December 28, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.

Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.

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48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Tuesday. Tuesday night. Friday night and Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Wednesday across southern portions of Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The risk appears low. I am monitoring Friday night into Saturday, as well. That risk could be slightly higher, but the warm front may stay too far south to produce severe weather locally. It is important to monitor updates concerning the Friday night and Saturday time-period. Adjustments are certainly possible.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Some nuisance flooding will be possible. A few ditches and poor drainage areas.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. Perhaps Saturday night and Sunday/Sunday night.

5. Is measurable snow in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates. Some snow showers are possible Sunday but ground temperatures will be warm. I can’t rule out some light dusting on elevated surfaces (if snow showers develop). I was watching Monday/Monday night for a second system. Confidence in that remains low.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Unlikely. Monitor. Some snow showers can’t be ruled out Saturday night and Sunday and then again Monday/Monday night.

December 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A bit more sun south of the warm front across our southern counties. Windy south of the warm front. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. A wide spread of temperatures from north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 52° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph with gusts south of the front above 30 mph. North of the front the winds will be variable in direction.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 70° wide range depending on your location north or south of the warm front which will be located over the northern quarter of the area.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: A wide range of temperatures north and south of the warm front which will be located over the northern quarter of the region. Mostly cloudy before midnight. Some clearing late from west to east. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation ending west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous the first half of the night. Tapering overnight.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 40° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 44° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: West southwest becoming west northwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B the first half of the night and monitor radars
Moonrise: 1:10 AM
Moonset: 12:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 29, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A wide range of temperatures across the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 54° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 56° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: East at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 68° Wide range.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms. Cooler north vs south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 36° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 42° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 46° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Winds will be from the: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 2:19 AM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 30, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 42° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:33 AM
Moonset: 1:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 31, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain could cause ponding of water on roadways and ditch flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower or snow shower. Much colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor for black ice on bridges and overpasses.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Snow showers possible. Much colder. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 34° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Northwest and north at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty. Cold wind chill values.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps some black ice early in the morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold. Cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Flurries, at best.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 25° / South IL 20° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° / West KY 20° to 25° / NW TN 20° to 25°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 22°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
Moonset: 4:42 PM
The phase of the moon: New

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through January 5th: I am monitoring Wednesday. Wednesday’s concern will mainly be northwest Tennessee and extreme southern Kentucky into the Missouri Bootheel. A low-end risk of damaging wind gusts.

I am monitoring Friday night and Saturday. There could be some intense thunderstorms. Confidence in severe thunderstorms remains low.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. A roller-coaster ride in the temperature department. Swings.
2. Periodic rain chances this week. A few thunderstorms.
3. Monitoring Friday and Saturday for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A complicated forecast, especially when it comes to the high and low temperatures.

This will be a changeable forecast, so I encourage everyone to monitor updates.

Today and tomorrow:

A warm front is situated across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This warm front is slowly moving northward. Temperatures north of the front will be quite a bit colder than south of the front. As a matter of fact, some of our northern counties may not reach 50 degrees today. Meanwhile, southern counties will be in the warm sector and could reach 70 degrees.

Here is the temperature spread today.

There will be a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms today. No severe weather. Thankfully.

See the Weather Observatory radars to track the precipitation (scroll down for those links).

Highs today will range from the middle to upper 40s north to around 70 degrees south! A large spread in the temperature department.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. They will taper west to east overnight.

More showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Chances will be higher after 11 AM Wednesday vs before 11 AM.

The Storm Prediction Center has even outlined a risk of severe thunderstorms for the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee and southern Kentucky. This seems a tad too far north, but with that said, we should monitor updates.

A couple of severe thunderstorms could approach our southern counties. The primary concern would be wind gusts above 55 mph. A small tornado risk in bowing line segments (if they develop). As always, monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather blog.

Rain will taper west to east Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night should be dry with even some sunshine.

We will have to deal with gusty winds into the weekend. Occasional gusts above 30 mph will be possible.

The region will be near a warm front Friday and Friday night.

A few showers are possible during the day Friday. Scattered.

Rain chances quickly ramp up Friday night into Saturday evening. Becoming widespread. Rain totals, in some locations, may exceed an inch.

A stronger storm system, with an area of low pressure, will bring a strong cold front into the region Saturday.

You can see that on this weather map.

Blue is snow. Green and yellow/orange represents showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible just to our south Friday night/Saturday.

Whether they spread into our region is still a question. I would encourage you to monitor updates as we draw closer to that time-frame.

Check out the temperature spread on this map animation Friday night into Saturday night.

Watch the cold air push into the region behind the cold front. Much colder air pours into the region behind the front.

Oddly enough, temperatures will only be close to average. I know it has been a long time coming. We knew eventually it would become colder. The cold won’t last. A warming trend is likely by Tuesday.

Sunday will be colder with highs only in the 30s. A few snow showers will be possible Saturday night/Sunday.

At this time, accumulation is not anticipated. Perhaps a dusting on elevated surfaces.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.