December 10, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Severe Thunderstorms are possible Friday night. Monitor updates via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated. Link CLICK HERE FOR THE LIVE BLOG

There will be a strong CAP Friday/Friday night. This could help keep thunderstorms from forming. There remain questions about how this event unfolds or does not unfold. Monitor updates. Check your app from time to time for new messages.

Some tips for using the app.

Make sure your payment information has been updated. We have several with declined cards.

Log into www.weathertalk.com and then click the payment button. Your account will show yellow at the bottom if your account has expired.

.
48-hour forecast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday and Friday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Friday night. Monitor updates. All modes of severe weather will be possible. High wind, hail, and tornadoes.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Friday night. Heavy rain is likely in some locations. This could cause ponding of water, ditches to flood, creeks to rise. Monitor updates.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

December 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
.
The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated. Link CLICK HERE FOR THE LIVE BLOG
.
Friday Forecast: Patchy morning dense fog. Increasing clouds. Very warm. Near record highs. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monitor updates. Breezy, at times. There will be a strong CAP Friday/Friday night. This could help keep thunderstorms from forming. There remain questions about how this event unfolds or does not unfold. It is possible we avoid a larger severe weather event if the CAP holds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time but more likely in the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars and updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
.

Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 20 to 40 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Large hail. Damaging wind. Tornadoes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates concerning severe thunderstorms.
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 11:46 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

December 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cooler. A chance of early morning showers. Decreasing clouds through the day. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early in the morning (ending)
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 46° to 50° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
.

Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 25° to 30° / NW TN 30° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Winds calming overnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:50 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
.

Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 26° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 12:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
.

Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:39 PM
Moonset: 1:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
.

Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:03 PM
Moonset: 2:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:30 PM
Moonset: 3:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

.

.

.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Today through December 15th: The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated. Link CLICK HERE FOR THE LIVE BLOG

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Discussion

1. Mild today. Spring warmth.
2. Dense fog this morning.
3. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up Friday and Friday night. Ending Saturday morning.
4. Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible Friday night.
5. Damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes are possible. Especially Friday night into the wee morning hours of Saturday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

The LIVE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated. Link CLICK HERE FOR THE LIVE BLOG

There will be a strong CAP Friday/Friday night. This could help keep thunderstorms from forming. There remain questions about how this event unfolds or does not unfold. It is possible we avoid a larger severe weather event if the CAP holds.

SUBSCRIBERS: Download the WeatherTalk app.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

Friday morning.

Patchy dense fog this morning and drizzle. No severe concerns this morning.

Gusty winds are likely today into Friday night.

Wind forecast (gusts).

Friday afternoon and Friday night.

A severe weather event appears likely Friday night.

The tornado ingredient forecast has our region in the bulls-eye for the risk. I can’t rule out tornadoes from this event.

It is rare to have tornadoes in December. It is even rarer to have two tornado events in less than a week (in December). Very unusual weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has our region in an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Friday night. The bulk of this event may be after dark.

The enhanced region is the orange shaded zone. This is a level three out of five risk. Five being the highest risk.

If is possible they upgrade portions of the region to a moderate risk. That would be a level four. This graphic will change if they do upgrade us.

Either way, let’s not get caught up in the SPC colors. There will be a threat of damaging severe weather if the CAP breaks tonight. Whether we are in an enhanced risk or moderate risk, that won’t matter. A severe thunderstorm is a severe thunderstorm.

Zooming in on that map. The black outline is the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS forecast area.

We do have a CAP on the atmosphere. A CAP can keep storms from forming. A CAP is warm air aloft that helps keep air parcels from rising. They rise and hit the CAP and then sink. Thunderstorms are made up of rising thermals. If the thermal can’t rise then severe storms can’t form.

The struggle we are having is timing when the CAP breaks.

If the CAP breaks then severe thunderstorms will form.

All ingredients are there for damaging wind, large hail, and even tornadoes. Storms may be moving at speeds in excess of 60 mph. That means there will be a short amount of time to seek shelter. Be prepared in case severe weather develops.

There is concern the bulk of this event will occur at night.

Nighttime tornadoes account for 49 of the 57 fatalities in our region since 1996.

Have multiple ways of receiving severe weather information. Not just my weather app. Have other ways, as well. All technology can fail. Thus, having more than one source can help keep you safe.

Remember, a WATCH means to monitor updates. You don’t have to change your behavior for a watch. Be prepared.

A WARNING is more serious. A WARNING means severe weather is imminent in or near your location. A WARNING means to seek shelter.

Where is a safe place to hide when tornadoes threaten your location.

PWAT values will at the top of the chart with this event. That means plenty of moisture to work with. That equals locally heavy rain.

PWAT animation map. Watch the wave of higher PWAT values sweep through our region Friday and Friday night. Lot of moisture.

These are near record high PWAT values for the Month of December. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.

Dew points will be high, as well. This is a concern for severe thunderstorms.

Typically, I look for dew points of 58 degrees and above when considering severe weather. The record high dew point in Paducah is around sixty-six. We may approach that. Again, plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

Click animations to enlarge them.

Dew points will rapidly rise Friday/Friday night. Perhaps to near record high December dew points. The record high dew point in Paducah is 66 degrees (for December).

Bottom line:

Severe weather appears likely Friday night into early Saturday morning. Be weather aware and prepared to seek shelter in the event thunderstorms threaten your location.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.