Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

A wind advisory has been issued across the entire Quad State from 7AM-7PM Wednesday. Southerly winds sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph are expected. Isolated gusts to 55 mph will be possible, especially in the KY Pennyrile.

The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for Wednesday’s severe weather potential.

Here is the link to the live severe weather blog.  CLICK HERE.

48-hour forecast

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March 29, 2021

The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for Wednesday’s severe weather potential.

Here is the link to the live severe weather blog.  CLICK HERE.
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warmer.  Breezy.  A bit cooler over our northeastern counties vs elsewhere.  A light shower will be possible over northern portions of southern Illinois.  Mainly this morning.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°  /  SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 62° /  South IL 60° to 70°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways (northern counties)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset:  7:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of mainly late night showers and thunderstorms.  Mainly over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 10%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (coverage will be highest over Missouri)
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° /  SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° /  South IL 56° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° /  West KY 58° to 60° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the:   South 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:45 AM
Moonset: 4:40 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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March 30, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:   Strong winds.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the risk of a few intense thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 100%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% /  the rest of South IL ~ 100%  /  West KY ~ 90%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° /  South IL 72° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 74° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 25 to 45 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset:  7:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain ending west to east. Windy and colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 70%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the night.  Decreasing coverage overnight.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° /  South IL 40° to 45° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° /  West KY 40° to 45° /  NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the:   South southwest to west 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.  A few storms could be severe during the evening hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 6:15 AM
Moonset: 5:46 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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March 31, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°  /  SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 53° to 56°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°  /  West KY 54° to 58° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: West 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset:  7:17 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° /  SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° /  South IL 34° to 38° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° /  West KY 34° to 38° /  NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the:  West northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:42 AM
Moonset: 6:52 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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April 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:   Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60°  /  SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° /  South IL 54° to 56°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58°  /  West KY 54° to 58° /  NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: West 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset:  7:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: A chance of a late night light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° /  SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° /  South IL 34° to 36° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° /  West KY 34° to 38° /  NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the:  Variable 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:07 AM
Moonset: 7:55 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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April 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:   Mostly cloudy.  A chance of mainly morning light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°  /  SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 56° to 58°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°  /  West KY 56° to 60° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset:  7:19 PM
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Saturday  night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.   A slight chance of a light shower during the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° /  SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° /  South IL 34° to 36° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° /  West KY 34° to 38° /  NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the:  East 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:32 AM
Moonset: 8:57 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

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Today through March 31st:

The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for Wednesday’s severe weather potential.

Here is the link to the live severe weather blog.  CLICK HERE.

A few thunderstorms could become severe Wednesday.  The time-frame of concern would most likely be late morning into the evening hours.  Damaging wind is the primary concern.  A secondary concern would be sort-lived tornadoes.

There remain questions about whether or not our region’s atmosphere will be unstable enough for severe thunderstorms.   Closely monitor updated forecasts.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

No major weather concerns today.  For most of the region, it will be milder than yesterday.  Our far northeast counties might remain a bit cooler than the rest of the area.

Notice that on this temperature graphic

Gusty southerly winds today.

Those gusty winds are going to linger into Thursday.

As a matter of fact, non-thunderstorm gradient winds may gust above 45 mph Wednesday.   Gradient winds are caused by falling and rising barometric pressure.

Our next big weather system will arrive late tonight into Wednesday night.

A developing area of low pressure will skirt to our north over the next 36 hours.  This will drag a cold front across our region from west to east.

You can see that low on this weather map.  The red L is the area of low pressure.

Showers and thunderstorms will be the end result.  Some of the rain could be locally heavy and a few storms could be severe.

Rain totals of 0.7″ to 1.4″ are likely area-wide.  Thunderstorms can produce locally higher totals.

Rain chances will ramp up late tonight over southeast Missouri.  A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from western Missouri and Arkansas.

Tonight’s  storms are likely to remain below severe levels in my forecast area.  There is a chance of severe storms further west later today and tonight.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up area-wide tomorrow into tomorrow night.

That solid line of showers and thunderstorms will push west to east across our region.

There remain questions about how unstable the atmosphere will become tomorrow.  There may very well be pockets of sunshine that will help heat up the atmosphere.  This is especially true across Kentucky and Tennessee.

Further west, clouds may be thicker as the showers and thunderstorms advance eastward.

Wind shear will be very strong tomorrow.  Wind shear is the change of wind direction and speed with height.  There will be no lack of wind shear with this system.  Typical for this time of the year.  Plenty of jet stream energy.

The biggest question, for the threat of severe weather, will be dew points.  Remember, one ingredient in severe weather are dew points (moisture).

Dew point is a measure of moisture.  In this case, a measure of moisture at the ground level.

Typically, for severe weather, I look for dew point readings in the upper 50s and 60s.

Model guidance indicates a sliver of 60 degree dew points in our region.

I took a snapshot from two models that will show that.  This would be moving west to east (so this is just showing you the sliver of 60 dew points over the center portion of our region).

First, let me show you current dew points.  A wide area of 60s well to our south.

Now, let’s look at the model forecast for tomorrow’s dew points.

Two models.  A sliver of 60 degree dew points.

The higher numbers are shunted off well to our south.

You can also see the moisture being cut off on this animation from the Hrrr model guidance.

Notice the widespread 60+ dew points surge northward and then become cut off as the day wears on (Wednesday).

That is because of the widespread showers and thunderstorms south of our region.  This raises questions about our severe weather threat.  Lower dew points would lower our severe threat.  Something to monitor moving forward.

Models are showing an almost north to south line of thunderstorms (QLCS is what we call this line of storms).

This raises questions about moisture transport northward.  Will the storms to our south cut off the better moisture flowing into our local area.  That is a possibility.  If that happens, then the risk of severe weather will be lower.

If the line was a bit more southwest to northeast then I would be more concerned with damaging wind and tornadoes.  That would allow the storms to tap into better moisture and enhanced wind fields.

This is around 3 PM Wednesday future-cast radar.  What radar might look like.  See other future-cast radars further down in the blog.

Bottom  Line:

Strong and gusty gradient winds Wednesday.  Wind gusts could top 40 mph.  Those are non-thunderstorm winds.

A line of thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain, will sweep across the region Wednesday.  See the future-cast radars.

Some of these thunderstorms will produce strong and gusty winds, as well.  Some wind damage will be possible with the line of thunderstorms.

If line segments or bowing develops, along the line of storms, then quick spin-up tornadoes will be possible.  Typically, these type of tornadoes only last a few minutes.  They can cause damage.  Like all tornadoes.

The best advice is to stay weather aware Wednesday.  Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app.  Monitor updated forecast information.

I will start the severe weather blog and keep it running through the event.

The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for Wednesday’s severe weather potential.

Here is the link to the live severe weather blog.  CLICK HERE.

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Thursday into Sunday

Some clouds will linger Thursday.  Gusty winds, as well.  Cooler temperatures.

If the wind subsides, then frost or a light freeze will be possible Thursday night/Friday morning.

A chance of light showers Friday night into Saturday.  Rain totals, during that period of time, will be 0.10″ or less.  Not much.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers March 29th through April 4th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 5th through April 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  66 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers April 12th through April 25th

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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