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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. I am watching next Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor next week.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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December 23, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: South southeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 10:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 24, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. Mild for December. Gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 56° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:57 PM
Moonset: 11:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 25, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Record highs. Warm. Gusty winds. Temperatures may fall over the northwest half of the region as a cold front pushes across the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:00 PM
Moonset: 11:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 26, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 44° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 11:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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December 27, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:04 AM
Moonset: 12:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:10 AM
Moonset: 12:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through December 29th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Strong warming trend.
- A few clouds with patchy light rain possible Friday and Friday night.
- Record warmth for Christmas.
- Several systems to monitor next week and the week after.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
The primary weather story through Saturday will be warm temperatures and windy conditions.
Winds may gust above 30 mph over the next few days.
There will be an increase in clouds as we move through today and tonight. Those clouds may linger into Saturday. Southerly winds will bring a bit more moisture northward. Thus the clouds.
Patchy light rain showers can’t be ruled out tomorrow and tomorrow night (Friday). Overall, dry conditions are likely Saturday. A small chance of a light shower.
Very warm conditions with record highs Saturday.
Highs today will mostly be in the 50s. Expect 60s tomorrow and 70s by Saturday. These are large anomalies.
Let’s look at that
Today
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Friday
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Saturday (cold from bisects the area). Colder north. Warmer south.
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Sunday
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Let’s look at the anomaly map. Keep in mind, average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees with average lows in the 20s.
Today
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Friday
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Saturday
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Sunday
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Monday morning (very large anomalies)
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A cold front will push across the region Christmas Day. Notice the temperature difference from northwest to southeast.
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Let’s look at December 1st through yesterday.
The anomalies have been significant nation-wide. Unusual, to say the least.
High temperature anomaly for the month, thus far.
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The mean of high and low temperatures. These are significant anomalies.
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Let’s look at the last thirty days in the rainfall department. Our region has experienced several periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Here is the monthly anomaly (how much above or below average are we).
A series of systems will develop over the next two weeks.
The biggest question is how many pieces are ejected into our region. If a larger system ejects then the risk of thunderstorms will increase. We will need to monitor this portion of the forecast.
This is the GFS model. Keep in mind, a lot of this is in the long range. Confidence decreases past day five.
December 27th
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December 28th
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December 30th
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December 31st
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January 7th
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM.
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 23rd through December 29th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers December 30th through January 5th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers December 4th through January 17th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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