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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. A few storms could be locally strong Thursday. There remain significant questions about the threat of severe thunderstorms. A lot of guidance indicates the severe weather risk will be greater south of my forecast counties. It is close enough to warrant our attention. I will have a better handle on the severe weather risk in tomorrow’s update.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain will be possible Thursday.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Thursday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Rain may end as a wintry mix Thursday. Monitor updates.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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February 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° / West KY 60° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 5:35 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 42° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:37 PM
Moonset: 6:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Breezy. A chance of mainly afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated during the afternoon
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 5:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the radars
Moonrise: 5:41 PM
Moonset: 7:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Showers and thunderstorms. Turning colder. Rain may mix with snow over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A few storms could be intense. A wide temperature difference from northwest to southeast.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 60° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South 20 to 35 mph. Gusty. Wind becoming west northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong winds. Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms (confidence in that is low).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 5:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Clearing. A chance of rain or snow showers. Precipitation ending. Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 22° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 15° to 20° / South IL 15° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° / West KY 20° to 22° / NW TN 20° to 22°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early. Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 PM
Moonset: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 38° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 40° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 7:50 PM
Moonset: 8:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 5:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:00 PM
Moonset: 8:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
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Today through February 20th I am watching a strong cold front Thursday. Some of the thunderstorms could be intense. Whether we have severe weather is still a question. It will be worth monitoring updates. The highest severe weather risk may remain south of my forecast counties, but it is going to be close.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Calm weather today through most of Wednesday.
- Showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.
- Gusty winds Tuesday into Thursday.
- Rain may end as snow showers Thursday afternoon and night. Little or no accumulation.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Mild and breezy weather today into Wednesday afternoon.
No serious weather concerns.
Clouds will increase over the next 24 to 48 hours. That will be ahead of our next strong cold front.
A few showers could develop Wednesday afternoon. That would primarily be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Widespread rain will hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday.
Strong Cold Front
A strong cold front will advance across the region Wednesday night and Thursday. We have been watching this system for about ten days now.
This is going to be a strong cold front with rapidly falling temperatures behind it. Let me show you the GFS model and how it handles temperatures. Look at that temperature gradient. Impressive.
GFS model. Thursday afternoon.
NAM model. Thursday afternoon.
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A variety of weather will be associated with this cold front.
As mentioned above, it will be quite mild ahead of the front. There is some discussion that temperatures could even rise into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the front. Especially over Kentucky and Tennessee. I went middle of the road, but don’t be surprised if temperatures are a bit warmer.
Another feature of this system will be strong and gusty winds. Winds today and Wednesday will likely be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Winds Wednesday night into Thursday night will likely be in the 30 to 40 mph range. There could even be higher gusts. Windy, to say the least.
These will be gradient winds. Gradient winds are caused by rapidly falling and rising barometric pressure.
The front will deliver widespread precipitation. Precipitation coverage will ramp up Wednesday night and become widespread.
Locally heavy rain will be possible with this system. Many locations will top an inch of rain and a few spots could top two inches.
The system will also have the potential of producing thunderstorms.
One of the main questions, in my mind, over the past week has been the threat of severe thunderstorms. I do not like forecasting severe thunderstorms a week in advance. I like to ramp up and not down. Meaning, I don’t want to forecast severe storms well in advance and then they not materialize. I would prefer to slowly ramp up the verbage.
Model guidance continues to show the greatest potential of severe thunderstorms to our south. With that said, the NAM model in particular is quite bullish on the idea of severe thunderstorms across much of the area.
It could be correct, but at the same time there is not a lot of agreement with the other model guidance concerning the threat.
If you have read my discussions, over the years, then you will know that winter time severe weather events typically require dew points in the upper 50s to 60s.
Model guidance does show us reaching those numbers.
The NAM model is most bullish with dew points. It is showing widespread upper 50s to lower 60s.
The NWS blend of models keeps the higher dew points just south of our area. It is close.
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IF the higher dew points do push into our area, then severe weather will likely occur. That would include damaging wind gusts and even the risk of short-lived tornadoes. We call those QLCS tornadoes. They are often embedded within a line of thunderstorms and typically only last a few minutes. Either way, a tornado is a tornado. They can cause quite a bit of damage if they hit something.
The severe weather risk will certainly need to be monitored with this system.
Wind fields are very strong. Wind shear is very strong. Instability is meager (CAPE numbers are quite low).
Monitor updates regarding the risk of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has our region in a marginal and slight risk of severe weather (for Thursday).
Here is their outlook graphic.
Black outline represents the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service forecast area.
Light green is general non-severe thunderstorms. Dark green is a level one out of five severe risk. Yellow is a level two out of five severe weather risk. Five being the highest number possible.
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Much colder air will push into the region Thursday afternoon and night. Windy conditions will make it feel even colder.
Dry weather Friday into Sunday.
A fast moving weak system should bring some clouds Sunday night or Monday. Maybe a light shower. For now, this does not look to be a big deal.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 15tth through February 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers February 22nd through February 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 1st to March 14th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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