April 29, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Today, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and night. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary concern. I can’t rule out a tornado. I am monitoring next week. We may have a couple of chances of severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates moving forward. The live severe weather blog has been activated, as well. Here is that link CLICK HERE

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain will be possible where thunderstorms develop. If some areas receive repeated thunderstorms, then there could be some water issues. Mostly commonly flooded areas (ditches, easily flooded fields and creeks, and roadways).

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

April 29, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of mainly morning showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be highest across Missouri and Illinois. Mainly the further north and northwest you travel (lesser coverage Bootheel, far southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 70° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 76° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 80°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Once again, coverage will be highest across Missouri and Illinois. Mainly the further north and northwest you travel (lesser coverage Bootheel, far southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 58° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 5:35 AM
Moonset: 6:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 30, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence

There is a risk that a few storms could become severe Saturday afternoon and evening. There remain questions about whether dew points will be high enough for a significant risk of severe thunderstorms. Let’s be weather aware Saturday afternoon and evening.

Saturday Forecast: Much of Saturday may be dry. Partly sunny. Warm and windy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the precipitation will occur during the afternoon hours. Some storms could be severe during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 78° to 80°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Be weather aware Saturday afternoon
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe. Coverage will be highest before 11 PM. Ending west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Be weather aware Saturday evening
Moonrise: 6:01 AM
Moonset: 7:47 PM
The phase of the moon: New

May 1, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 76° to 78°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 52° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:29 AM
Moonset: 8:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly MO and IL)
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 76° to 80°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be intense. Mainly over southeast Missouri. Hail will be the primary concern.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Hail and gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be intense during the afternoon and evening.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° / South IL 74° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 76° / NW TN 76° to 80°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be intense during the afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely during the evening. Chances shifting south and east during the evening hours. A few storms during the evening could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight. Chances shift south and east with time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 7:35 AM
Moonset: 10:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 74° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 76° / NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 11:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° / South IL 74° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 76° / NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 9:04 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 6, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:57 AM
Moonset: 12:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° / South IL 74° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 76° / NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 1:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

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Today through May 3rd: A few storms could become severe Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Scattered supercell thunderstorms will be possible. The storms will first develop over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The storms will then spread eastward.

The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail. There is a risk of a tornado or two.

There are questions about how much activity will develop Saturday afternoon and evening. Monitor updates.

I am watching several systems next week, but confidence is too low to outline an area of severe weather. Monitor updates. I expect at least one of the systems to produce a risk of severe weather.

The live severe weather blog has been activated, as well. Here is that link CLICK HERE

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. A few showers and thunderstorms this morning over mainly our northern counties.
2. Mostly dry today across the region. Mostly dry tonight, as well.
3. Severe weather risk Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
4. Unsettled weather over the coming one to two weeks.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Forecast Discussion

Today

We are waking up to showers across our northern counties. Mostly northern portions of southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois. This is occurring along a warm front.

A good bit of the region is precipitation free.

Most of today will be dry (once this activity lifts northward).

The warm front will be north of the region tonight. That places us in a mostly capped environment. The chance of precipitation tonight will be low. Perhaps a couple of showers or thunderstorms (mainly late).

Saturday and Saturday night

Our region will be in the warm sector of a storm system Saturday.

An area of low pressure will pass well to our north. This system will drag a cold front into the region during the late morning and afternoon hours.

There may be a few dying showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning, but the bulk of the region may be dry before noon.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Scattered storms.

If you have outdoor plans, then go about your plans. Monitor updates. Monitor radars. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.

There will be some instability to work with. CAPE values (energy for storms to tap into) will likely exceed 1000. There will be some wind shear to work with, as well.

CAPE values Saturday afternoon and evening. Notice those lower CAPE values over portions of our region. Then, higher CAPE values right on the front.

There are some questions about this event. There appears to be a tongue of lower dew points pushing northward ahead of the front. All models show this. Then, it pools higher dew points immediately on the front.

This raises some questions. Those lower dew points could reduce the severe weather threat.

You can see that on this dew point map.

Notice the blues right on the front (drier air right behind the front). Then, notice that area of lower dew points ahead of the blues (in between the blues).

Let me show you the Hrrr model guidance. One high res model. This is how it handles the Saturday afternoon and evening’s thunderstorms. Keep in mind, this is one model.

I think it has a decent handle on the event. There are questions about how many storms form. Forcing is fairly weak along the front. It is greater to our north.

Weak forcing could mean scattered storms vs numerous storms.

With time, the storms may congeal into a line.

7 AM Saturday

1 PM Saturday

4 PM Saturday

7 PM Saturday

Around 10 PM Saturday

This is not a slam dunk severe weather forecast. The bottom line is that we will need to monitor storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Thunderstorms that form could produce damaging wind and hail. A few reports. There is enough spin in the atmosphere to produce a tornado or two, as well. This appears to be a short-lived tornado threat. It does not appear that long-tracked tornadoes will be a concern.

Either way, let’s monitor weather updates Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. There may be some watches and warnings issued by the SPC and the NWS.

I will send out app messages if necessary.

The live severe weather blog has been activated, as well. Here is that link CLICK HERE

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a level one and two severe weather risk.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

Ignore the thick black lines.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Sunday onward

Sunday should be a nice day across the region. I do not expect showers or thunderstorms. Nice temperatures, as well. Enjoy the day!

There will be some increase in clouds Sunday night.

Late Sunday night a couple of showers or thunderstorms may develop over mainly southeast Missouri.

Unsettled weather is likely Monday into much of next week.

There are significant questions about the timing of each system that will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the region.

One system will push through the region Monday and Tuesday. Expect at least scattered showers and thunderstorms during this time period.

There will likely be six to twelve hour periods with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The problem right now, is timing those periods.

I have broad-brushed precipitation chances Monday into the middle of next week. As we draw closer to each time-period, then I will adjust those numbers. As confidence rises, I will adjust them.

Plan on at least some precipitation in the region Monday and Tuesday. That may continue into Wednesday and Thursday, as well.

Some locally heavy rain will be possible. I can’t rule out severe weather, but the severe weather signal is not quite strong enough to include it in the current forecast. Monitor updates.

Rain totals

Let’s try and break this down. Of course, storms can always enhance rain totals. Keep that in mind. A couple of storms can easily double your totals, as always.

Through 7 AM Saturday

Through 7 AM Sunday

Through 7 AM Monday

Through 7 AM Wednesday

Through 7 AM Friday

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 29h through May 5th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
.
This outlook covers May 6th through May 12th

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 79 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers May 13th through May 26th

Precipitation outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

SPRING OUTLOOK

Temperatures

Precipitation.

Monthly Outlooks

April Temperature Outlook

April Precipitation Outlook

May Temperature outlook

May Precipitations Outlook

SUMMER OUTLOOK

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

June Temperature Outlook

June Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

August Temperature Outlook

August Precipitation Outlook

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.