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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Saturday night into Sunday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am keeping an eye on Sunday. I can’t rule out intense thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler over some counties. Wide range of temperatures north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 5:51 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:14 AM
Moonset: 7:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 5:52 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° / SE MO 48° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 50° / South IL 48° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:41 AM
Moonset: 8:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 5:53 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Increasing coverage overnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 56° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 9:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 5:54 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 50° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 8:32 AM
Moonset: 10:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy a slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 33° to 36° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Rain should be ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:00 AM
Moonset: 11:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 33° to 36° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:30 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:05 AM
Moonset: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 5th: Monitor updates. A few storms could be intense Sunday.
Right now the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a portion of our region. This could and likely will be expanded further northeast. Monitor updates.
The primary concern will likely be late afternoon and night.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Slightly cooler today.
- Mild Friday and Saturday.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
A wide range of temperatures today. A front passed through the area last night.
Cooler north. Warmer south.
Here are the antedated highs for today. You can see the difference north to south.
Portions of the region hit 80 degrees yesterday! How about that.
Dry conditions are likely today through Saturday afternoon.
Warmer tomorrow and Saturday, as well. At one point Saturday appeared wet. With each passing day, the probability of precipitation has been lowered. That is the good news.
The bad news is that rain will return Saturday night and continue into Monday.
Peak rain chances will be Saturday night into Sunday night.
Locally heavy rain will be possible. I am expecting a widespread 0.8 to 1.6″ of rain. Then, locally higher totals will be possible, as well.
Thunderstorms will be possible.
Thunderstorms will likely remain below severe levels Saturday night. I am watching Sunday and Sunday night. A few storms could be intense during this time-frame.
Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area that does include portions of southeast Missouri. They have left open the possibility of expanding the outlook into the rest of our area.
Confidence in severe weather is low. I will continue to monitor trends in the guidance and update as necessary. Monitor updates moving forward.
NOAA/WPC rain totals through next Wednesday morning. Locally higher totals are possible.
They did lower totals just a tad.
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Let’s look at the ensembles. GFS and EC models.
GFS ensemble mean through next Tuesday morning.
EC ensemble mean through next Tuesday morning.
The ensembles agree on the placement of the heavier rain totals. Close to the Ohio River.
You can expect an inch or more of rain from Saturday night into the early next week. Several waves of precipitation.
The bulk of which will fall Saturday night into Sunday night.
I am watching mid-March for a potential cold blast.
The BAM outlook shows that nicely. Well below normal temperatures.
The GFS has a strong blast of cold air. It has a cold bias. Take these exact numbers with a grain of salt.
Take the general idea that cold air may return (briefly).
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Scroll to the bottom of the blog for the March through August monthly outlooks.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 3rd through March 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 10th through March 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 15th to March 28th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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ZoomRadar
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