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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible next Thursday and Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could be intense next Thursday and Friday. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain will be possible next Thursday and Friday.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. A few snow showers are possible Friday night/Saturday and again Sunday. Any accumulation would be light. I am watching Sunday’s system in case it comes in a bit stronger.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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February 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 44° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds from the nort.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 32° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 32° to 35° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:09 PM
Moonset: 2:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: West southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 5:31 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light shower or flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 28° / SE MO 22° to 24° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 22° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 24° to 26° / NW TN 26° to 28°
Winds will be from the: West southwest becoming west northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:51 PM
Moonset: 3:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of morning flurries (mainly over KY)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before noon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 5:32 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Clearing.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 16° to 18° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 13° to 16° / South IL 14° to 18° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 16° to 18°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 18°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:40 PM
Moonset: 4:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 36° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 5:33 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of an evening snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 24° / South IL 20° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° / West KY 22° to 24° / NW TN 22° to 24°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:35 PM
Moonset: 5:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 44° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 5:34 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 22° to 24° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 24° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 5:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 50° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 5:35 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:37 PM
Moonset: 6:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through February 20th I am watching a strong cold front next Thursday into Friday. I will need to fine-tune the timing of the front. There could be thunderstorms with this system. Depending on the storm track, some of the thunderstorms could be intense. Monitor updates moving forward.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild today and tomorrow.
- A strong cold front arrives Friday and Friday night.
- Colder for the weekend.
- A strong cold front next week. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
A nice day is on tap for the region. Mild temperatures. Not too bad for the middle of February.
Our next cold front arrives Friday. This front will push across the region with some clouds and perhaps some scattered rain showers. The chance of rain will be higher over our northern counties. Even there, the rain will be scattered.
Colder air pushes into the region Friday night and that will last into Monday.
A few snow showers or snow flurries will be possible Friday night and Saturday and then again Sunday. Any accumulation will be light. An inch or less.
A second cold front pushes through the region Sunday. Again, a couple of snow showers or flurries will be possible with it.
Here is what the NAM shows for the Sunday system. Snow showers will be possible. If it comes in a bit stronger then some locations could have a light dusting of snow.
This would be moving southeast through the day.
Monday and Tuesday will be dry.
Our next storm system arrives towards the middle of next week. The bulk of the rain will likely arrive Thursday, but I can’t rule out a few showers as early as Wednesday and Wednesday night. I will need to fine-tune the exact timing of the showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rain will be possible with this system. I will need to monitor the risk of a few intense thunderstorms. It is a bit early for certainties on that portion of the forecast.
The area of low pressure is forecast to push to our north. That means we will be in the warm sector of the storm.
Rain totals could exceed one inch with this system.
You can see that warm push of air ahead of the cold front on this map.
You can see the cold air behind it on this map.
Here is the EC model guidance for next Thursday’s cold front. It shows a band of showers and thunderstorms pushing across our region.
Here is the GFS model for next Thursday. You can see the rain (locally heavy) in our region.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 10tth through February 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers February 17th through February 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers February 22nd through March 7th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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