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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the severe weather threat. Link: Click here.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today and tonight. A low chance Saturday night into Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Hail, wind, and tornadoes will be possible. Monitor updates. The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated. Link: Click here.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain today and tonight could cause flash flooding in areas that received heavy rain over the last few days.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for Monday through Wednesday’s severe weather threat. Link: Click here.
April 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Thunderstorms likely. Some storms will likely be severe with damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. Windy and warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Southerly winds at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Have a family safety plan in the event of severe weather.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity ending west to east overnight. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 42° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Have a family safety plan in the event of severe weather.
Moonrise: 4:18 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Decreasing morning clouds. Becoming sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:23 PM
Moonset: 5:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible (esp far southern counties).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 6:31 PM
Moonset: 5:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower. A thunderstorm will be possible (esp far southern counties).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:31 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 42° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:40 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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April 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 40° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:52 PM
Moonset: 6:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through April 15th: Severe weather will occur later today and tonight. Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will occur today and tonight. See the LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG for more details. Link: Click here.
The highest risk of severe thunderstorms will be Wednesday.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Stormy weather.
- Severe weather risks. Heavy rain risks.
- Have three to five ways of receiving severe weather information.
- Dry Thursday and Friday.
- Watching another system Friday night into Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Weather advice:
The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for Monday through Wednesday’s severe weather threat. Link: Click here.
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
For today’s severe weather updates, please see the severe weather live blog.
—> The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for Monday through Wednesday’s severe weather threat. Link: Click here.
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Friday through Monday:
We will have another system approach the region Friday night into Monday. A few scattered showers are possible Friday night into Monday.
Friday night’s chance will be widely scattered. Same for Saturday and Saturday night.
Scattered showers are possible Sunday. A bit higher chances Sunday night. I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder. Severe weather is not anticipated.
I know it is a holiday weekend. I would change my Saturday plans.
I would keep an eye on radar Sunday, but would not change my plans. Monitor updated forecasts over the coming days.
Models have not been in agreement about the extent of the rain coverage Sunday into Monday. Some of the guidance shows numerous showers and even thunderstorms Sunday. Other data sets are showing widely scattered precipitation. Have a plan B in case rain does develop.
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Monitor updates. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App. Monitor local media. Have THREE TO FIVE ways of receiving severe weather information. Do not rely on just one source. Every source can fail at one point or another. Thus, having multiple sources of severe weather information is the best advice.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 12th through April 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are usually updated between 9:30 and 10:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 19th through April 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers April 26th through May 9th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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