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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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I am monitoring Wednesday night and Thursday.
First thoughts on snow accumulation.
These numbers will change as confidence increases in the final outcome of this system.
These are my initial thoughts.
Dry air aloft may cut into snow totals. Typically, dry air causes snow to evaporate before reaching the ground. This can mean less snow than the model guidance indicates.
That is one element that I am watching with this event.
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My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.
Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Possible Saturday/Saturday night along a cold front.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. I will keep an eye on Saturday/Saturday night.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Monday morning. Wednesday night into Friday.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Possible. I am watching Wednesday night and Thursday.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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January 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: Northwest becoming south southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 20° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 22° / West KY 20° to 22° / NW TN 20° to 24°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:17 AM
Moonset: 5:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times. Not as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 7:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 42° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: West 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of snow. Some accumulation possible. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly after 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° / SE MO 16° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 20° / South IL 18° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 22° / West KY 18° to 24° / NW TN 20° to 24°
Winds will be from the: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow. Slick road conditions if snow develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 9:49 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of snow. Some accumulation possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 28° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: West 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:53 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of snow showers. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the evening.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 8° to 12° / SE MO 5° to 10° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 5° to 10° / South IL 6° to 12° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 8° to 12° / West KY 8° to 12° / NW TN 10° to 14°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow. Slick road conditions if snow develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 10:22 AM
Moonset: 9:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 24° to 30°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 16° to 18° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 14° to 18° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 15° to 20°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 10:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 10:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through January 10th: I will keep an eye on Saturday/Saturday night. A cold front will push across the region during that time-frame.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- A chilly start to the week.
- Moderating temperatures and then much colder.
- Monitoring snow chances Wednesday night and Thursday.
- Monitoring rain/storm chances over the weekend.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Well, we rang the new year in with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind. In addition to that, widespread heavy rain fell across the region with pockets of three to six inches across portions of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
It made for a long new year’s eve night and day.
Thankfully, that is in the past. We are left with widespread cold temperatures.
Some snow, sleet, and freezing rain fell Sunday morning across the area. Some locations picked up a dusting. I did not see any one inch reports.
I did see some video near Almo, Kentucky that showed about 1/2″ of snow and some sleet mixed it. This briefly caused some slick spots.
We have a couple of items to watch in the week ahead.
We have a chance of snow showers Wednesday night/Thursday. At this time, accumulation totals appear to be on the light side. I will be monitoring trends in the guidance in case the system is stronger than anticipated.
This could be an accumulating snow. Perhaps a dusting to an inch or two. Model guidance is mixed on the idea.
The EC model and Canadian models are most bullish with this winter weather event. Both shows accumulating snow. The GFS is attempting to move in that direction, but still shows no snow accumulating.
The system is about to enter the high resolution time-frame. We will see what those models show as we draw closed to the time-frame in question (Wednesday night and Thursday).
Let’s see what the model shows.
The blend of models show this.
UKMET model (Wednesday night/Thursday)
Canadian model
EC model
GFS model is the odd-man out (for now). Showing very little snow.
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There is a strong snow signal from the ensemble data. Almost all of the ensembles show at least some snow accumulation.
GEFS ensembles. The majority show some snow.
EC ensembles. All but a couple of these show snow.
EC ensemble snow forecast.
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NOAA snow forecast (melted) shows the potential of 1/2″ to 1″ of snow.
Double click images to enlarge it.
Bitterly cold air will push back into the region Wednesday night into Friday. As a matter of fact, the coldest night of the winter, thus far will arrive Thursday night. Lows in the single digits are possible in some counties. Elsewhere, widespread 10 to 15 degree readings are anticipated.
Friday morning lows
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A warming trend begins over the weekend with perhaps some showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. For now, the severe weather risk appears minimal. I will monitor trends. It might be difficult to pull enough warmer air northward, esp if we have snow on the ground, to produce severe thunderstorms..
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December temperature and precipitation review.
One of the warmest in recorded history.
A large chunk of the nation recorded their warmest December since 1893. Number one represents the warmest.
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Rain totals
Summary. Double click on images to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers January 3rd through January 8th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers January 10th through January 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers January 11th through January 24th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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ZoomRadar
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