December 14, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Wednesday night into Friday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. A few locations could have some runoff issues as locally heavy rain occurs later this week. Widespread flash flooding is unlikely.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

December 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Mild for December. A chance of isolated showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:03 PM
Moonset: 2:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Windy, at times. Intervals of clouds. A chance of a showers. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 15 to 35 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower (mainly late). A thunderstorm will be possible (not severe). Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:30 PM
Moonset: 3:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming west at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers. A thunderstorm will be possible (not severe). Rain may mix with snow over our northern counties. No accumulation expected.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Moonset: 4:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 58° to 52° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms (not severe).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: West 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 5:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (ending)
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 24° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:15 PM
Moonset: 6:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

December 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly. A slight chance of rain and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 7 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 32°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the chance of rain/snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:02 PM
Moonset: 7:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

December 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain or snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 25° to 30° / NW TN 25° to 30°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:55 PM
Moonset: 8:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through December 20th: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Warm temperatures.
2. Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances.
3. We are not anticipating severe thunderstorms this week.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

We are going to experience mild conditions over the next few days. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. Average highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees. We will be well above that.

It will feel more like spring outside than winter.

Strong and gusty winds will develop over the next 24 to 36 hours. As a matter of fact, a wind advisory may need to be issued Wednesday. Expect wind gusts of 15 to 35 mph with the potential of some gusts exceeding 40 mph.

Here is the NAM model wind gust forecast animation. It shows some peak winds over 40 mph. Check out northwest Missouri and Iowa woosh. Some very strong winds from this tightening pressure gradient. A deepening low pressure center is the reason for the winds.

We are fortunate that this event isn’t going to product another round of severe thunderstorms. Something to be thankful for. Dew points just won’t quite be high enough for severe weather.

Double click to enlarge the animation.

We will have a chance of some patchy sprinkles or light showers today. Most of the region will remain dry today. A few spots may have enough rain to dampen the road.

A few scattered light rain showers will be possible tonight, as well.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday and especially Wednesday night into Friday night. Periods of widespread rain will likely occur in our local area. Please see the future-cast radars further down in the blog. You can see how the precipitation comes in waves.

There will be periods where it does not rain, as well. It will come in waves.

A front will stall out next our region Thursday and Friday. As it wavers north and south, there will be periods of showers and thunderstorms.

Rain totals between now and Saturday will likely range from 0.80″ to 1.60″ with locally higher totals likely.

The WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast shows some spots exceeding two inches. Here is their rainfall forecast map.

They have placed our southern counties in a low-end risk of flooding Thursday.

A few showers will remain into Saturday as colder air arrives. It appears the chance of a wintry mix is low with this event. I can’t completely rule out a flurry or sleet pellet at the end of the precipitation (Saturday afternoon/evening). Nothing of significance.

We should have dry conditions Sunday. Colder.

I am not tracking any snow or ice storm events, at this time.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.