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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.
Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Monday morning.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Watching Friday through Sunday.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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January 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 38° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 18° to 22° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 15° to 20° / South IL 18° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 16° to 20° / West KY 18° to 20° / NW TN 18° to 20°
Winds will be from the: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:06 PM
Moonset: 12:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Becoming partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 26° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:33 PM
Moonset: 1:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:58 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 26° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 26° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 32°
Winds will be from the: West at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:02 PM
Moonset: 2:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: West at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 35° / South IL 30° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35° / West KY 30° to 35° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:35 PM
Moonset: 3:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of snow showers over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: South southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:13 PM
Moonset: 4:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 25° to 30°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 5:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:49 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through January 16th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Cold night ahead.
- Chilly start to the week.
- Monitoring precipitation chances later this week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
We are waking up to cold temperatures.
Here is what the temperatures look like across the region.
That is quite the change from 24 hours ago. Here is the 24-hour temperature change map.
Highs today will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. A chilly day.
Lows tonight will again be cold.
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A slow warming trend will arrive Wednesday into Friday. Expect highs mostly in the 40s Wednesday through Friday.
I continue to monitor a system that could bring some showers to the region Friday and Saturday. Peak rain chances should be Friday night. That is how it looks, for now at least.
Model guidance has not been in agreement on the details of the weekend system. Some show a bit more rain than others. I continue to monitor trends.
It may be cold enough for a rain/snow mix over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. For now, accumulation chances appear small. Again, I will be monitoring trends.
Either way, this does not look like a significant weather event. A faster moving weak system.
Here is what the EC model shows for the weekend system. A bit more snow with it.
It is a bit further south with the track of the low vs the GFS model guidance.
And the GFS is weaker. Not as much precipitation. It is a bit further north with the track of the area of low pressure.
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WPC/NOAA rainfall totals are forecast to be low. Again, whatever does fall should be centered on Friday and Saturday.
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At this time, I am not tracking any major storm systems.
There are hints in the guidance for several cold snaps the last two weeks of January. Long range models, during the winter months, can be quite chaotic. Thus, I don’t put much faith in them. With that said, a lot of signals are pointing towards a few shots of much below normal temperatures and perhaps some wintry precipitation.
I will continue to monitor trends in the guidance.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers January 10th through January 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers January 17th through January 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers January 21st through February 3rd
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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