December 27, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.

Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.

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48-hour forecast

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Tuesday. Tuesday night. Friday night and Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Friday night/Saturday.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. Perhaps Saturday night.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Unlikely.

December 27, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mild. Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower. High temperatures may be during the morning and then falling afternoon temperatures over most of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (mainly over our eastern counties)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph. Wind becoming west northwest as the front sags southward.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Patchy fog. Showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 46° to 52° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Northeast to east 5 to 10 mph with gusts above 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the radars.
Moonrise: 12:04 AM
Moonset: 12:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. A wide spread of temperatures from north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph with gusts south of the front above 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation ending west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous the first half of the night. Tapering overnight.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 36° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: West southwest becoming west at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B the first half of the night and monitor radars
Moonrise: 1:10 AM
Moonset: 12:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 29, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. A wide range of temperatures across the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 46° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 52° / South IL 48° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 65°
Winds will be from the: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 60° Wide range.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 30° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 35° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 40° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 2:19 AM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 30, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:33 AM
Moonset: 1:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 31, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

January 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower or snow shower. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:49 AM
Moonset: 2:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through January 5th: I am monitoring December 31st into January 1st. There could be some intense thunderstorms. Confidence this far out, however, is low. Monitor updates moving forward.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. A roller-coaster ride in the temperature department. Swings.
2. Periodic rain chances this week. A few thunderstorms.
3. Monitoring Friday and Saturday for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A complicated weather pattern for the next seven days.

This will be a changeable forecast, so I encourage everyone to monitor updates.

I am keeping a close eye on a strong weather system this coming weekend. More about that later.

Today and tomorrow:

A warm front has been moving northward through the region over the past 12 hours. Temperatures overnight actually rose in most areas.

You are waking up to temperatures in the sixties! Just incredibly mild for the end of December.

Average lows should be well down into the twenties. Not so today.

Check out how many degrees above average we are waking up to. This is really amazing considering how warm December has been.

Many areas are experiencing their warmest December since 1883.

Check out the monthly anomalies. Extremely high for a monthly average.

There is also some fog this morning north of the warm front.

Highs today will range from the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. A few locations could reach record levels, but for the most part we will fall just short of that.

A few light showers are possible today, but nothing of significance.

The weather becomes a bit more complicated tomorrow. A front will be in the region. This front will stall briefly and then move back north as a warm front.

Widespread rain will likely develop along and north of the warm front with more scattered activity south of the front. The exact placement of the front will also impact high temperatures on Tuesday.

Warmer south of the front.

A few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night, but nothing severe. Thankfully.

Watch for large temperatures gradients north and south of the frontal boundary. This will make for a tricky temperature forecast.

Scattered showers are likely Wednesday and perhaps Wednesday night, as well. Some tapering of the precipitation Wednesday night.

Dry conditions are likely Thursday and Thursday night.

A deeper area of low pressure will take shape Friday and Saturday.

There remain significant questions about the path of this storm.

If the EC is correct then there is no threat of severe weather over most of our region. If the GFS model is correct then the entire region would have a risk for intense thunderstorms.

At this time, it is pointless to try and make a solid forecast based on the model runs. There is just too much variation to make a call.

We will know more by Wednesday and definitely by Thursday.

I need to see model guidance and ensemble data to merge on one solution or something close. Then, and only then, will confidence increase.

What is for certain is that widespread precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday night. Locally heavy rain will be possible.

Let me show you the difference between the track of the low on the GFS (way north) and the EC model (way south).

The red L is the area of low pressure.

If it tracks north then we have thunderstorms. If it tracks south then we have mostly a chilly rain and maybe even a brief wintry mix.

GFS takes the low through northern Missouri.

EC takes the low south of us.

If enough cold air pours into the region, then the rain may briefly change to a wintry mix. For now, accumulation appears unlikely, but I will be closely watching that, as well.

There is a possible second system Sunday or Monday that needs to be monitored. That one would track further south. With cold air in place there could even be some snow showers with it. Something I am monitoring, but that is too far out for any certainties.

Quite a bit to watch. Highly uncertain outcomes.

I strongly encourage everyone to STOP following pages that hype every weather event past day three or four. They are simply trying to scare people into clicks and likes. It is irresponsible to tell people December 10th is going to happen all over again.

December 10th was an extremely rare event. A tornado on the ground for hours and hours is rare.

If severe weather or winter weather becomes likely, then you can count on your trusted sources to tell you that. Any forecast past day three or four is very low confidence. You might as well be throwing darts at a board.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.