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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today into Saturday morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Medium risk. A few locations could have some runoff issues as locally heavy rain today and tonight.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Monitor. There is a low chance of wintry precipitation Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. A weak system is forecast to move northward out of the Gulf Coast states. I will monitor trends. Low-risk, for now.
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December 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A large temperature spread north to south.
Here is the temperature spread
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 50° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms (not severe).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
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Another large temperature spread.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 38° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 5:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers. Mainly during the morning hours. Falling temperatures from northwest to southeast through the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 24° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:15 PM
Moonset: 6:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 25° / South IL 22° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° / West KY 22° to 25° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:02 PM
Moonset: 7:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Light and variable wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 26° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 32° / West KY 26° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:55 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 50° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° / South IL 50° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 28° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:52 PM
Moonset: 9:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 22, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 50° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° / South IL 50° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 28° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:53 PM
Moonset: 9:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through December 20th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Cooling trend.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances.
- Locally heavy rain.
- We are not anticipating severe thunderstorms this week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
A cold front moved through the region yesterday. The front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. There was no severe weather, but there was lightning and locally heavy downpours.
The front pushed south overnight and is now moving back northward as a warm front.
The bulk of the precipitation is to the south of the front. That will spread northward today. Expect widespread precipitation into tonight.
Some of the rain could be heavy.
The red zone on this weather map indicated a zone where some heavy rain may occur and perhaps some localized flooding.
There will be NO severe weather with this event.
The front, as of 7 AM, was draped just to our south.
There is quite a bit of warm air ahead of the front and cooler behind the front.
Watch the temperatures over the coming 48 hours. You can see the milder air surges northward today and then cold air filters in behind the system tomorrow. More seasonable temperatures are expected Saturday into next week.
Double click on the animations to enlarge them.
The front will push southward tomorrow and the rain will end during the morning hours.
You can see the cold front on this weather map pushing off to the east/southeast. Expect some rain in the AM hours, but then the bulk of the PM should be dry. Perhaps a couple of showers remaining over western Kentucky and Tennessee.
There could be some locally heavy rain. I have been forecasting a widespread one to two inch rain event. Locally heavier totals are likely where showers and thunderstorms train over the same area repeatedly. We call that training precipitation.
Rain totals between yesterday and Saturday will likely range from 1.00″ to 2.00″ with locally higher totals likely.
The WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast shows some spots exceeding two inches. Here is their rainfall forecast map.
The WPC/NOAA has placed our area in a level one and two flood risk for today and tonight.
A level one and two threat means that there could be a few spots with ponding of water on roadways, ditches flooding, creeks and streams will rise, and so on.
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Sunday and Monday morning temps will be chiller.
And Monday
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I am forecasting Saturday afternoon through Friday to be dry and cooler.
I am watching Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for a weak system to bring some precipitation.
The GFS shows it and the EC model.
GFS
And the EC model
Could that be snow? There is a 20% chance of that and 80% chance that it would be rain (if there is a system).
I will keep an eye on it.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them. These seven graphics are from Thursday. They won’t be updated today because I will be helping with the disaster relief.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 33 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 17th through December 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers December 24th through December 29th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers December 31st through January 13th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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