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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Monday into Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. I will keep an eye on Monday into Tuesday.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible Monday into Thursday of next week. Monitor updates. Flooding is possible.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Not at this time. I will monitor the middle and end of next week.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Wintry precipitation will be possible Wednesday into Thursday of next week. Monitor updates. It is still too early for certainties.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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February 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 38° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 40° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 28° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 7:50 PM
Moonset: 8:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 40° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 5:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 23° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° / West KY 26° to 30° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 55° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 56° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:00 PM
Moonset: 8:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 5:42 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 11:09 PM
Moonset: 9:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 22, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early. Rain ending.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 28° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° / West KY 28° to 30° / NW TN 28° to 30°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise:
Moonset: 9:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 23, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain or a wintry mix. A wide range of temperatures from north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 36° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 42° / South IL 38° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 5:44 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 28° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° / West KY 28° to 30° / NW TN 28° to 30°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 12:19 AM
Moonset: 10:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through February 24th: At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Active weather pattern into next week.
- Dry today through Sunday night.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up Monday into the middle of next week.
- Locally heavy precipitation possible next week.
- Monitoring the risk of a wintry mix next Wednesday and Thursday.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Well, we say goodbye to one storm system and hello to several more.
Yesterday brought a widespread two to four inches of rain to the region. I figured someone might end up with two to three inches but did not see the totals being that high over that large of a region. Impressive.
Here were the radar estimated rain totals from Thursday’s event. Double click images to enlarge them.
The reason for the heavier rain totals was that the area of low pressure tracked further south. This also helped keep our severe weather risk lower. All in all, we were fortunate with that system.
You can see that low as it moved into the Missouri Bootheel yesterday afternoon. It then moved northeast into western Kentucky.
At one point, this low was forecast to move well to our north. With time, however, it trended further and further south. Had it been much further south then our northern counties would have experienced snow and ice. Most of that, fortunately, stayed to our north. Portions of central and northern Missouri and central and northern Illinois picked up four to eight inches of wind driven snow.
Numerous tornadoes were reported to our south/southeast. Some of them caused considerable damage.
Dry weather today into Sunday. You will notice a sharp temperature drop today compared to the warm air yesterday and the day before. This cold air arrives with an area of high pressure building in from the north.
Temperatures will slowly moderate over the next 24 to 48 hours. Climbing into the 50s by Sunday. Perhaps near 60 in some counties.
A very active storm track is forecast for next week.
This is not going to be an easy forecast and there will absolutely be forecast adjustments moving forward. Let me try and break it down.
A frontal boundary is forecast to stall across our region next Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
I am certain that showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast Monday and Tuesday. At times, that precipitation will be widespread and locally heavy.
We do not need additional rain on top of what we just had. This is going to cause flooding concerns. I suspect flood watches may have to be issued if model data trends towards heavy rain (MON/TUE).
Severe thunderstorms do not appear to be in the cards Monday or Tuesday. As always, I will keep a close eye on it.
There will be a WIDE range of temperatures north of the front vs south of the front.
For example, here is what the GFS temperature forecast is showing for next Tuesday. This is not unlike several of our recent precipitation events. We have experienced several events with temperatures in the 30s and 40s over my northern forecast counties and 50s and 60s over my southern forecast counties.
As always, this will make for a tricky forecast when it comes to precipitation type. Especially as we move into Wednesday and Thursday.
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Rain totals Monday and Tuesday could exceed an inch in some counties.
Here is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast through next Friday. Check out some of those totals to our south. Concerning for rivers.
Some of that Tennessee Valley water does flow northward into our water basins, as well. Geography happens to work that way.
This does not bold well for our lakes and rivers. I don’t like to enter spring with super-saturated ground conditions. This will be something that will need to be monitored as we move through the coming weeks and months.
As the front stalls of our region, there will be waves of low pressure rippling along it. Each wave will bring an new round of precipitation.
The precipitation type becomes a concern as we move into Tuesday night through Thursday.
There will be plenty of cold air to our north. If the front sags far enough south then we can expect freezing rain, sleet, and snow to develop across our region towards the middle of next week.
As always, an accurate winter storm forecast is usually made 24 to 48 hours in advance of the system. We can tell you generics before then.
I can tell you there is the potential of a winter weather event next week. It is too soon, however, for exact details from one area to the next.
Let me show you the GFS ensembles.
What are ensembles?
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The GFS shows several waves of precipitation next week.
Here is wave one. It has great agreement among all the ensembles members. Remember, the more squares that match the greater the confidence in the forecast.
Green is rain. Yellow is heavier rain.
Every ensemble members shows rain Monday into Tuesday. Locally heavy rain.
Then, let’s move into Wednesday and Thursday.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Purple and red are sleet and freezing rain. This is Wednesday evening.
You can see the potential of a second wave of low pressure moving along the front. That would mean more precipitation. What type? Well, that is still a question.
And Thursday
Just know that we may have to deal with winter weather next week and monitor updates.
Stay tuned.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 17tth through February 24th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers February 25th through March 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 4th to March 17th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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ZoomRadar
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