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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Friday night and Saturday morning and again Saturday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. Snow is likely Friday and Friday night. Snow totals of 1/2″ to 2″ will be possible.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 28° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 36° to 38° / NW TN 36° to 38°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:45 AM
Moonset: 1:13 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
A wide range of temperatures Friday. As you can see on this graphic. Temperatures will fall as the cold front pushes east/southeast.
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or rain/snow showers over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois from mid-morning into the evening hours. Rain may hold off over Kentucky/Tennessee until late in the day or evening. Temperatures will fall as the front sweeps eastward across the region. Some locations will have their high temperatures early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
This graphic gives you a general idea of the probability of precipitation. High chances north/northwest. Lower chances south/southeast. Sorry for the cutoff on the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. Just draw those colors out to the southwest.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over the northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Scattered elsewhere. Again, the precipitation may hold off until late in the day of Kentucky/Tennessee.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° / West KY 46° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Some light snow accumulation possible over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow likely. Rain changing to snow. Cold. Windy, at times. Bitterly cold wind chill values. A dusting to two inches of snow possible. Light accumulation. Nuisance snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous. Ending west to east overnight.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° / SE MO 13° to 16° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 13° to 16° / South IL 14° to 16° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 14° to 18°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 11:31 AM
Moonset: 2:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° / South IL 32° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There may be black ice or icy roads early in the morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Cold temperatures.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° / SE MO 20° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 22° / South IL 20° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° / West KY 22° to 24° / NW TN 22° to 24°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 3:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 7:01 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 38°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:21 PM
Moonset: 4:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of a light shower after 4 PM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated late in the day. Low chance.
Timing of the rain: After 4 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 60° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:22 PM
Moonset: 5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:26 PM
Moonset: 6:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 15th: No severe weather concerns.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild today.
- Rain and snow likely Friday and Friday night. Some light accumulation possible. A dusting to two inches.
- Bitterly cold Friday night/Saturday morning.
- Warming trend Sunday into next week.
- Low-end chance of a light shower Monday.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Today
A nice day ahead for the region. Mild temperatures with no weather concerns.
Friday and Saturday.
A brief sharp cold snap will impact the region.
The weather forecast for Friday and Saturday has not changed.
The cold air is a lock. A strong cold front will sweep from northwest to southeast across the region Friday during the day and evening.
Bitterly cold air will follow the front. Gusty winds, as well.
High temperatures may be reached early in the day across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the front continues to push eastward, temperatures will fall.
Here is the NAM model temperature forecast as the cold front sweeps across the region.
Western view
The rest of the area.
Notice that it is mild ahead of the cold front and cold behind it.
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Wind chill values by Saturday morning will likely be in the 0 to 10 above range. Brrr.
Here is the 10 AM wind chill chart from the NAM model.
It will be bitterly cold Friday night into Saturday morning. Gusty winds combined with cold temperatures. A good morning to stay inside.
Precipitation will develop along and behind the cold front Friday morning over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and then spreading eastward through the afternoon and evening hours.
Portions of western Kentucky will likely remain dry through most of the day. That would likely be east of LBL (or it will be late afternoon before precipitation arrives there).
There will be precipitation with this event. Most likely rain changing to snow. The bulk of the precipitation will be behind the cold front. Thus, in the colder air.
Strong March sun angle, warm road temperatures, and warm ground conditions will make this a tricky forecast. Will the snow accumulate?
The bulk of the snow will be Friday late morning into afternoon over Missouri and Illinois. It will shift into Kentucky and Tennessee Friday evening and Friday night.
See the future-cast radars further down in the blow (scroll down).
The snow will accumulate faster during the evening and overnight hours. We lose the high sun angle and temperatures will cool faster, as well. Thus, it is easier for the snow to accumulate.
Snow totals of a dusting to 2″ will be possible. Some data shows higher totals east of LBL in our far southeast counties. I will keep an eye on that area. Either way, light snow accumulation. A nuisance event.
This event comes in two waves. The Missouri and Illinois wave begins late morning into afternoon. Then, there could even be a lull. Then, a second piece of energy expands the snow during the late afternoon into Friday night.
You can see that here.
12 PM future-cast radar
6 PM Friday (what radar might look like)
8 PM Friday
Scroll further down for additional future-cast radars.
It is a tough call on road conditions. Road temperatures will be warm to begin with and cool with time.
I definitely can’t rule out some travel issues.
For planning purposes, you can plan on a solid shot of cold air Friday into the Saturday night.
I would plan on at some snow Friday into Friday night.
If you have travel plans then keep the above in mind. There may be some issues.
There may also be black ice Friday night.
Black ice is moisture left over from precipitation that refreezes on surfaces.
Saturday will be cold. The bulk of the region will likely remain in the 30s. Well below average temperatures.
Dry conditions Saturday through Sunday night.
Another weak system will pass through the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Perhaps a few light showers.
The GFS shows that system. It is more of a southern system vs north.
No severe thunderstorms or tornadoes in the forecast through next Thursday. That is the good news.
I am watching a system late next week. Way too soon to know the impacts of it.
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Don’t forget to push your clocks forward Saturday night/Sunday morning.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These four graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 10th through March 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 17th through March 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 22nd to March 4th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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