December 7, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Friday and Friday night. Monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Friday/Friday night. Heavy rain is likely in some locations. This could cause ponding of water, ditches to flood, creeks to rise. Monitor updates.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Unlikely. Light snow or flurries will be possible Tuesday/Tuesday night and again Saturday night. Little or no accumulation is expected.

December 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Chilly. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain or light snow/flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cold. Cloudy with a chance of scattered rain showers. Rain may mix with or change to light snow or flurries with no accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 24° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A small chance of icy bridges.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:34 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of an early morning light shower or flurry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before noon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:18 AM
Moonset: 9:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars. Some rain is likely.
Moonrise: 11:54 AM
Moonset: 10:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Very warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time but more likely in the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars and updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 11:46 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

December 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: A chance of showers. Falling temperatures northwest to southeast as a cold front moves through the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 10 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 25° to 30° / NW TN 30° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:50 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 48° / West KY 45° to 48° / NW TN 45° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 26° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 12:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

This is an average for the region.

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through December 12th: Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday and Friday night. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Colder temperatures.
2. A few light rain showers or snow flurries Tuesday/Tuesday night.
3. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up Thursday into Saturday.
4. Heavy rain and severe storms Friday/Friday night.
5. Dry Saturday night into Monday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

We had several tornadoes Sunday night. There was one near Ledbetter that crossed the river and then dissipated. There were two tornadoes in western Kentucky (maybe four). There was at least one in southern Illinois.

Here are three of the tracks from the National Weather Service.

Kentucky

Illinois

Thankfully there were no injuries’. Some of the tornado warnings were issued well past midnight. It could have been worse.

If you remember, I was forecasting snow last week for tonight. That is still on track.

There is a lot of dry air for the precipitation to overcome. That means much of it will evaporate before reaching the ground. A few flakes, however, should make it to the ground.

This is not a significant event, by any means.

Some light snow will be possible tonight across the northern portions of southeast Missouri, northern portions of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky near the Ohio River.

Ground temperatures are warm. Little or no accumulation.

Dry weather Wednesday into Thursday. A slow moderating trend with temperatures.

Our next major storms system begins to take shape Thursday night into Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night. There has been a trend towards increasing the coverage of precipitation. Thursday night should not deliver severe thunderstorms. No concern about that.

On Friday, the weather becomes a bit more interesting.

A strong low level jet will develop. There will be plenty of warm and moist air streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

Gusty southerly winds will develop.

You can see those winds on this animation. Most of this arrives Friday into Friday night. Expect some wind gusts above 30 mph.

We have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday. Then, widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday night. There is a lot of moisture for this system to work with.

Locally heavy rain is likely. Some locations will pick up one to three inches of rain. This could cause some minor flooding in a few locations. This is especially true of areas that had locally heavy rain Sunday night. Monitor updates.

Here is the broad-brushed rainfall forecast for Thursday night through Saturday morning. Some locations will exceed these numbers.

One again, this event is centered more across our southeast counties vs northwest. There will be a wide range of rain totals from northwest to southeast.

PWAT values will at the top of the chart with this event. That means plenty of moisture to work with.

The stand deviation map for PWAT values is impressive. Two to four sigma above normal. That is extreme.

Here is the precipitable water forecast animation. Watch the surge of moisture move into the region Thursday night into Friday night.

Dew points will be high, as well. This is a concern for severe thunderstorms.

Typically, I look for dew points of 58 degrees and above when considering severe weather. The record high dew point in Paducah is around sixty-six. We may approach that. Again, plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

Temperatures Friday will be near record warmth. Expect upper 60s to middle 70s. The high temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and precipitation. If we have more clouds and rain, than anticipated, then that will shave a few degrees off the thermometer.

These numbers are unusual for the Month of December.

a few showers may remain in the region Saturday morning, but we should be drying out west to east.

Dry conditions are likely Saturday afternoon and that will continue through at least Monday.

Monitor updates concerning the Friday/Friday night system. I can’t rule out more severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes.

Still a few days to monitor trends.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.