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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. I am watching next Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor next week.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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December 22, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph with some higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 28° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:52 PM
Moonset: 9:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 23, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 10:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 24, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. Mild for December. Gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Clearing. Gusty winds, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:57 PM
Moonset: 11:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 25, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Near record highs. Warm. Gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:00 PM
Moonset: 11:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 26, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 44° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 11:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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December 27, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A 20% chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:04 AM
Moonset: 12:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:10 AM
Moonset: 12:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through December 27th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Chilly today followed by a warming trend.
- Dry weather through Thursday night. Gusty winds, at times.
- A chance of a few showers Friday during the day.
- Dry Friday night through Sunday night.
- I am monitoring Monday through Wednesday for some showers and possibly thunderstorms. Mild weather.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
I increased Saturday’s temperatures. Just amazing. Thankfully, no severe thunderstorms.
Thank you to everyone helping in the tornado zone. There has been an overwhelming amount of support. It is all appreciated.
I have been able to spend my days helping. Thank you for your support of WeatherTalk, because I work for you and your support allows me to help out.
I have been in the battery, flashlight, and toy section of one of the distribution centers.
Mostly quiet weather will be with us through Sunday night. A great week for travel.
There is a low-end chance of a few showers along a weak cold front Friday.
I know it will be unseasonably mild Thursday into the weekend, but severe thunderstorms are not in the cards. The cold front is just not that strong.
Friday’s rain totals will average less than 0.15″. Much of the region may actually remain dry. A few showers.
There is a small chance of showers Monday and then increasing chances Monday night into Wednesday.
It does appear that a series of systems will impact the region over the coming two weeks. Each one may produce showers and perhaps even some thunderstorms.
Our mild weather will continue into the foreseeable future.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE FUTURE-CAST RADARS
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them. These images will be updated during the evening hours this week so that I can help with the tornado recovery.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 33 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 21st through December 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers December 28th through January 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers December 4th through January 17th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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