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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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The LIVE severe weather blog has been activated. You can view that at this link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/live-severe-weather-blog-february-17-2022/
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible today. I am monitoring next Monday night and Tuesday for lightning, as well.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could be severe today. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that will be highly dependent on how much instability develops.
The LIVE severe weather blog has been activated. You can view that at this link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/live-severe-weather-blog-february-17-2022/
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain will be possible today. A few ditches and streams could flood. Field flooding, as well. Avoid flooded roadways.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Thursday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. A light wintry mix is possible over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois later this afternoon. Any accumulation would be light.
I am closely monitoring next Wednesday and Thursday. Some data indicates there may be enough cold air in our region for a wintry mixture of precipitation. Still plenty of time to monitor that portion of the forecast.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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February 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
The LIVE severe weather blog has been activated. You can view that at this link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/live-severe-weather-blog-february-17-2022/
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Thursday Forecast: A WIDE range of temperatures today. Windy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. A few storms could be severe. Falling temperatures behind the cold front. The rain may mix with sleet or snow over northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois during the late afternoon hours. Little or no accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 38° to 55° WIDE range from north to south / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 60° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South 25 to 45 mph. Gusty. Wind becoming west northwest behind the cold front.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 55° wide range
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong winds. A few storms could produce wind damage and even a short-lived tornado.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 5:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Clearing. A chance of evening rain or wintry mix/snow showers. Precipitation ending. Turning colder. Watch for standing water that might freeze over as temperatures rapidly fall behind the front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24° / SE MO 16° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 16° to 20° / South IL 15° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° / West KY 20° to 22° / NW TN 22° to 24°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early. Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 PM
Moonset: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 38° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 40° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 7:50 PM
Moonset: 8:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 5:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 26° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:00 PM
Moonset: 8:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of an afternoon shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 5:42 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Rain likely. Thunderstorms are possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 11:09 PM
Moonset: 9:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through February 22nd The LIVE severe weather blog has been activated. You can view that at this link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/live-severe-weather-blog-february-17-2022/
Thunderstorms could become severe later this morning and afternoon across portions of our region. The risk is highest from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. The further south you travel, the higher the risk of experiencing severe weather.
The risk is lower as you move north through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. A secondary concern will be tornadoes. The tornado risk is highly conditional on surface based CAPE developing. CAPE is basically energy that storms tap into. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Strong gradient winds today. Winds could top 50 mph.
- Locally heavy rain today. Avoid flooded roadways.
- Severe weather risk today will include damaging wind and possibly a tornado.
- Much colder air pushes into the region later this afternoon and evening.
- Additional precipitation chances next week.
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Weather advice:
The LIVE severe weather blog has been activated. You can view that at this link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/live-severe-weather-blog-february-17-2022/
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
A busy 12 to 24 hours of weather ahead of us.
Let’s break it down.
Gusty winds today.
We will have strong and gusty gradient winds today. Gradient winds are caused by rapidly falling and rising barometric pressure. Your home barometer will be falling today.
Low pressure will push into our region this afternoon and depart this evening. This is what will cause the pressure change.
Gradient winds are caused by these changes in pressure.
Widespread 15 to 30 mph winds are anticipated today with occasional gusts into the 40 to 50 mph range (perhaps isolated higher numbers).
These gradient winds could bring down tree limbs. Power outages can’t be ruled out, as well.
The winds will begin to subside tonight.
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Locally heavy rain today.
We are waking up to widespread rain. Showers and thunderstorms cover much of the radar.
Radar at 7 AM showed this. Quite a big of rain in the region. Some thunderstorms, as well.
Rain will continue on and off throughout today.
Some of the rain will be heavy. If thunderstorms train over the same area then some areas could easily receive two to three inches of rain.
This heavy rain could cause ditches to overflow and creeks/streams to rapidly rise. Some flood warnings are certainly possible.
Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Rain will taper off late this afternoon and evening. Ending this evening/tonight.
The rain may briefly change to a wintry mix over our northern counties. Little or no accumulation.
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The risk of severe thunderstorms today.
The LIVE severe weather blog has been activated. You can view that at this link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/live-severe-weather-blog-february-17-2022/
The biggest concern with this system has been the potential of severe thunderstorms.
This has been a difficult system to forecast. We are right on the edge of better instability to our south and less instability to our north.
Instability is necessary when forecasting severe thunderstorms.
The risk of severe weather will be greater as you travel southward today. The risk will be lower as you travel northward.
At this time, it appears the area of low pressure is going to end up tracking fairly far south compared to what models had been showing the last four or five days. This is one reason that I have been hesitant to pound the severe weather drums. Not until confidence increased on the final outcome.
The highest risk of severe weather is going to run from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The risk may be a tad higher from the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.
Areas to the north could also see severe weather, but the risk appears lower.
The primary concern will be lightning and damaging wind gusts.
Wind shear with this system is near the top of the charts. Wind shear is the change of wind direction and speed as you move up into the atmosphere.
There is no lack of wind shear with this event.
What is lacking is CAPE. CAPE is basically energy that thunderstorms tap into to become severe.
This is a low CAPE set-up. That is typical for February. High shear and low CAPE.
It does not take much CAPE to cause severe thunderstorms during the winter months. The shears makes up for the lack of CAPE. It does, however, take some CAPE.
I will be monitoring CAPE throughout today.
Plan on some severe thunderstorm warnings later today/this afternoon. I can’t rule out tornado warnings, as well.
Any thunderstorms that can become surface based could spin. Thus, a tornado is certainly not out of the questions.
Storms will be moving east/northeast in excess of 50 mph. Fast moving storms. This will not give you a lot of time to seek shelter if a tornado were to develop.
Know your families safety plan in the event severe weather develops.
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Friday into Sunday night.
Dry conditions are anticipated Friday through Sunday. Cold Friday but then a slow moderation in the temperature department as we move through the weekend.
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Active next week.
Guidance indicates a train of storm systems over the next 10 to 14 days.
Rain is likely to redevelop in the region Monday and Monday night. Becoming widespread, at times. This rain will continue into Tuesday.
I am watching another storm system next Wednesday and Thursday. This is in the long range portion of the forecast and confidence in that system developing is low. For now, at least.
There may be enough cold air for the system Wednesday and Thursday to be a wintry mix. Again, this is in the long range and confidence in the details is not great.
Monitor updates moving forward.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 16tth through February 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers February 24th through March 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 1st to March 14th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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