April 20, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Wednesday into Thursday. Lightning is possible Sunday into Monday. Peak chances being Sunday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. At this time, the threat of severe weather appears minimal. A few reports of hail will be possible over southeast Missouri. I continue to watch a strong cold front Sunday/Monday. I can’t rule out stronger storms with it, but confidence in a severe weather risk remains low.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

April 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Thickening clouds. Breezy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances increase PM hours vs AM. Chances increase west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered AM becoming more numerous PM
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few reports of hail (mainly SE MO).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Tapering west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 52° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 52° to 54° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 8:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
UV Index: 5. High.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower. Mainly across our far northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:34 AM
Moonset: 9:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 22, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 80° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 80° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:37 AM
Moonset: 11:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 23, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 80° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 80° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Winds will be from the: South 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:30 AM
Moonset: 12:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

April 24, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Still some questions on the timing of precipitation. Most of the day may end up dry. Better chances towards evening into the overnight hours. Thickening clouds west to east. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° / West KY 76° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the radars
Moonrise: 3:12 AM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 25, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cooler. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Evening clouds. Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:48 AM
Moonset: 2:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 26, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:19 AM
Moonset: 3:37 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 27, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:45 AM
Moonset: 4:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:10 AM
Moonset: 5:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 29, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 50° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:35 AM
Moonset: 6:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

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Today through April 25th: At this time, the threat of severe weather remains low. A few reports of hail will be possible over mainly southeast Missouri today (Wednesday/Wednesday night). A lower risk across the rest of the area.

I am watching Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. A stronger cold front will push across the region Sunday night. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms, but the overall confidence in severe weather remains low. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Thickening clouds. Rain chances increasing today and tonight.
2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Less coverage.
3. Much warmer Friday and Saturday. Nice days! A bit windy.
4. Thunderstorms possible Sunday into Monday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Forecast Discussion

The primary weather concern today and tomorrow will be a system moving across the region from west to east. This system will bring showers and thunderstorms.

7 AM radar showed showers and thunderstorms approaching our region.

A few showers have already moved into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. All of the precipitation is moving east/northeast.

Those numbers were the 7 AM temperatures.

Peak precipitation chances will be this afternoon and tonight. See the future-cast radars further down in the blow.

Thunderstorms are possible today into tomorrow. There is a small risk of quarter size hail. A few reports of smaller hail will be possible. The hail threat is slightly higher across southeast Missouri vs the rest of the area.

Locally heavy downpours will be possible, as well. Lightning, of course.

Thursday will deliver quite a few clouds with some remaining showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be less than this afternoon and tonight.

Warm temperatures Thursday.

Rainfall totals today through Thursday. Broad-brushed.

All of the shower and thunderstorm activity should exit the region Thursday night. That will leave us with a dry night. Cool temperatures.

Friday and Saturday remain the pick days of the weekend. Expect widespread upper 70s and lower 80s both days! This could be the warmest two day period of the year, thus far. I don’t hear any complaints about that! We deserve some warmer temperatures.

It will be breezy, at times. Thus, use care if you are boating this weekend. Saturday wind gusts will be higher than Friday and could top 25 mph (from time to time).

Saturday 1 PM wind forecast (gusts).

Dry conditions both Friday and Saturday.

Our next cold front will already be on the way by Sunday.

Expect morning sunshine with increasing afternoon clouds. Warm temperatures. I can’t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on Sunday. For the most part, it should be dry. Check radars.

Showers and thunderstorm chances rapidly increase Sunday evening and night. A period of widespread precipitation is likely. Locally heavy downpours are possible. Lightning, of course.

For now, the severe weather risk appears minimal. I continue to monitor trends on that topic. Monitor updates.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Monday.

Precipitation chances will taper west to east Monday night and Tuesday. Perhaps a few remaining showers.

Rain totals today through next Tuesday. Broad-brushed. This is the two events combined.

UPDATED MAY AND JUNE OUTLOOKS

May Temperature outlook

May Precipitations Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

June Temperature Outlook

June Precipitation Outlook

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 20th through April 26th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 9:30 and 10:30 AM

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
.
This outlook covers April 27th through May 3rd

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers April 29th through May 12th

Precipitation outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

SPRING OUTLOOK

Temperatures

Precipitation.

Monthly Outlooks

April Temperature Outlook

April Precipitation Outlook

May Temperature outlook

May Precipitations Outlook

SUMMER OUTLOOK

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

June Temperature Outlook

June Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

August Temperature Outlook

August Precipitation Outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.