Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Confidence in the daily chances of precipitation is currently MEDIUM.  There may be adjustments to the precipitation probability number.

I am struggling with Saturday’s numbers.  The bulk of Saturday’s rain may end up being late afternoon into the overnight hours.  If you have outdoor plans, then monitor updates.  

48-hour forecast

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April 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast:   Intervals of sun and clouds.  A chance of a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are primarily southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~  0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (Missouri)
Timing of the rain: After 1 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 75° /  NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the:  East southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. (Missouri)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset:  7:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Coverage will be highest across Missouri and Illinois.  Mainly the further north and northwest you travel (lesser coverage Bootheel, far southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° /  South IL 52° to 55° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° /  West KY 52° to 55° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 5:10 AM
Moonset: 5:44 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 29, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Coverage will be highest across Missouri and Illinois.  Mainly the further north and northwest you travel (lesser coverage Bootheel, far southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° /  South IL 72° to 75°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 78° to 80°
Winds will be from the:  South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset:  7:43 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Once again, coverage should be highest across Missouri and Illinois. Mainly the further north and northwest you travel (lesser coverage Bootheel, far southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° /  SE MO 56° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 58° /  South IL 54° to 58° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° /  West KY 54° to 58° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 5:35 AM
Moonset: 6:46 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 30, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°  /  SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° /  South IL 74° to 78°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 78° /  NW TN 78° to 80°
Winds will be from the:  South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could be severe with damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset:  7:44 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° /  SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° /  South IL 55° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 55° to 60° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.   Some storms could be severe with damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 6:01 AM
Moonset: 7:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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May 1, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 76° /  South IL 74° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the:  West southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset:  7:45 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° /  SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° /  West KY 53° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 6:29 AM
Moonset: 8:49 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Monday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°  /  SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° /  South IL 73° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 76° /  NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the:  South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset:  7:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 9:50 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° /  South IL 73° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the:  Variable wind direction 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset:  7:47 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 7:35 AM
Moonset: 10:50 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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May 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° /  South IL 73° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the:  Variable wind direction 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
UV Index: 6.  High.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset:  7:48 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 11:45 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through May 3rd:  I am monitoring Saturday for the risk of a few severe thunderstorms.  The primary concern will be during the afternoon into the overnight hours.  A few storms could produce damaging wind and hail.  I can’t rule out a tornado.

I am monitoring next week for several chances of showers and thunderstorms.  I can’t rule out severe weather.  Monitor updates.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

Today

A quiet day is on tap for the region.  Highs will top out in the 70s across the region.  We are seeing an increase in clouds ahead of our next storm system.  See the satellite imagery to track the clouds.  Click here (once there – hit refresh)

Clouds will continue to thicken into this afternoon.  The region will remain dry through the afternoon hours.

A few showers are showing up on the 8 AM radar.  There is some dry air over our region.  It will make it difficult for precipitation to push much further east.  If something were to survive, it would be in southeast Missouri.  Light showers, at best.

What radar looked like at 8 AM.

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Tonight into Friday night

An upper level disturbance will approach the region tonight.  This disturbance will spread some showers and thunderstorms into at least southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois during the overnight hours.

There are questions about just how far south and east these showers will be able to push.  I do have at least low-end precipitation chances area-wide late tonight into tomorrow.

I do not expect heavy precipitation.  Perhaps a few lightning bolts.  Nothing severe tonight or tomorrow.

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Friday night into Sunday

I have showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Friday night into Saturday night.  It is definitely not going to rain all of the time.  As a matter of fact, much of the time may remain dry.

Plan on scattered showers and thunderstorms.

There is a concern that the atmosphere will destabilize enough for a few severe thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

CAPE values will pop above 1000 (CAPE is energy for storms to tap into).  Wind fields will be sufficient to support at least a low-end severe thunderstorm risk.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a level one and two severe weather risk.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

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Model guidance is uncertain about the extent of the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity.  There are suggestions in the data that supercells may initially form Saturday afternoon and evening.  They would then spread east/northeast through the region.  Eventually, the supercells would turn into a line of thunderstorms.

If supercells do form, then damaging wind, large hail, and even a tornado will be possible.

There are uncertainties about the risk level.

Some guidance keeps the threat further north.  I noticed some of the high resolution models show very little precipitation in our region Saturday.

For the time being, the forecast remains intact.  I have adjusted the % probability numbers for the precipitation chances.   I have been bouncing them between 40% and 60% Friday night into Saturday night.  I lowered them a bit in this morning’s update.

Either way, the message is the same.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next couple of days.  It is possible that some areas receive very little in the way of measurable precipitation.  Others will receive heavy downpours.

Let’s be weather aware Saturday afternoon and night.

If you have outdoor plans, then go about your plans.  Monitor updates.  Monitor radars.  Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.

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Sunday onward

Sunday should be dry across the region.  We will be in between systems.  A lull in precipitation chances.

A series of systems will push across the region Sunday night into next week.  We are going to have on and off shower and thunderstorm chances.  Locally heavy rain will be a possibility.

We are going to have to monitor the threat of severe weather next week, as well.  Right now, there is not a defined time period where the risk appears significant enough to mention.

I capped precipitation chances at thirty-perfect, for now.  I am sure there will be adjustments as confidence increases in each 12-hour time-period.

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Rain totals

Let’s try and break this down.  Of course, storms can always enhance rain totals.  Keep that in mind.  A couple of storms can easily double your totals, as always.

Through 7 AM Friday

Through 7 AM Saturday

Through 7 AM Sunday

Through 7 AM Tuesday

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 28th through May 4th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 9:30 and 10:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers May 5th through May 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  79 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers May 10th through May 23rd

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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