Sunday being dry.  I will monitor trends.

Hopefully, both days will be dry and nice!

Rain totals from now through Friday will likely top one inch in many areas.  This will vary greatly depending on the placement of thunderstorms.  If some counties receive repeated thunderstorms, then rain totals could easily be doubled.

Here is the official NOAA rainfall forecast for the week ahead.

Again, this is broad-brushed and it will vary.

April numbers are in.

There were some big rain totals!  Double click on the image to enlarge it.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Double click on images to enlarge them

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers May 2nd through May 8th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers May 9th through May 15th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  79 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers May 13th through May 26th

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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