Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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April 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:   Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely during the morning.  Precipitation chances tapering by late morning into the afternoon hours.  Some clearing from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 70%  /  West KY ~ 90%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100%  /  NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread during the morning hours.  Scattered during the afternoon (mainly east)
Timing of the rain:  Highest coverage before 12 PM.  Ending west to east.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.  A couple of storms could be strong.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the morning and check the radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset:  7:22 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Clearing. A slight chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm over our far eastern counties (Pennyrile area of Kentucky).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 10%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (east)
Timing of the rain: Before 7 PM over our far eastern counties.  Most of the region will be dry.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° /  SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° /  South IL 38° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° /  West KY 40° to 42° /  NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning (early in the evening).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:33 AM
Moonset: 12:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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April 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:   Partly sunny before noon.  Increasing afternoon clouds from west to east.  Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58°  /  SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 56°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°  /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest to west 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset:  7:23 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a few late night showers.  Rain may be mixed with snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° /  SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° /  South IL 38° to 42° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° /  West KY 40° to 42° /  NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: West 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:23 AM
Moonset: 12:59 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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April 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Windy.  Cool.   A chance of scattered showers.  Rain may be mixed with graupel or snow.  No accumulation, of course.  A rumble of thunder possible.  Small hail possible in thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.  Coverage will be higher east of the MS River vs west of the MS River.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°  /  SE MO 48° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 45° to 50°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°  /  West KY 45° to 50° /  NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: West 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.  Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset:  7:24 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Clearing.  Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered early.
Timing of the rain: Before 9 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° /  SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° /  South IL 32° to 34° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° /  West KY 33° to 36° /  NW TN 33° to 36°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:12 AM
Moonset: 1:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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April 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cool with windy conditions.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55°  /  SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° /  South IL 50° to 54°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54°  /  West KY 52° to 55° /  NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset:  7:25 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° /  SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° /  South IL 32° to 34° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° /  West KY 33° to 36° /  NW TN 33° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:08 PM
Moonset: 2:42 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Warmer.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°  /  SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° /  South IL 65° to 70°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70°  /  West KY 66° to 70° /  NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset:  7:26 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorms after 2 AM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 2 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° /  West KY 53° to 56° /  NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:07 PM
Moonset: 3:24 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset:  7:27 PM
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Monday  night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 50%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° /  SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° /  South IL 55° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 55° to 60° /  NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 2:09 PM
Moonset: 4:01 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset:  7:28 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 50%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° /  SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° /  South IL 55° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 55° to 60° /  NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 3:13 PM
Moonset: 4:34 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through April 15th: There is a small risk of severe weather today over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

I am closely monitoring next Monday through Wednesday.  Warmer air will push into the region.  Dew points will also be on the rise.  Some of the thunderstorms could be strong.  It is a bit early to know certainties.  Monitor updates over the coming days.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

Our unsettled weather pattern continues.

We are waking up to widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Some locally heavy downpours, as well.  Quiet a bit of lightning.  No severe weather, thankfully.

Here is what the 7 AM radar looked like.  Quite a bit of coverage this morning.  See the live radars at the bottom of the page for the latest imagery.

Morning infra-red satellite shows the cold cloud tops (cumulonimbus clouds).  Thunderstorms.

The red colors represent the tallest clouds.

The white dots represent lightning strikes.  Some of you woke up to lightning and thunder earlier this morning.

I picked up 0.35″ of rain at the Weather Observatory since midnight.  Some of you have double that (where the heavier thunderstorms have trained over the same areas).

Some locations received a lot more than that.  Thunderstorms trained over the same areas and produced these numbers.  When you have training storms, this can happen.

I did not expect such large numbers.

All of this precipitation will continue to shift eastward this morning.

We will dry out west to east as we move through the day.  We might even see some clearing.

There is a low risk of a few intense thunderstorms over our eastern counties.  Gusty wind and hail would be the primary concern.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a few of our eastern counties in a marginal risk of severe weather.

Dry conditions are anticipated tonight with cool temperatures.

Dry Thursday into Thursday evening, as well.

A large upper level low will pivot into the area late Thursday night into Friday night.

This is what that upper-level low looks like at the 500 mb level (thousands of feet aloft).

The colors represent vorticity.  The end result will be some light showers and maybe a rain/snow mix.

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This system will spread clouds back into the region from north to south.  It will also deliver chilly temperatures.

Scattered rain showers will be possible late Thursday night into Friday evening.  The rain could be mixed with graupel (snow pellets) or snow.  No accumulation, of course.  A rumble of thunder will also be possible.  Perhaps some pea to dime size hail.

Temperatures will drop into the 30s Friday night.  Gusty winds, as well.

Saturday will be cool, but dry.  Gusty winds.

Saturday night will once again be cold with widespread 30s.

The good news is that Sunday is shaping up to once again be the pick day of the weekend.  Warmer temperatures with some sunshine.  Should be nice for outdoor activities.

A series of systems will push across the region late Sunday night through next Thursday.

Plan on scattered showers and thunderstorms through that time-period.

I am monitoring the risk of severe thunderstorms.  Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas to our west/southwest for severe thunderstorms.

Monday’s current severe weather outlook

Tuesday’s severe weather outlook

Wednesday’s comments from the SPC

The main cold front probably won’t arrive until Wednesday night and Thursday.  The risk of severe weather may be highest with the cold front.  Still, this is several days away and adjustments are certainly possible.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

Widespread drought across the central and western United States.

You can see the fire danger is high in the drought zones.

7 AM static map showing alerts.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 6th through April 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 9:30 and 10:30 AM

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 12th through April 18th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  72 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers April 19th through May 2nd

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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