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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Storms could be severe Wednesday late morning into the evening hours. There remain questions about instability in our region. It is possible that unstable air remains to our south. Monitor updates. The primary concern will be damaging wind and short-lived tornadoes.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday. A few locations could have water issues. Widespread flooding is not forecast.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° / South IL 50° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:11 AM
Moonset: 3:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 29, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 7:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of mainly late night showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (coverage will be highest over Missouri)
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:45 AM
Moonset: 4:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 30, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Windy. Monitor the risk of a few intense thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain ending west to east. Windy and colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the night. Decreasing coverage overnight.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: South southwest to west 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could be severe during the evening hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 6:15 AM
Moonset: 5:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 31, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: West 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:42 AM
Moonset: 6:52 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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April 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: West 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 7:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a late night light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: Variable 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:07 AM
Moonset: 7:55 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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April 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: East 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 7:32 AM
Moonset: 8:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
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Today through March 31st: A few thunderstorms could become severe Wednesday. The time-frame of concern would most likely be late morning into the evening hours. Damaging wind is the primary concern. A secondary concern would be sort-lived tornadoes.
There remain questions about whether or not our region’s atmosphere will be unstable enough for severe thunderstorms. The risk appears higher further south along the Gulf of Mexico.
With that said, if some CAPE (unstable air) does develop then severe weather would be a concern. CAPE is basically energy that storms can tap into.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warming trend. Windy conditions into Thursday.
- Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
- Another chance of frost Thursday night.
- Monitor light rain chances Friday night into Saturday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
A fairly quiet weather day is on tap for the region.
We will have some clouds and gusty winds. Cool temperatures, but nothing too extreme.
Temperatures will begin to warm Tuesday and it will feel a bit more like spring. Gusty winds, again.
Clouds will thicken Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of our next rain event.
A few showers and thunderstorms will push into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois late Tuesday night. These showers and thunderstorms will be well ahead of the incoming cold front (which won’t arrive until Wednesday/Wednesday night).
The Tuesday night showers/thunderstorms will remain below severe levels.
A strong cold front will push into the region Wednesday.
Barometric pressure will be falling Wednesday. Isobars (equal lines of pressure) will tighten. The end result of that will be strong and gusty winds.
See the black lines on this graphic? Those are isobars. When these are closely packed together, winds are strong and gusty.
The red L in Iowa is the area of low pressure. The green represents precipitation. This is Wednesday mornings weather-map.
Non-thunderstorm winds could top 35 mph Wednesday.
An area of low pressure will strengthen and move northeast into the Missouri Valley by late Wednesday morning and afternoon.
This strengthening low will drag a cold front into our region.
There will be no shortage of lift with this system. The Gulf of Mexico will be wide open. Moisture will stream northward into our area.
The end result will be widespread showers and thunderstorms.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will push west to east across the region Wednesday/Wednesday evening. It won’t rain all day. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main line and then the a solid band of precipitation right along the cold front.
See the future-cast radars below.
PWAT values will be quite high ahead of the front. Remember, PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmospheric column. Higher PWAT numbers equal heavier rain totals.
This is the NAM model animation of PWAT values. Notice the purple? Those are the highest PWAT values right ahead of the cold front.
Locally heavy rain will be possible. Rain totals of 0.7″ to 1.4″ are likely area-wide. Locally higher totals possible.
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Rain totals forecast from the WPC/NOAA.
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Severe Weather Wednesday?
The threat of severe weather remains questionable. The primary missing ingredient will be CAPE. CAPE is a measure of instability and lift in the atmosphere.
We won’t have severe weather without CAPE.
As is typical for this time of the year, we will have plenty of wind shear and not a lot of CAPE.
We call this a low CAPE/high shear event. Typical for winter and early spring.
Wind shear is the turning of wind direction and speed with height. Wind shear is one ingredient for severe thunderstorms. CAPE is another.
If CAPE develops Wednesday, then damaging thunderstorm winds will be a concern. There will be some spin in the atmosphere, as well. Thus, I can’t rule out a tornado.
The severe weather risk is highly conditional. Conditional meaning we will need CAPE for severe thunderstorms to develop.
Looking at an analog graphic (comparing this event with past events).
The signal for severe weather is highest across Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama.
Monitor updates as we move through the next 48 to 72 hours. The time-frame of concern will be late morning into the evening hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east Wednesday night.
It will turn colder Wednesday night and Thursday. Clouds may linger, as well.
I can’t rule out frost Thursday night. Not sure we dip below freezing, but 30s are a good bet by Friday morning.
Another weak system will push into the region Friday night and Saturday. Some light showers will be possible.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 28th through April 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 4th through April 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers April 8th through April 21st
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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