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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Saturday into Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am keeping an eye on Sunday. I can’t rule out intense thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates in the event heavy rain develops this weekend and next week. For now, confidence in flooding is low.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 5:50 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:12 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 5:50 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 40° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 42° / South IL 40° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 AM
Moonset: 5:56 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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March 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 5:51 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° / West KY 38° to 40° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:14 AM
Moonset: 7:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 5:52 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 48° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 50° / South IL 48° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:41 AM
Moonset: 8:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 5:53 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 9:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest to west 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 5:54 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 8:32 AM
Moonset: 10:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:00 AM
Moonset: 11:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 5th: Monitor updates. A few storms could be intense Sunday.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Quiet into Friday.
- Warmer. Meteorological spring begins today.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up over the upcoming weekend.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
A nice day on tap for the region. Mild temperatures to greet us for the first day of meteorological spring.
Meteorologists measure the seasons a bit differently than everyone else. We consider spring to be March, April, and May.
You can expect these mild temperatures to last into the weekend. Occasionally, we will have some clouds. The good news is that dry conditions are anticipated through Friday night.
Shower chances will return this weekend.
I lowered rain chances Saturday into the scattered category. The system has slowed down just a tad.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase Saturday night into next week.
The primary concern is going to be locally heavy rain. With several systems forecast to push across the region, the chance of flooding will be a concern.
Several inches of rain will likely fall from Saturday into the following week.
NOAA/WPC rain totals through next Tuesday morning. Locally higher totals are possible.
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Let’s look at the ensembles. GFS and EC models.
GFS ensemble mean through next Tuesday morning.
EC ensemble mean through next Tuesday morning.
The general idea is that it will be wet this coming weekend. We will have to see if some locally heavy rain develops.
I will also keep an eye on the risk of thunderstorms.
Some of the analogs indicate at least a risk of intense thunderstorms. This would primarily be Sunday. Overall confidence in severe weather is low. I will need to continue to monitor trends in the guidance.
At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined a severe weather risk zone. They are also monitoring trends in the guidance.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 1st through March 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 8th through March 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 15th to March 28th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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