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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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Peak wind gust forecast
Wind advisory zone.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Wednesday night into Friday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Medium risk. A few locations could have some runoff issues as locally heavy rain occurs later this week. Widespread flash flooding is unlikely.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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December 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Windy, at times. Intervals of clouds. A chance of a few showers. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 68° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 20 to 40 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower (mainly late). A thunderstorm will be possible (not severe). Mild for December. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South at 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:30 PM
Moonset: 3:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 65° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 15 to 25 mph becoming west at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers. A thunderstorm will be possible (not severe).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: East northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Moonset: 4:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms (not severe).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 5:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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December 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers. Mainly during the morning hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 1 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 24° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:15 PM
Moonset: 6:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:02 PM
Moonset: 7:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Light and variable wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 25° to 30° / NW TN 25° to 30°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:55 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through December 20th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm temperatures.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up tonight into Friday night.
- Locally heavy rain.
- We are not anticipating severe thunderstorms this week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
A windy day is on tap for the region. Unseasonably mild, as well.
Gusty winds will continue into tonight. Expect 20 to 40 mph winds. These are not associated with severe thunderstorms.
The strong and gusty winds are because of a tight barometric pressure gradient. A deep low is developing to our west/northwest. It will track well outside of our region.
You can see those isobars on this morning weather map. Notice how tightly packed together they are. That is an indication of high winds at the surface.
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Here is the NAM model wind gust map. You can see some pretty big wind gusts.
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There will likely be a few showers in the region today. Widespread rain will hold off until tonight and tomorrow.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday night into Friday night. There will be on and off periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be locally heavy.
The good news is that we are not expecting severe weather in our local area. Thankfully.
There is a rare December moderate risk in Minnesota today. This is something that just doesn’t happen this late in the year in that region.
As a matter of fact, Minnesota has never recorded a tornado during the Month of December.
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There will be periods where it does not rain, as well. It will come in waves. See the future-cast radars further down in this blog update.
Rain totals between now and Saturday will likely range from 1.00″ to 2.50″ with locally higher totals likely.
The WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast shows some spots exceeding two inches. Here is their rainfall forecast map.
Zoomed in. Notice there are some three inch totals on the forecast map.
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The WPC/NOAA has placed our area in a level one flood risk for Thursday and then Friday, as well.
A level one threat means that there could be a few spots with ponding of water on roadways, ditches flooding, creeks and streams will rise, and so on.
Friday’s flood outlook. A level one threat. One is the lowest on the scale.
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Rain chances will remain with us into Friday night. The system will depart Saturday. Expect some rain in the region Saturday morning, but ending west to east.
Again, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated with this system. There will be some loud thunder.
Colder air will arrive in the region Friday night and that colder air is going to stick around into next week. At this time, no snow or ice in the forecast.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them. These eight graphics won’t be updated today. I will be out helping with the tornado recovery.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 33 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 15th through December 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers December 22nd through December 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers December 28th through January 10th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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